Tropical Storm Lee

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 93L becomes a tropical depression in the GOM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL132011 700 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011 ..

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 91.4W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ----------------------

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[Paranoid]

Looks like we'll get TS Lee out of this system, unless 94L gets its act together very quickly. Still less than a week behind the 2005 season in terms of storm formation.

[Iceberg]

Not that it matters but I totally disagree with NHC calling this system, there is a bit of evidence that there might be 5mph west winds around an elongated centre, but no evidence that this centre is producing convective bursts or winds of 25kts.

Latest vortex gave max flight winds of 27kts (so maybe 20kts at surface) and this is down to the inherant instability of the region.

I think something will come of it, but not before the 20-25kts of shear starts to ease up maybe later today.

[Iceberg]

TD13 is finally getting it's act together and will be tropical storm lee at 4.00pm convection is slowly building over the centre as the shear lessens, with another 5-10kts of less shear this could really motor.

Despite this the rainfall from TD13 is going to be devestating for parts of the US.

[summer blizzard]

TD13 is finally getting it's act together and will be tropical storm lee at 4.00pm convection is slowly building over the centre as the shear lessens, with another 5-10kts of less shear this could really motor.

Despite this the rainfall from TD13 is going to be devestating for parts of the US.

Convection looks very widespread and intense now with rainfall already just off the coast. Looks like there will definitely be flooding in New Orleans and probably a heafty storm surge.

[Paranoid]

Just been upgraded to TS Lee. Link to the advisory below.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/021731.shtml

Edited September 2, 2011 by Paranoid

[Somerset Squall]

Convection looks very widespread and intense now with rainfall already just off the coast. Looks like there will definitely be flooding in New Orleans and probably a heafty storm surge.

Yes, flooding looks pretty much certain now, though there won't be much of a storm surge if Lee strengthens only as much as predicted. If Lee intensifies into a hurricane it may be a different matter. Nevertheless, flooding is going to be a serious issue from Lee over the next week.

[onlyME]

TS Lee is lacking convection its western and northwestern part.

I think it is lacking it because of some wind shear.

One thing which is good with Lee is that Lee will help to ease drought in Louisiana.

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

Shear is actually pretty low at the moment. My guess would be the poor upper level divergence caused by an upper level low (ULL) near the LLC, supressing convection. However, Lee appears to be absorbing the ULL. This could temporarily disrupt development IMO, as Lee then sorts out it's inner core.

[knocker]

Latest enhanced WV with New Orleans radar with sat overlay.

[Somerset Squall]

Lee has strengthened a little to 40kts. Lee's setup is very strange. We have a huge swathe of convection east of the LLC (which is going to be a problem for the Gulf Coast), and a small ULL to the west of the LLC. It appears the convection is trying to wrap around the ULL, encircling the nearly entirely exposed LLC. Whilst the ULL is there and the LLC remains exposed, Lee won't be able to strengthen much more. For now, the ULL will continue to pump dry air over the LLC, leaving the deep convection to reside to the east.

[Cookie]

[knocker]

WTNT33 KNHC 030323

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 6...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011

1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE IN SUMMARY SECTION

...LEE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS

OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.2N 91.6W

ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE

ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA

BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING

THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY

YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. LEE IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY

ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING

THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE

TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN

LOUISIANA LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...

325 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A WIND

GUST TO 41 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT IN NEW

ORLEANS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS IS 1000 MB...29.53

INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN

ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN

MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE

ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO

CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE

POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS

3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS

MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND

ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE

PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI

AND ALABAMA.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[Iceberg]

Recon have winds which support 50kts so NHC will probably raise him to this , pressure is also now sub 1000mb at 999mb, still an outside chance of ths making an hurricane in the next 24 hrs before it starts going down.

[knocker]

There have been some tornado warnings out around the New Orleans radar this morning. A couple on the latest run.

Edited September 3, 2011 by weather ship

[knocker]

Tornadoes and how much rain Lee will dump seem to be the main worries at the moment.

[Paranoid]

Lee reminds me a little of Allison in 2001; a very slow moving, large tropical storm that dropped large amounts of rain. Hopefully any flooding will not be as severe this time around.

[lfcdude]

hasn't the area been affected by drought? normally then rain would be good? but the ground will be hard and wont absorb the water.. so flooding will be a big issue i think.

[summer blizzard]

Flooding is a big issue, there are reports in excess of 8 inches at the moment.

Looks liek its about to make landfall however due to frictional forces, low speed and the land being marshy, substantial weakenign will not occur until it is picked up by the cold front.

[knocker]

Tropical Storm Lee spawns multiple tornadoes, flooding in New Orleans area; Jean Lafitte area evacuated

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2011/09/tropical_storm_lee_spawns_mult.html

Latest enhanced WV.

[knocker]

Tornadoes and flood warmings for an area NW of New Orleans.

[Cookie]

[Coast]

Lee Causes Wet & Windy Weekend for LA; Katia Weakens Temporarily

Windy and wet weather continues over Louisiana as Lee moves slowly northward. Lee has remained a tropical storm and never attained hurricane strenght. Lee has a large wind field, but the tropical storm force winds are not the kinds of winds that would cause major structural damage. Winds have gusted to 60 MPH at an offshore oil rig south of Sabine Pass with a sustained wind of 50 MPH. Winds on land have generally been less than that over water. The highest gust at the New Orleans Lakefront Airport (KNEW) was 55 MPH at 7:26 AM Saturday.

The image below taken at 7 PM EDT, September 3, 2011 shows wind gusts superimposed on radar data. The wind field is very large and spread out. For instance the winds at Pascagoula, MS were gusting to 36 MPH out of the SE at the same time, winds in New Iberia, LA were gusting out of the east at 39 MPH, while winds in Galveston were gusting to 41 MPH out of the NNW. So, don’t concentrate as much on the center of lowest pressure with the storm.

http://blog.myfoxhurricane.com/

[Cookie]

TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011

400 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT LEE IS

VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN

REDUCED TO 40 KT WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE SUSTAINED

SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS ARE

STILL OCCURRING AT ELEVATED PLATFORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. LEE

WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FLAT TERRAIN OF EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA

TODAY...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER

WATER. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY

THAN INDICATED BY THE TYPICAL INLAND DECAY RATE...AND THE INTENSITY

FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. BY 48 HOURS OR

SOONER...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN A

FRONTAL ZONE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS EXTRATROPICAL

TRANSITION TO HAVE OCCURRED BY THAT TIME. BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM

THOSE SAME GLOBAL MODELS...DISSIPATION IS LIKELY AFTER 96 HOURS.

THE CURRENT MOTION IS A NORTHWARD DRIFT OR ABOUT 360/2. LEE IS IN A

COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...I.E. WITHIN VERY WEAK

STEERING CURRENTS...AT THIS TIME. A TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL

U.S. IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE

FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE

NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE POST-TROPICAL

CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE LEFT AS IT MOVES ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE

OF THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE

SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND VERY

SIMILAR THEREAFTER. THIS IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS FORECAST.

SINCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE

CENTER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE

CENTER OF LEE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 29.6N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 04/1800Z 30.0N 92.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

24H 05/0600Z 30.3N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

36H 05/1800Z 30.8N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

48H 06/0600Z 32.0N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H 07/0600Z 34.5N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H 08/0600Z 37.0N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED