Model Output Discussion - September Onwards

[Northernlights]

Good morning. Just a quickie from me this morning.

In Summary GFS shows a very unsettled two weeks to come with the first week unsettled and windy with rain at times on a fresh to strong west airflow. In its second week the model brings the remains of an ex troipcal storm close to the North with severe gales and heavy rain for all.

UKMO shows an unsettled four or five days too withwest or SW winds and rain

at times.

ECM too offers much of the same and has downplayed the improvements progged previously for next weekend keeping the unsettled theme going through to the end of the run.

All in all a disappointing set of runs for those wishing for prolonged dry and warm harvest conditions. However, as we've seen this morning things can change and remain likely to change again so don't despair quite yet.

Gibby thanks for the model summaries especially with reference to harvest conditions as based on these we harvested two thirds of our crop last Thursday afternoon and evening with several contractors combines. Grain wet but still a good colour and will incur hefty drying charges but at least undercover safe from wind and rain and insured.Many anxious farmers in the northern half of the UK will be very grateful for all the information they get on this site as this has been a challenging summer.

[kold weather]

I've not been on here for a few weeks but whilst this may not be directly to do with the models, I thought I'd just share the wunderground website now has full ECM data with 3hr data, so in the future we'll know exactly what the ECM sughgests, and its in really high resoution as well.

[summer blizzard]

As i suspected yesterday, the models today have all but completely backed off the bombing low and ridge to the east and as a result have defaulted back to the previous outcome which is that from tommorow we get average/below average temperatures with hints that it could turn quite wet as we get a strong thermal gradiant over the UK.

Cool zonality probably sums it up best.

KW, good to see you back. Where you been.

[johnholmes]

I've not been on here for a few weeks but whilst this may not be directly to do with the models, I thought I'd just share the wunderground website now has full ECM data with 3hr data, so in the future we'll know exactly what the ECM sughgests, and its in really high resoution as well.

welcome back KW-have you got a link to that ECMWF output please?

[kold weather]

Yeah John, this is the main website:

http://www.wunderground.com

From there on, click on maps & radar tab, then a list comes down, click on model maps. Google Earth map will come up with a list on the right, go down to model data and some information shouls come down. There will be a line called model and you pick the ECMWF from there and play about with it from there.

It sounds long winded but it is very good and you can zoom in alot thanks to the high resolution of the data.

I can imagine its going to end all the arguements about what the ECM model is doing in terms of precip in the winter time!

Thought my first post back should be one that will help lots of people out.

[Frosty.]

According to the Ecm 00z, the weather is looking very unsettled until just before next weekend when we could have a more settled few days and warming up a bit before the next batch of bad weather rushes in off the atlantic, with the hurricane season getting into full swing, we can expect some vigorous depressions to be crossing the atlantic in the next 2-4 weeks but with northern britain likely to bear the brunt of the bad weather and the south tending to become more settled eventually but it's uncertain as to where the bad weather ends and the good weather starts, the line is blurred but probably a safe bet that the south midlands across to east anglia and southeast england will turn more settled in the extended range but with some chilly nights and ground frosts..compensated by some warm and sunny days but remaining unsettled and windier towards nw britain with only brief respite.

[phil nw.]

Yeah John, this is the main website:

http://www.wunderground.com

From there on, click on maps & radar tab, then a list comes down, click on model maps. Google Earth map will come up with a list on the right, go down to model data and some information shouls come down. There will be a line called model and you pick the ECMWF from there and play about with it from there.

It sounds long winded but it is very good and you can zoom in alot thanks to the high resolution of the data.

I can imagine its going to end all the arguements about what the ECM model is doing in terms of precip in the winter time!

Thought my first post back should be one that will help lots of people out.

Thanks for the link Kold,very usefull and welcome back too.

Looking at the ECM next week looks unsettled with rain moving through the UK most days.

As ever the West and North looking more unsettled.

[bluearmy]

Yeah John, this is the main website:

http://www.wunderground.com

From there on, click on maps & radar tab, then a list comes down, click on model maps. Google Earth map will come up with a list on the right, go down to model data and some information shouls come down. There will be a line called model and you pick the ECMWF from there and play about with it from there.

It sounds long winded but it is very good and you can zoom in alot thanks to the high resolution of the data.

