Hurricane Maria

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 95L has become the fourteenth tropical cyclone of the Atlantic season mid-way between the coast of Africa and the Eastern Caribbean. The depression has persistant convection over the LLC and formative banding features evident on satellite imagery. I don't think it will be long before 14L becomes a tropical storm. 14L is set to strengthen over warm waters, low shear and in a moist environment. 14L will come uncomfortably close to the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands in a few days time, and 14L could well be approaching hurricane strength. Definitely one to watch.

[summer blizzard]

good potential down the road as it stays on a w or wnw track so gfs and ecwmf runs have all taken this past 70w before differing. main pitfalls though are shear to the north and an upper low to the west so this needs to stay slow and west.

[Cookie]

The Atlantic is on fire atm!!!

[Somerset Squall]

You can say that again Cookie! If the current rate of storm formation continues we may well need to crack out the Greek Alphabet this year for the second time in recorded history.

The current track forecast is quite brisk SB, so 14L may get into trouble with that ULL.

[Paranoid]

14L is looking fairly good today. Based on the satellite appearance i'd say we have TS Maria in the next 12 hours. Satellite estimates are in the range of 45-50kts at the moment (although IMO that's a little high).

[Paranoid]

Now TS Maria, initialised at 50mph (similar to Irene).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071457.shtml

[Somerset Squall]

Yes, we have Maria with intensity rising to 45kts. Conditions however, do not appear all that conducive for strengthening. Convection is pretty shallow near Maria's LLC, and shear is expected to rise to moderate levels over the next day or two, capping intensification. Maria is racing westwards at 20kts, and this isn't great for significant intensification either. However, a weaker Maria will mean the storm will gain very little lattitude over the coming days, and the eastern Caribbean need to pay close attention to Maria.

[summer blizzard]

good news, bad news.. bad news is that at 23mph and in high shear there is a 50% chance that it will not survive the next few days. if it does there is a small chance that haiti could kill it. good news is that if it survives then shear should weaken and upper high may develop. even better news is that it is already 10 degrees west of kalta at the same lattitude and still heading west. my conclusion is that maria will become a major hurricane and provided haiti does not kill it i am 70% confident of a florida hit. andrew 92 and francis 04 are anologues.

[Love Snow]

Hi all sorry to spoil the thread but I'm heading over to Cuba on friday for a two week break will this hurricane effect me?

Thanks in advance

[summer blizzard]

cuba will not be affected by maria or nate although it is probably the most likely time of year and this season is active.

[Somerset Squall]

good news, bad news.. bad news is that at 23mph and in high shear there is a 50% chance that it will not survive the next few days. if it does there is a small chance that haiti could kill it. good news is that if it survives then shear should weaken and upper high may develop. even better news is that it is already 10 degrees west of kalta at the same lattitude and still heading west. my conclusion is that maria will become a major hurricane and provided haiti does not kill it i am 70% confident of a florida hit. andrew 92 and francis 04 are anologues.

Why is that good news?

[Paranoid]

As a testament to how active this season has been, Maria and Nate are the second earliest forming 13th and 14th named storms on record respectively, behind only their namesakes in the 2005 season.

[Somerset Squall]

Maria continues to race westwards at 20kts. As a result, the LLC is becoming distorted and may no longer be closed. A recon plane is on the way to investigate Maria. There is every chances Maria will degenerate into an open wave this evening. However, conditions still appear modestly favourable in a couple days time for regeneration if Maria degeneates tonight.

[summer blizzard]

sattelite imagery is not good and maria is either a td or open wave although it has slowed. good chance of regeneration though.

[Somerset Squall]

Maria is hanging on as a tropical storm, with intensity falling to 35kts. Maria looked on death's door this evening but in the latest satellite imagery it can be seen that Maria is building convection near the small LLC again, something that has been lacking today. Maria is gradually slowing down and this should allow a better chance of survival. Track forecasts bring Maria through the Leeward islands and north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Maria is expected to strengthen as it passes north of Hispaniola as the upper level environment improves and the forward motion continues to slow.

[knocker]

Four Atlantic troplical storms in one image. (Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project)

[summer blizzard]

Tropical Storm Maria is definitely slowing now at less than 18mph and is also strengthening as surface pressures are dropping. Tropical Storm Maria is also forecast to become a hurricane as it approaches the Bahamas.

Still confident of the track although South Carolina may be in the fray more than Florida now.

Just checked the satelite and Maria is beggining to look very good indeed as you can see below. Recon should find a moderate Tropical Storm and i would say we could have a hurricane earlier than expected, possibly by the end of sunday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/ft-l.jpg

[summer blizzard]

Maria now apparently has the deepest expansion of -80C cloud temperatures of any storm all season.

