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Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze)


pottyprof

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Things over the next week are looking quite mixed for the refreeze. On one hand, we have rapidly cooling uppers which look much better than the last 2 years and close to 2008.

post-6901-0-71947600-1317806392_thumb.gi

On the other hand, we have a very strong dipole developing which may slow the gains from the very cool air.

post-6901-0-06139500-1317806533_thumb.gi

post-6901-0-18951600-1317806552_thumb.gi

Will be interesting to see what happens. Without the dipole driving ice out through Fram, I say we could be looking at consistent ~100k gains, but with the dipole in place, maybe something closer to average is to be expected, or perhaps even below. I guess we'll have to wait see

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I think we must remember the 'heat content' of the ocean BFTV?

No matter (in past years) what the 2m temps are forecast to be the ocean below them needs to be low enough to freeze or we end up with temps reflecting that 'heat loss' and not the forecast (with a 'Faux H.P.' plumped up by this rising heat?)?

Is the GFS up on Arctic Amplification I wonder?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The SSTs around the ice are still close to 0C so, with surface temps well below 0C across across the vast majority of the Arctic Ocean, it would only take a few days of cooling to get them down to the -2/3C required I would think?

Pity that IJIS isn't updating, is that just a problem on my side?

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

The SSTs around the ice are still close to 0C so, with surface temps well below 0C across across the vast majority of the Arctic Ocean, it would only take a few days of cooling to get them down to the -2/3C required I would think?

Pity that IJIS isn't updating, is that just a problem on my side?

Nope, it hasn't been updating since the re-freeze begun.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Nope, it hasn't been updating since the re-freeze begun.

Cryosphere Today hasn't been either. Perhaps they use the same satellite it's experiencing some glitches at the moment?

Actually, just spotted the notice above the graph "Sea-ice data update stops for a while due to the suspension of AMSR-E observation"

Hopefully this doesn't last much longer.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

We've had a couple of 'solar storms' (now the suns awake) so the sats may be on some 'downtime' for protection?

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Cryosphere Today hasn't been either. Perhaps they use the same satellite it's experiencing some glitches at the moment?

Actually, just spotted the notice above the graph "Sea-ice data update stops for a while due to the suspension of AMSR-E observation"

Hopefully this doesn't last much longer.

Hopefully back up & working soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Just found this http://nsidc.org/data/amsre/news.html

Seems there's a problem with the satellite

the AMSR-E instrument on board the Aqua satellite stopped producing data due to a problem with the rotation of its antenna.
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Thanks for that BFTV. Hope it's a fixable issue?

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Nope, AMSR-E is out for the count. It was on borrowed time anyway, apparently 3+ years beyond its designed 6-year lifespan. The replacement, AMSR2, is due for launch in early 2012. Until then the only source of information will be the SSM/I satellite used by NSIDC and Norsex. This has lower resolution, but is probably better for year-on-year comparison anyway since they have an unbroken record going back to 1979 with the same type of sensor.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

They seem to be working on the issue, so perhaps they can salvage another few months from it?

Anywho, with the Dipole Index I'm working on, September has come in at -8. That makes it the lowest September since 1992, 4th lowest since 1979 and the lowest "melt season" (Apr-Sept) month since April 2006.

This melt season overall has finished on +22, which is very close to average (+20), and well below 2007 (+66)

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They've been working around it for months. It's not something that can be fixed: the lubrication in the spinning bearings has just finally succumbed to the vacuum of space and evaporated. The instrument was shut down to stop it sending the whole satellite into an unrecoverable spin.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/10/amsr-e-ends-9-years-of-global-observations/

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

They've been working around it for months. It's not something that can be fixed: the lubrication in the spinning bearings has just finally succumbed to the vacuum of space and evaporated. The instrument was shut down to stop it sending the whole satellite into an unrecoverable spin.

http://www.drroyspen...l-observations/

Is there going to be any link to anything this winter. ?

Its a pity if we have to wait to 2012

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

A helping hand for those 'cyclical' guys out there;

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/10/111006084040.htm

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Is there going to be any link to anything this winter. ?

Its a pity if we have to wait to 2012

NSIDC will keep reporting using the SSM/I instrument . Monthly updates (usually) at http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Bremen are (I believe) transitioning to using SSM/I too - may make their graphs go a bit odd due to splicing data from different instruments, we'll have to see.

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
A helping hand for those 'cyclical' guys out there; ]

Ah.. At last !!! They found a technical way of saying our models are crap....

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

A helping hand for those 'cyclical' guys out there;

http://www.scienceda...11006084040.htm

It was a ice free summer by 2013 then 2030 then 2050 now 2099 (all quoted in the last 4 years)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm

http://www.theage.co...80919-4k8u.html

http://en.rian.ru/sc.../159884899.html

And now they announce 4 times faster then they thought before but at least another 87 years longer then they first thought

How can one be cynical nea.gif

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

It's like weather forecasts Stew, they're always more accurate as a 'hindcast'.........

