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Gulf Stream?


mardatha

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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

Hi, I'm new so excuse me if this is posted in the wrong place. I want to ask what is happening with the Gulf Stream? Some forums are saying it has stopped - surely that isnt possible for a major ocean current to just "stop" ? I got told at school ( a long time ago !) that if the GS ever moved or stopped then Scotland would turn into Siberia. I was about 10 and remembered it ever since because it sounded so terrible laugh.png But has it actually happened?

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

No. Simple as that. Don't believe The Day After Tomorrow either! wink.png

Edited by aaron
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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

Hi, I'm new so excuse me if this is posted in the wrong place. I want to ask what is happening with the Gulf Stream? Some forums are saying it has stopped - surely that isnt possible for a major ocean current to just "stop" ? I got told at school ( a long time ago !) that if the GS ever moved or stopped then Scotland would turn into Siberia. I was about 10 and remembered it ever since because it sounded so terrible laugh.png But has it actually happened?

It doesn't appear that we are in an ice age so i'm guessing not!

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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

Well I'm too old and ratty to care if I'm doomed really - but has the current stopped or changed or moved or anything at all? nea.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

Well I'm too old and ratty to care if I'm doomed really - but has the current stopped or changed or moved or anything at all? nea.gif

I think there has been suggestions that the gulf stream has infact slowed, but whether there's any scientific proof behind it to verify this, I don't know.

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Posted
  • Location: Queensbury, West Yorkshire. 327m (1,072ft) [top of road = 406m (1,332 ft)]
  • Location: Queensbury, West Yorkshire. 327m (1,072ft) [top of road = 406m (1,332 ft)]

SeaIce.jpg

All you have to do is look at the top March one to realise how much the gulf stream warms the UK and right past the arctic circle! If it wasn't for the Gulf Stream then it would be possible for northern Spain to see sea ice!

As for the state of the gulf stream, yes it has slowed quite dramatically in the past year or two! Whether this will effect us or not is still unknown because although it has slowed down, it still hasn't stopped completely!

There's a possibility that by late winter/early spring we might see cooler temperatures because less cold water is being replaced with warm water due to it slowing down, but I doubt this because it would probably have had an effect last winter as well so I wouldn't worry! tongue.png

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

SeaIce.jpg

All you have to do is look at the top March one to realise how much the gulf stream warms the UK and right past the arctic circle! If it wasn't for the Gulf Stream then it would be possible for northern Spain to see sea ice!

As for the state of the gulf stream, yes it has slowed quite dramatically in the past year or two! Whether this will effect us or not is still unknown because although it has slowed down, it still hasn't stopped completely!

There's a possibility that by late winter/early spring we might see cooler temperatures because less cold water is being replaced with warm water due to it slowing down, but I doubt this because it would probably have had an effect last winter as well so I wouldn't worry! tongue.png

Yup. If the gulf stream buggered off, the Irish Sea would probably freeze, as would the Baltic Sea and Arctic Sea Ice would probably extended to the coast of Norway! So annoying!

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Posted
  • Location: LANCS. 12 miles NE of Preston at the SW corner of the Bowland Fells. 550ft, 170m approx.
  • Location: LANCS. 12 miles NE of Preston at the SW corner of the Bowland Fells. 550ft, 170m approx.

Mardatha. When I was a student .... and that was a long long time ago .... we used to be puzzle over the notion of Continental Drift. Memos often tucked away in the back pages of a text book. Some simple evidence seemed to be there, but no mechanism had been found. Of course Continetal Drift has been subsequently well researched, understood and accepted and renamed plate tectonics. Or are there some who would challenge the findings?

So on to the Gulf Stream. Such an important subject in muy view.

Personally, up in these parts, I've found the last 3 awful summers and the last 2 cold winters "interesting". I've seen it written or heard it said, that if the Gulf Stream seriously slowed we could have a climate in the UK similar to that of Newfoundland. Now and then, when I remember, I've been comparing daily readings / forecasts between the UK and Newfoundland and we haven't been that much different this summer, certainly not up here in these chilly wet NW hills.