I can imagine its going to end all the arguements about what the ECM model is doing in terms of precip in the winter time!

Thought my first post back should be one that will help lots of people out.

superb find kw. the best thing is that it only goes to T180 so we wont have deep fi being over analysed.

[Frosty.]

Not much change on the 12z output, a very unsettled week or so ahead, most of the rain becoming restricted to northern britain from midweek and a lull in the bad weather coinciding with next weekend although timings will change, the further outlook is poor for the north but less unsettled for the south and warmer at times in the south but cool to average further north...some vigorous lows possible in the next few weeks close to nw scotland.

[Gibby]

Good evening.

GFS has churned out another very unsettled run tonight with a distinctly Autumnal set of charts. From the early week on it looks windy and at times distinctly wet as low pressure sets up shop close to the north. On Friday the weakest of ridges give a better day before new low pressure moves in from the Atlantic with it's attendant rain and showers. Through FI tonight the output is mostly dominated by an ex tropical storm that moves in close to the UK bringing rain and gales before it fills and gradually moves away late in the run.

UKMO tonight shows an unsettled 6 days ahead with some rain in the east and far west tomorrow. Then after a showery Monday an active trough brings widespread rain and strong winds on Tuesday before the remainder of the run is characterised by a showery westerly flow giving way to a weak ridge ahead of the next low pressure system hot on it's heels by Saturday.

ECM tonight also shows a very unsettled week with some heavy rain and strong winds at times as various troughs run east in the flow of deep low pressure north of Scotland. By Friday a ridge of high pressure builds over the UK and settles things down for many for several days before a deep Atlantic low with some tropical elements in it's circulation arrives late next Sunday to promise a very wet start to the following working week.

In summary tonight things look very disturbed with rain and showers for all at some point and some strong winds at times too. In fact I have to go right out to t384 on GFS output to find a day which could almost be assured to stay dry everywhere. UKMO and ECM also offer little scope for prolonged dry weather apart from a 3 day window from Friday to Sunday next from ECM.

[Liam J]

A very unsettled outlook on the models this evening, heading into quite an active spell with heavy rainfall and gales in a very mobile westerly flow thanks to the jetstream. Certainly more interest to be had on the current outputs (if you like disturbed autumn weather)

BECO have a gale warning out from Monday onwards - http://www.beco.org.uk/

[Milhouse]

A very unsettled outlook on the models this evening, heading into quite an active spell with heavy rainfall and gales in a very mobile westerly flow thanks to the jetstream. Certainly more interest to be had on the current outputs (if you like disturbed autumn weather)

BECO have a gale warning out from Monday onwards - http://www.beco.org.uk/

Yes, a very disturbed week to come with bands of rain moving quickly west to east across the UK. The ECM, plus the ECM mean do offer hope of a much more settled spell next weekend with the 10c 850hpa line making a return to southern England. All the time the Atlantic remains very active but its the slight kinks in the jet stream that might encourage HP into the south in the not too distant future.

[Geordiesnow]

The emphasis on today's outlook has changed more into a sunshine and shower output although both the GFS and the ECM has a shortwave crossing the country on Thursday so theres the potential of it being a dull and wet day in the South with heavy rain but brighter and showery further North. The UKMO does not have any shortwaves but due to its lower resolution past 96 hours, experience tell me that the ECM/GFS will be closer to the mark.

Wet and windy sums it up but sunshine amounts should be more widespread in PM airmasses like on Monday, Tuesday afternoon(for those the further North and West you are!) and Wednesday and perhaps Thursday. So the outlook is certainly taking a more Autuminal outlook but the weather will be more eventful than this week has been for the majority.

[Isolated Frost]

Thanks for the wunderground link, rivals WeatherOnline and NetWeather's charts (of course the latter prevails!).

[Frosty.]

NW Scotland looks like taking a battering next week..a very autumnal outlook from all the models today apart from southern england which will be summery at times.

[Liam J]

GFS 18z continues the very disturbed outlook, maintaining a mainly west to east running jet stream over the uk with conditions favourable for some deep depressions to form.

It's looking very wet and windy on Tuesday with gales.

A lot happening this week thats for sure,also this storm would cause problems up north later this week if it were to verify...