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

It was a ice free summer by 2013 then 2030 then 2050 now 2099 (all quoted in the last 4 years)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm

http://www.theage.co...80919-4k8u.html

http://en.rian.ru/sc.../159884899.html

And now they announce 4 times faster then they thought before but at least another 87 years longer then they first thought

How can one be cynical nea.gif

4 different opinions from a handful of scientists in 4 different years. There are 10s if not 100s of thousands of scientists in something related to this field with different opinions on both sides of the debate. With that, understanding of the dynamics of climate science and Arctic ice are continually evolving. I see no reason for cynicism. Ideas are being refined and (hopefully) improved.

Personally, I'd be more concerned if everything was static.

Even our knowledgeof the processes involved in evolution and epigenetics are still changing, doesn't mean we should be cynical of whether or not evolution is true!

I think everyone should take the individual predictions with a pinch of salt. We don't know everything there is to know and so there will always be surprises

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Hi BFTV!

Wait and see the opinions once we have our first 'seasonal' pack? I'm sure there'll be plenty of 'so whats' out there?

As for the current situation. Well with the NEtWTV winter forecast update coming out tomorrow I'm wondering if the models now include the 'Arctic Amplification' as a driver in the mix???

Another early Arctic blast (followed by a middling Jan/Feb/March) and I'm properly sold on the changes loss of ice cover is bringing to the N. Hemisphere.

You watch for the 'developed worlds' renewed interest in the Arctic Amplification should the shaky economies be hit by early winter ( chrimbo shopping etc.) freeze up?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

NSIDC said this in their update;

"Ice remains younger, thinner

Why did ice extent fall to a near record low without the sort of extreme weather conditions seen in 2007? One explanation is that the ice cover is thinner than it used to be; the melt season starts with more first-year ice (ice that formed the previous autumn and winter) and less of the generally thicker multi-year ice (ice that has survived at least one summer season). First- and second-year ice made up 80% of the ice cover in the Arctic Basin in March 2011, compared to 55% on average from 1980 to 2000. Over the past few summers, more first-year ice has survived than in 2007, replenishing the younger multi-year ice categories (2- to 3-year-old ice). This multi-year ice appears to have played a key role in preserving the tongue of ice extending from near the North Pole toward the East Siberian Sea. However, the oldest, thickest ice (five or more years old) has continued to decline, particularly in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Continued loss of the oldest, thickest ice has prevented any significant recovery of the summer minimum extent. In essence, what was once a refuge for older ice has become a graveyard"

(My bold)

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

NSIDC said this in their update;

"Ice remains younger, thinner

Why did ice extent fall to a near record low without the sort of extreme weather conditions seen in 2007? One explanation is that the ice cover is thinner than it used to be; the melt season starts with more first-year ice (ice that formed the previous autumn and winter) and less of the generally thicker multi-year ice (ice that has survived at least one summer season). First- and second-year ice made up 80% of the ice cover in the Arctic Basin in March 2011, compared to 55% on average from 1980 to 2000. Over the past few summers, more first-year ice has survived than in 2007, replenishing the younger multi-year ice categories (2- to 3-year-old ice). This multi-year ice appears to have played a key role in preserving the tongue of ice extending from near the North Pole toward the East Siberian Sea. However, the oldest, thickest ice (five or more years old) has continued to decline, particularly in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Continued loss of the oldest, thickest ice has prevented any significant recovery of the summer minimum extent. In essence, what was once a refuge for older ice has become a graveyard"

(My bold)

What are we to do without Daily updates ? I have managed to get a Daily Express forcast but who knows ??

http://en.wikipedia....icesheet_hg.png

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

If we look back over the past two years I've been highlighting how the changes in ice type have lead to a 'switch' in the workings of the Arctic.

In the 'Old Arctic' the 'average' circulation pushed ice up against Greenland ,Canadian Archipelago and South Beaufort sea where it squeezed itself over the ice there or ridged up to form the fantastic office block sized ice that was the Paleocrystic ice (and pushed deep keels down into the ocean too!).

Today , as I'd noted over these past two years, those same areas just feed ice into Nares and Fram or float it into the ocean in front of the Bering straights (where it is melted out).

The old 'nursery' of the Paleocrystic ice is now nothing more than it's 'mortuary'.

Can anyone show me how this is a 'natural cycle' that we have seen many times before?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Near Cranbrook, Kent
  • Location: Near Cranbrook, Kent

The logical response to your question is

"No, I can't show you, because there is no evidence available.

How you are so certain that it isn't a natural cycle that has been seen many times before?"

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

If we look back over the past two years I've been highlighting how the changes in ice type have lead to a 'switch' in the workings of the Arctic.

In the 'Old Arctic' the 'average' circulation pushed ice up against Greenland ,Canadian Archipelago and South Beaufort sea where it squeezed itself over the ice there or ridged up to form the fantastic office block sized ice that was the Paleocrystic ice (and pushed deep keels down into the ocean too!).

Today , as I'd noted over these past two years, those same areas just feed ice into Nares and Fram or float it into the ocean in front of the Bering straights (where it is melted out).

The old 'nursery' of the Paleocrystic ice is now nothing more than it's 'mortuary'.

Can anyone show me how this is a 'natural cycle' that we have seen many times before?

I'd hazard a guess that the latest research concerning the Sun and changing weather patterns in the NH winter would be playing a large role.

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