Seems simplistic, but, for starters, I can't see how we can lose so much ice in the Arctic so quickly without it having some sort of knock on effect on weather patterns elsewhere. While most uf us can only puzzle, I just hope some serious research is taking place and findings published. Does anyone have a link to any research already undertaken on the Gulf Stream?

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Location: Devon

Here are a couple of good links...

The RTOFS graphic displaying horizontal current (the current strength appears to have recently increased):

http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest

The NASA Earth Observatory graphic for sea surface temp anomaly:

http://earthobservat...1=AMSRE_SSTAn_M

The temp anomaly graphic appears to show a cooler band of water in the approx location of the Gulf Stream (highlighted within a red ring):

SeaSurfaceTemp.jpg

Edited by Cutty Dyer
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Posted
  • Location: Yatton
  • Location: Yatton

This debate seems to appear every year, last year it was Polish scientists claiming the coldest winter ever and that the gulf stream had stopped, I cant wait to hear this years tales of why this winter will be the coldest in history!

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

The atmospheric movements provide the warmth to NW Europe in Winter, not the Gulf Stream, if it was the Gulf Stream we'd be shrouded in fog 10 months of the year and I reckon much more rain. Having a very amateur interest in the weather I find that the Jetsream, the Gulf Stream are interchangeable on for instance the BBC. They are totally different phenomena in fact. The atmospheric heat transfer is what keep us from freezing over most winters. By way of example are we saying last December was because of the Gulf Stream running poorly? What about 1963? Or 1947? If that was the case weather prediction would be nice and simple. Have a read of this http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/pubs/Seager_etal_QJ_2002.pdf

Answers all questions very well.

For certain this will come up again and again as it is nice and simple argument for sensationalists, very simple cause and affect.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

The atmospheric movements provide the warmth to NW Europe in Winter, not the Gulf Stream, if it was the Gulf Stream we'd be shrouded in fog 10 months of the year and I reckon much more rain. Having a very amateur interest in the weather I find that the Jetsream, the Gulf Stream are interchangeable on for instance the BBC. They are totally different phenomena in fact. The atmospheric heat transfer is what keep us from freezing over most winters. By way of example are we saying last December was because of the Gulf Stream running poorly? What about 1963? Or 1947? If that was the case weather prediction would be nice and simple. Have a read of this http://www.ldeo.colu...tal_QJ_2002.pdf

Answers all questions very well.

For certain this will come up again and again as it is nice and simple argument for sensationalists, very simple cause and affect.

Thanks for posting this - I'm actually having an arguement with someone over on the Daily Mail forum because I've said that even if the Gulf Stream has slowed down, it's very unlikely that it's going to affect our weather. The paper you've posted only helps me prove the point I was making even more.

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL

The atmospheric movements provide the warmth to NW Europe in Winter, not the Gulf Stream, if it was the Gulf Stream we'd be shrouded in fog 10 months of the year and I reckon much more rain. Having a very amateur interest in the weather I find that the Jetsream, the Gulf Stream are interchangeable on for instance the BBC. They are totally different phenomena in fact. The atmospheric heat transfer is what keep us from freezing over most winters. By way of example are we saying last December was because of the Gulf Stream running poorly? What about 1963? Or 1947? If that was the case weather prediction would be nice and simple. Have a read of this http://www.ldeo.colu...tal_QJ_2002.pdf

Answers all questions very well.

For certain this will come up again and again as it is nice and simple argument for sensationalists, very simple cause and affect.

I would respond to this by saying that the gulf stream is a main driver of long term climate, while the atmospheric heat transfer you speak of affects the weather. Obviously a huge system such as the THC will take much longer for changes to occur within it as opposed to the relatively short term factors such as a southerly tracking jet stream, which can determine how cold a particular winter can be. As such, your question I "bolded" is highly out of context as you are placing words in other people's mouths; a climatic factor would not affect an individual winter.

