Christmas Weather 2011 - A White One Or Not?

[Schnee]

Just want to mention that a bookmakers has 6-1 on it snowing on 25/12/11 and 12-1 on it not snowing on 25/12/11. I think their head office may read the Daily Mail

Edited September 20, 2011 by Stelmer

[johnholmes]

I'll post the last 7 days into here as a pdf during tomorrow with the issue for Tuesday looked at in a bit more depth for the winter period

[johnholmes]

The 2nd input using CFS daily raw output.

CFS for the winter with jh-issue 2-fri 16 september 2011.doc

[ZONE 51]

Thanks JH.

[MP-R]

I would like to enforce a ban of snow before December 15th at the very earliest, with an ideal starting date of 21st. Any earlier and there's a good chance the rest of the winter will be screwed.

[Guest]

I would like to enforce a ban of snow before December 15th at the very earliest, with an ideal starting date of 21st. Any earlier and there's a good chance the rest of the winter will be screwed.

Yes the problem is that if it snows too early there is more chance of it melting before the magic day.

[Stuart]

Our fifth update gives a slightly increased chance of Christmas snow this year. The reasoning for this is largely based on the amount of blocking which is now beginning to show up during late September, and how this matches the seasonal patterns we have experienced during the last few years. So the current forecast is for rather unsettled and possibly chilly weather (particularly in northern regions) with a risk of sleet or snow over higher ground.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 35%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2011

Update 2, 10/09/2011

Update 3, 13/09/2011

Update 4, 17/09/2011

Update 5, 25/09/2011

http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[johnholmes]

Maybe a touch out of place with all the heat over southern parts of the country but the weekly look at the raw CFS output. Previous posts can be found by scrolling back through this thread.

CFS for the winter with jh-issue 3-wed 28 september 2011.pdf

[Thundery wintry showers]

I would like to enforce a ban of snow before December 15th at the very earliest, with an ideal starting date of 21st. Any earlier and there's a good chance the rest of the winter will be screwed.

I don't think this rule really works. I remember a lot of posts about "ice in November to bear a duck, the rest of the winter will be slush and muck" last winter, and subsequent events appearing to "prove" them "right", but all we can reasonably say from the long-term stats is that it is exceedingly rare for severe cold weather to persist for more than two months. There is a strong association between cold Decembers and much warmer Februarys, but quite a lot of cold Decembers in the 1800s were followed by cold Januarys and some of the Februarys that followed were merely close to average.

[Stuart]

Forecast

Our sixth update gives a reduced chance of Christmas snow this year. The reasoning for this is largely based on the amount of high pressure blocking which has developed in recent days, and may continue on and off through much of the first half of October. If a more unsettled theme develops during the next week, and looks like persisting through the middle part of the month the next update may increase the Xmas snow risk. So the current forecast is for rather unsettled weather with close to average temperatures, giving a risk of sleet or snow over higher ground in the north.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2011

Update 2, 10/09/2011

Update 3, 13/09/2011

Update 4, 17/09/2011

Update 5, 25/09/2011

Update 6, 01/10/2011

http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[johnholmes]

Forecast

Our sixth update gives a reduced chance of Christmas snow this year. The reasoning for this is largely based on the amount of high pressure blocking which has developed in recent days, and may continue on and off through much of the first half of October.

http://theweatherout...eather-forecast

I am at a loss to see where the connection is for so far ahead?

Edited October 2, 2011 by johnholmes

[Isolated Frost]

Agreed John this seems to happen everytime now, if it's unsettled now they will predict it is unsettled at chrimbo, warm now, warm at xmas and same with cold, settled etc - I'm starting to lose some confidence with two if that is how their longterm predictions work...

[Costa Del Fal]

My thoughts exactly Last time i Checked, Christmas was in Late December now early to Mid October. Pointless forecasts. No need to say anymore.

[Aaron]

I am at a loss to see where the connection is for so far ahead?

I think it's to do with if the current set up were to last until December.. not sure though.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I would like to enforce a ban of snow before December 15th at the very earliest, with an ideal starting date of 21st. Any earlier and there's a good chance the rest of the winter will be screwed.

that is one of the falsest statements Ive ever seen on here, and I dont agree anyway, snow is great before 15th Dec, UK did very well before then last year

[Isolated Frost]

Between Halloween and New Years Eve is when I want snow most - the run up to christmas and anticipation is lovely! In January, we get the longer days and I usually want the sun and warmth back regardless.

[Aaron]

I want snow the most in January and February as it has a better chance of sticking around longer. Though I do like snow in December too due to the days being shorter and the sun lower in the sky.

Edited October 2, 2011 by Aaron

[Staffordshire]

Yeah I'd rather it in January/Febuary, hoping the runway will stay clear over crimbo!

I want snow the most in January and February as it has a better chance of sticking around longer. Though I do like snow in December too due to the days being shorter and the sun lower in the sky.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

agree with IF on this, snow between Nov and New years eve, longest nights, lowest sun, will melt less

[Aaron]

agree with IF on this, snow between Nov and New years eve, longest nights, lowest sun, will melt less

January and February are colder than December, snow is more prevalent in these months.

[Isolated Frost]

January and February are colder than December, snow is more prevalent in these months.

Yes, but your point was that it sticks around longer in Jan/Feb but with a lower sun and shorter hours, it lasts longer in Dec when it falls.

Also much prefer frosts inbetween Oct and Dec, it gives the ground a surreal crystal coat especially with decos around

[Aaron]

Yes, but your point was that it sticks around longer in Jan/Feb but with a lower sun and shorter hours, it lasts longer in Dec when it falls.

Also much prefer frosts inbetween Oct and Dec, it gives the ground a surreal crystal coat especially with decos around

No, I like the lower sun because it gives the impression of being in the Arctic or somewhere fabulous like that.

[Isolated Frost]

No, I like the lower sun because it gives the impression of being in the Arctic or somewhere fabulous like that.

I think I got the commas wrong - I meant to say that Dec has the lower sun and shorter hours that makes it look nice then

[I remember Atlantic 252]

January and February are colder than December, snow is more prevalent in these months.

not here its not, snow tends to thaw after mid Jan even if the air remains cold, where as in Dec it dosent

[Weather-history]

Its 12 weeks today to Christmas. Did anyone 12 weeks ago predict the current hot spell?

Answer: no

So any forecasts that are predicting Christmas Day weather now is twaddle, IMO.

One thing, we not had a very mild Chritsmas for a while. The last one was 2003 for this neck of the woods.

Edited October 2, 2011 by Mr_Data