Edited September 3, 2011 by james12

[johnholmes]

thanks Kold

[Aaron]

A very unsettled outlook on the models this evening, heading into quite an active spell with heavy rainfall and gales in a very mobile westerly flow thanks to the jetstream. Certainly more interest to be had on the current outputs (if you like disturbed autumn weather)

BECO have a gale warning out from Monday onwards - http://www.beco.org.uk/

I'm surprised the Met Office haven't issued an early warning.

[tinybill]

I'm surprised the Met Office haven't issued an early warning.

me thinks summmer over with or the warnings for this week

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here's a Sunday morning view of the 00z's of the big three.

GFS shows the working week to be unsettled and windy with deep Low pressure with bands of rain followed by showers affecting all parts at times. By Friday pressure rises for a while as a ridge moves in settling things down a little and warming things up in the SE as winds back SW. Lower pressure soon feeds back in from the west though with freshening winds and rain, especially in the North and West. Despite the wind it would feel warm and humid though quite cloudy in the south. Then after a cold front attached to a very deep depression North of Scotland sweeps through pressure rises substantially with a dry and settled end to the run under High pressure bringing settled and warm conditions with sunshine by day but local mist and fog patches by night.

UKMO also shows an unsettled working week with the most notable feature being the windiness of the weather everywhere from Tuesday. There will be some heavy rain and showers at times, though towards the end of the week perhaps less rain for the south as mild, humid but mostly cloudy conditions sweep NE for the start of the weekend.

The Fax Charts show an unsettled week too with strong winds at times, particularly midweek. A series of troughs give rain at times for all areas.

ECM shows an unsettled week with the same warmer air moving NE next weekend. This time though the model shows things could become more settled in the South and East with some very warm sunshine in the SE for several days. Western coasts and hills would more likely plagued with low cloud. coastal and hill fog and drizzle while rain at times continue further Northwest. By the end of the run the warmer weather is squeezed out by advancing Low pressure extending rain at times from the NW, SE to other areas too.

The changeable theme continues in the models today with an improvement possible next weekend when if ECM's evolution comes off it could become quite warm again for a while in the SE. The air though would be inherently humid though so sunnier skies would be harder to find away from the SE with cloud affecting coastal and hillier locations and the North and West would continue to see rain at times.

[Frosty.]

No change from the 00z, unsettled and windy at times through to midweek, then the worst weather becoming confined to the north with the south & east of england possibly warming up and settling down but a disturbed pattern for most of the uk in the next few days at least. The southeast is the only part of the uk to have had a reasonably good summer this year with most of the uk having the coolest summer since 1993..very disappointing and a classic example of a summer forecast going pear shaped.

[Backtrack]

I see Friday's low has now disappeared from the 06z run, which can only be a good thing really, as it was showing a sustained wind speed of 60mph for parts of Scotland.

[Frosty.]

I see Friday's low has now disappeared from the 06z run, which can only be a good thing really, as it was showing a sustained wind speed of 60mph for parts of Scotland.

Might it not return on the 12z? The 6z &18z are usually the most suspect gfs runs of the day, I think it's reasonable to expect a very unsettled week across the north, scotland especially and with strong to gale force winds at times in the north.

Edited September 4, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[Backtrack]

Might it not return on the 12z? The 6z &18z are usually the most suspect gfs runs of the day, I think it's reasonable to expect a very unsettled week across the north, scotland especially and with strong to gale force winds at times in the north.

Could do, but I doubt it.

There's a little ensemble support to back the low returning on future runs, but most of the data would go for low pressure yes, but nothing out of the ordinary such as the gale force winds the 00z was showing.

[Frosty.]

To sum up the model output so far today, northern & western britain are in the firing line for the bulk of the unsettled and at times windy weather whereas the south and southeast of england will have the driest and warmest spells between the rain bands which has been the case all through the summer and now into early autumn, it's tiresome but all too predictable.

Could do, but I doubt it.

There's a little ensemble support to back the low returning on future runs, but most of the data would go for low pressure yes, but nothing out of the ordinary such as the gale force winds the 00z was showing.

The latest meto update paints an unsettled and windy picture for the north of the uk until sometime in october but you could be right, there is nothing unusual about strong winds in september and there are no warnings issued for any unusually bad weather in the next 5 days...just typical early autumn weather with the north catching the worst of it.