Anyway, to the issue at hand, I do believe the gulf stream has slowed/changed course somewhat, but it is impossible to tell whether this is a long term thing, or a temporary blip. Also worth noting is whether changes in the gulf stream would affect the position of the jetstream, could less energy (in the form of heat) up north mean a more frequently tracking jet (as has occurred in the last few winters)? It's important to understand the driving factors behind the weather, and how interconnected they could be. Then you havew the issue of low solar activity, and how that might affect us.

Tl;dr - Yes, in my opinion, the gulf stream has slowed in recent years. Is it the sole cause of our recent colder winters? Probably not. Does a further slowdown have the potential to impact our climate significantly? Definitely. Will it continue to slow down? No one really knows. Will the other factors affecting our climate continue to be favourable for a colder climate (eg. low solar activity, southerly tracking jet)? Lets wait and see blum.gif

PS - This response was written having not read what I assume is a very long article (as I don't have time right now), and instead just what you posted. Will make sure I read it though over the next day or two though and respond accordingly.

Another idea I've heard knocking around is that a weaker gulf stream=less energy in the atlantic=fewer atlantic storms=greater prevalence of blocking (ie. greenland high). Not sure how well this corroborates, but it makes sense I suppose given the rather spectacular return of northern blocking in recent years.

Oh (sorry again for yet another edit), in response to the OP of whether "it has happened", no it certainly hasn't just yet. If it had, we'd certainly know about it and wouldn't need to ask! laugh.png

Edited by weatherguy
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

I would respond to this by saying that the gulf stream is a main driver of long term climate, while the atmospheric heat transfer you speak of affects the weather. Obviously a huge system such as the THC will take much longer for changes to occur within it as opposed to the relatively short term factors such as a southerly tracking jet stream, which can determine how cold a particular winter can be. As such, your question I "bolded" is highly out of context as you are placing words in other people's mouths; a climatic factor would not affect an individual winter.

Anyway, to the issue at hand, I do believe the gulf stream has slowed/changed course somewhat, but it is impossible to tell whether this is a long term thing, or a temporary blip. Also worth noting is whether changes in the gulf stream would affect the position of the jetstream, could less energy (in the form of heat) up north mean a more frequently tracking jet (as has occurred in the last few winters)? It's important to understand the driving factors behind the weather, and how interconnected they could be. Then you havew the issue of low solar activity, and how that might affect us.

Tl;dr - Yes, in my opinion, the gulf stream has slowed in recent years. Is it the sole cause of our recent colder winters? Probably not. Does a further slowdown have the potential to impact our climate significantly? Definitely. Will it continue to slow down? No one really knows. Will the other factors affecting our climate continue to be favourable for a colder climate (eg. low solar activity, southerly tracking jet)? Lets wait and see blum.gif

PS - This response was written having not read what I assume is a very long article (as I don't have time right now), and instead just what you posted. Will make sure I read it though over the next day or two though and respond accordingly.

Thanks Weatherguy, did you read the paper by the way, how did you find it, I'd be very interested?

Has the Gulf Stream slowed down in recent years, I've love to see the evidence, for instance the above 1 mm sea surface charts are not evidence, where are the measurements and when did it start?

Sun spot cycle relationship on the Gulf Stream is new to me. I would like to see a proper analysis but not from a blog, rather some institution before I am able to believe the Gulf Stream has slowed down, that it is linked in some way or part to Sun Spot cycle. I had beleived the warming of the Arctic might be slowing down the cold pools sinking and thus cutting off the driver from north to south, but hadn't understood that this was related to sunspots.

I suppose we will have to read up on it some more

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Posted
  • Location: Queensbury, West Yorkshire. 327m (1,072ft) [top of road = 406m (1,332 ft)]
  • Location: Queensbury, West Yorkshire. 327m (1,072ft) [top of road = 406m (1,332 ft)]

The atmospheric movements provide the warmth to NW Europe in Winter, not the Gulf Stream, if it was the Gulf Stream we'd be shrouded in fog 10 months of the year and I reckon much more rain. Having a very amateur interest in the weather I find that the Jetsream, the Gulf Stream are interchangeable on for instance the BBC. They are totally different phenomena in fact. The atmospheric heat transfer is what keep us from freezing over most winters. By way of example are we saying last December was because of the Gulf Stream running poorly? What about 1963? Or 1947? If that was the case weather prediction would be nice and simple. Have a read of this http://www.ldeo.colu...tal_QJ_2002.pdf

Answers all questions very well.