Reading another forum, only 8 other storms since 1950 have formed within 5 degrees of where Maria did. Maria has the second lowest track (not even at 15N yet) and the average of the five that were near this postion was 83W which is south western Florida with all 5 making at least category 2 (Andrew obviously made category 5) and 3 made major staus.

What this means is that based on strong anologue evidence, Maria is likely to at least make category 2 (fairly likely based on current model output), but also hit the US (not currently forecast).

Can anybody post the model tracks?

Tropical Storm Maria is now a T3.0 storm on the Dvorak scale which makes it a moderate Tropical Storm.

On a side note, unlike the others this season, it is extremely good looking.

[Somerset Squall]

Maria has slowed to a 14kt heading and as SB has said, has built a lot of convection today. However, the LLC is still not defined. The lower forward speed and increasingly favourable outflow pattern as the ULL moves away should allow Maria to tighten up it's inner core and begin to strengthen. A recurve is expected well off the east coast of the USA as the familiar pattern of a trough breaking down the ridging occurs. However, Maria will still bring heavy rains to the eastern Caribbean over the next few days before lifting northwards.

[knightrider]

The Atlantic is on fire atm!!!

It appears to be turning out into the Atlantic jetstream by Thursday, what are the chances of this becomming a hurricane and heading towards the UK and we catch the tail end of it like Katia?

[evil monkey]

It appears to be turning out into the Atlantic jetstream by Thursday, what are the chances of this becomming a hurricane and heading towards the UK and we catch the tail end of it like Katia?

Only the GFS seems to be aiming Maria at the UK currently...

[knocker]

It appears to be turning out into the Atlantic jetstream by Thursday, what are the chances of this becomming a hurricane and heading towards the UK and we catch the tail end of it like Katia?

Very unlikely I would think.

Latest discussion.

WTNT44 KNHC 121441

TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011

1100 AM AST MON SEP 12 2011

MARIA CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL DISPLACED ABOUT A

DEGREE TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THIS LACK OF

ORGANIZATION...DVORAK NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE BEGUN TO

DECREASE AND A BLEND OF THESE YIELDS 45 KT FOR THE INITIAL

INTENSITY. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES ABOUT 25 KT OF

WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER MARIA...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN

UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N 65W. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT

WEAKEN THIS LOW UNTIL AFTER 24 HOURS...SO LITTLE INTENSIFICATION

SEEMS LIKELY UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME. EVEN AFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW

WEAKENS...MARIA WILL STILL ENCOUNTER 15 TO 20 KT OF WESTERLY OR

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE

EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THEREFORE THE NEW OFFICIAL

FORECASTS ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AT 36 HOURS AND NONE

AFTER THAT TIME. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH

48 HOURS AND THE LGEM BEYOND THAT TIME UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL

TRANSITION.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING ONLY SLOWLY WESTWARD AT AROUND

2 KT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...SLOWER AND WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE

PREVIOUS TRACK. DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD AND SLOWER INITIAL

MOTION...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ABOUT A

DEGREE TO THE LEFT OF AND IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE

THROUGH 48 HOURS. THROUGH 24 HOURS THE NHC FORECAST IS ALSO LEFT OF

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS TAKE MARIA

IMMEDIATELY NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER 48 HOURS THE NHC FORECAST IS

LARGELY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ADJUSTED TOWARD THE

NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION

CENTER AT DAYS 4 AND 5. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS FORECAST

ASSUMES MARIA WILL REMAIN A DEEP CYCLONE AND FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF

THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.

IF MARIA BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP

CONVECTION...IT COULD MOVE MORE WESTWARD THAN INDICATED HERE AND

WEAKEN OR PERHAPS EVEN DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE

NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 20.7N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 13/0000Z 21.1N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 13/1200Z 22.6N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 14/0000Z 24.5N 69.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 14/1200Z 26.5N 69.9W 50 KT 60 MPH

72H 15/1200Z 34.0N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

96H 16/1200Z 43.5N 57.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H 17/1200Z 54.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

[onlyME]

Maria is still slow moving storm with exposed LLCC on 21 N 68 W as seen on this microwave image.

[Somerset Squall]

Convection has built towards Maria's LLC this evening as a result of relaxing shear. Maria could finally strengthen to near hurricane strength if it finslly gets it's act together before shear increases again in 48hrs time. Bermuda need to watch Maria closely as the storm has been meandering but is now clearly heading northwards.

[knightrider]

Only the GFS seems to be aiming Maria at the UK currently...

And even the GFS only has it heading over the north of Scotland so almost no chance of it affecting the southern half of the UK I wish I lived in Scotland lol, at least they get some decent storms every once in awhile, having said that the GFS indicates that it's going to head north first then east across Greenland before it reaches Scotland IF it does indeed get that far which would mean it's travelled a long journey over cold waters which will probably means it'll loose most of it's intensity and it's still to even reach hurricane status in the tropics yet!