For certain this will come up again and again as it is nice and simple argument for sensationalists, very simple cause and affect.

What you said is right, but there's no denying that our climate would be much much cooler without the gulf stream!

When we get a decent easterly, it pretty much masks the effect of the gulf stream, and basically gives us a taster of what our winters should be like. Because in most cases during an easterly, it's not only the cold air that comes at us, it's the mild air lingering to our west that is directed away from us.

If the gulf stream was to stop completely, this would without doubt alter pressure patterns and atmospheric movements so it's hard to say exactly what would happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

Hi 19..

I think you might be missing the argument. When you say "When we get a decent easterly, it pretty much masks the effect of the gulf stream.." I am saying this is not the case. I am saying it masks the effects of the westerlies. The Gulf Stream still oporates at the same rate if we get an Easterly and it's not masked at all. So two things, the atmosphere and the ocean currents. Anyway still haven't seen the data on where the Gulf Stream is slowing down. I think this is pointless because there is too much confusion over the Gulf Stream and the predominate zonal westerlies, also called the Gulf Stream by nearly everyone. How often do I see nature shows on the SW of Ireland say, warmed by the warm air from the Gulf Stream. I am leaving it at that. Thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowageddon and a new ice age. Then a summer long bbq heatwave!
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL

Hi 19..

I think you might be missing the argument. When you say "When we get a decent easterly, it pretty much masks the effect of the gulf stream.." I am saying this is not the case. I am saying it masks the effects of the westerlies. The Gulf Stream still oporates at the same rate if we get an Easterly and it's not masked at all. So two things, the atmosphere and the ocean currents. Anyway still haven't seen the data on where the Gulf Stream is slowing down. I think this is pointless because there is too much confusion over the Gulf Stream and the predominate zonal westerlies, also called the Gulf Stream by nearly everyone. How often do I see nature shows on the SW of Ireland say, warmed by the warm air from the Gulf Stream. I am leaving it at that. Thanks

The only thing likely to effect the Gulfstream in the N. Atlantic would be global warming causing unpresedented melting of icecaps releasing unimaginable amounts of "fresh water" into the atlantic diluting the Salty current. We cant say that wont happen, because it could.. in a 100+ yrs time

There are lots of articles on the internet including this one on the bbc that refer to it as the Gulfstream http://www.bbc.co.uk...f_stream.shtml. What they really mean (and what most research based articles call it) is the NE Atlantic section of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) which is actually called the North Atlantic Drift or as researchers call it... Atlantic Meridonal Overturning Circulation.

If that stopped it would drop NW europe temperatures mainly during winter months by 2-5c and this wouldn't happen overnight. Nope, it would likely take up to two decades. And even then, researchers, going off global model forcasts are confident that global warming will actually offset some of the effects of the cooling.

But yes, in 10 to 20 years of the NAD stopping, you would likely see a few more winters akin to the eastern stats of US (New York etc in terms of severity temp/snow) and sometimes even as cold and Canada)... but not exactly an iceage.

Summers would still be tyical british summers abeit slightly more cooler than we get today biggrin.png. Here some nice articles for anyone interested to have a good read and digest :

http://www.noc.soton.ac.uk/ National Oceanography Centre webite

http://www.noc.soton...amme_colour.pdf PDF from Nation Oceanography Centre, southampton who work alongside NOAA, NASA and a few other entities

http://en.wikipedia....ine_circulation Wiki page

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/thc/ Brilliant webpage full of info about the THC from the Climatic Research Unit in Norwich which I'd reccomend all people read who know little about the Thermohaline Circulation. This is one of the first pages of info I read when trying to understand what the Gulfstream was and impacts.

good.gif

Edited by Snowmad79
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Posted
  • Location: Queensbury, West Yorkshire. 327m (1,072ft) [top of road = 406m (1,332 ft)]
  • Location: Queensbury, West Yorkshire. 327m (1,072ft) [top of road = 406m (1,332 ft)]

Hi 19..

I think you might be missing the argument. When you say "When we get a decent easterly, it pretty much masks the effect of the gulf stream.." I am saying this is not the case. I am saying it masks the effects of the westerlies. The Gulf Stream still oporates at the same rate if we get an Easterly and it's not masked at all. So two things, the atmosphere and the ocean currents. Anyway still haven't seen the data on where the Gulf Stream is slowing down. I think this is pointless because there is too much confusion over the Gulf Stream and the predominate zonal westerlies, also called the Gulf Stream by nearly everyone. How often do I see nature shows on the SW of Ireland say, warmed by the warm air from the Gulf Stream. I am leaving it at that. Thanks

Hmmm... You're right but that's pretty much what I said, or meant anyway :p when I said 'it's the mild air lingering to our west that is directed away from us'. I never said it masks the Gulf Stream, only it's EFFECTS on our temperature, which it does. Maybe I needed to expand by saying it masks it not physically such as the whole UK surrounded in sea ice etc. but temperature wise.

Obviously the gulf stream is still there, but when we receive a continental airflow there's nothing between us to prevent the cold hitting us. I don't know if this is the case with Ireland because as far as I know, the Irish sea is partly warmed by the NAD.

And the Gulf Stream and the PZWs are different things; one is an ocean current, and the other is an air current, even though they are linked in the way that the PZW brings us the Stream's warmth.

During blocking patterns, there are no westerlies above us anyway meaning the Gulf Stream barely effects us whatsoever, that's when we get truly cold weather across the whole of the UK and Ireland.

The only thing likely to effect the Gulfstream in the N. Atlantic would be global warming causing unpresedented melting of icecaps releasing unimaginable amounts of "fresh water" into the atlantic diluting the Salty current. We cant say that wont happen, because it could.. in a 100+ yrs time

There are lots of articles on the internet including this one on the bbc that refer to it as the Gulfstream http://www.bbc.co.uk...f_stream.shtml. What they really mean (and what most research based articles call it) is the NE Atlantic section of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) which is actually called the North Atlantic Drift or as researchers call it... Atlantic Meridonal Overturning Circulation.

If that stopped it would drop NW europe temperatures mainly during winter months by 2-5c and this wouldn't happen overnight. Nope, it would likely take up to two decades. And even then, researchers, going off global model forcasts are confident that global warming will actually offset some of the effects of the cooling.

But yes, in 10 to 20 years of the NAD stopping, you would likely see a few more winters akin to the eastern stats of US (New York etc in terms of severity temp/snow) and sometimes even as cold and Canada)... but not exactly an iceage.

good.gif

I remember watching a documentary on that a fair few years ago! But that was at a time when temperatures were still rising dramatically, which they no longer are!

I now believe that we will definitely see colder weather in the coming years; not down to the Gulf Stream altering, but down to solar activity.

Also Downburst, I can find you evidence of breaks in the conveyor loops inside the Stream, but as far as I know it's still running quite well further below the surface. The surface current has dived dramatically in the past 2 years though, I will try find some evidence.

The atmospheric movements provide the warmth to NW Europe in Winter, not the Gulf Stream.

What you said is both right and wrong. Yes atmospheric movements provide NW Europe with warmth, but where does that warmth come from? Yes, the Gulf Stream, or more specifically the North Atlantic Drift!

Also my house has fog for about 10 months of the year anyway but I think that's just down to elevation :p

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Posted
  • Location: Dunstable, Bedfordshire
  • Location: Dunstable, Bedfordshire

....I cant wait to hear this years tales of why this winter will be the coldest in history!

because of the weather!!!

Sorry couldn't resist it rofl.gif - I'll get my coat!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

I think it's fairly straightforward really.. our climate is dictated by an oceanic influence, and regardless of the Gulf Stream we would still see that Oceanic influence - although perhaps lose a few degrees, but not many.

The west to east movement of everything in the Northern Hemisphere guarantees us a mild climate (outside of ice age conditions)

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