Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze)

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'd hazard a guess that the latest research concerning the Sun and changing weather patterns in the NH winter would be playing a large role.

So with the recent prolonged solar minimum and low UV levels will you be expecting a recovery in the sea ice sometime soon?

[jethro]

So with the recent prolonged solar minimum and low UV levels will you be expecting a recovery in the sea ice sometime soon?

Not if it's the cause behind ice being flushed out into the ocean.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Not if it's the cause behind ice being flushed out into the ocean.

I thought that was happening well before the solar min? Or maybe I'm missing something here!?

[jethro]

I thought that was happening well before the solar min? Or maybe I'm missing something here!?

I was offering an answer to GW's question about the last 2-3 years and the difference in the circulation pattern. The latest research shows the quiet Sun impacts the atmospheric patterns during the winter months in the NH which in turn is linked to the colder winters we have had here over the same time period. I imagine you cannot have the impact of the quiet Sun being felt here, without also impacting the Arctic.

I don't think the Sun was linked to circulation changes prior to the Solar min, was it?

[BornFromTheVoid]

I was offering an answer to GW's question about the last 2-3 years and the difference in the circulation pattern. The latest research shows the quiet Sun impacts the atmospheric patterns during the winter months in the NH which in turn is linked to the colder winters we have had here over the same time period. I imagine you cannot have the impact of the quiet Sun being felt here, without also impacting the Arctic.

I don't think the Sun was linked to circulation changes prior to the Solar min, was it?

Is it a circulation change that's allowing the ice to flow out of the Arctic more easily or maybe it's just because the ice is less consolidated and gets caught in currents/blown along by wind patterns more easily... or both?

I don't know of any definite link between the Sun and changes in Arctic circulation, but I think it would be unwise to completely discount any possible links.

[VillagePlank]

I don't know of any definite link between the Sun and changes in Arctic circulation.

Well, I'd hazard a guess that maybe, just maybe, there might be a very slight hint - slight, mind you - that, since >99% of all the world's energy is derived from that marvellous free light bulb in the sky, that it might, just might, mind, have something to do with the weather. I'm not sure on this, and, really, it's just a sort of guess; unfortunately, I do not have the means to run £multi-billion computer models, and I certainly don't have higher end degrees in any of the sciences so such a rumination should be considered on it's own merits.

Maybe you should just consider this as my own personal inclination.

NEWS-FLASH: There is ice in the Arctic.

Edited October 17, 2011 by Sparticle

[Gray-Wolf]

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

Anyone know why we have a 'stall' in growth going on? Are we 'exporting' a.t.m.?

[loafer]

Likely to be the effect of the recent warm spell which came through the UK and onwards to the north east.

The latest temperature chart, here;

http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/synNNWWarctis.gif

...shows the northern Norwegian coast to be particularly warm, given the time of year.

Also seen here;

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=scan&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=tmp2&HH=3&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

Look forward to next weekend and the GFS shows a significant chill down;

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=scan&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=tmp2&HH=120&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

[BornFromTheVoid]

Well, I'd hazard a guess that maybe, just maybe, there might be a... free light bulb in the sky... I'm not sure on this, and, really, it's just a sort of guess; unfortunately, I do not have the means to run.., and I certainly don't have... any of the sciences so such... should be considered on it's own merits.

Maybe you should just consider this as my own personal inclination.

FLASH... the Arctic.

Where'd we be without selective quoting eh?

Anywho, of course the sun has a huge affect on our tiny planet. Sure without it the Earth wouldn't have even formed. While it's blatantly obvious that the sun is the biggest driver for almost all of Earths processes, with the numerous feedbacks, crossovers and ridiculous range of climate affecting cycles all around us, it is difficult to determine exactly how changes or lack thereof in sun are influencing Arctic circulation patterns and in what way they're doing that.

[Gray-Wolf]

However we got here , BFTV, we are here.

Some of the land fast ice areas (deep grounded ice) and features like the 'ice tongue' (from Greenland out towards Svalbard) are now history only and I fail to see , without as many years as it took them to disappear, how we majik them back? Without them ( as NSIDC says) even the old nursery of the Paleocrystic ice has turned into it's mortuary.

My 'pet' whine about the halocline also comes in here. It was (or so I have come to believe) a relic of the last ice age (and the depth of ice above it then) but it also played it's role in keeping the old 'deep ice' that kept the Arctic as we knew it. Every 'wave' that rolls across the basin is mixing this unique feature out. Catlin tells us that the ice melt is also 'mixing out 'this layer with cold melt water sinking and warmer ,more saline waters bobbing up to the surface.

We should not kid ourselves that the Arctic is as simple as 'cold'. It had many systems that helped keep it as was.

I have to sigh when the odd post pops up promising a bit of cold ,arctic weather up there as though this is a positive.

Come summer we will see ice drop to the 'new' level for ice min(as we have since 07's shocker!) and this new level will slowly reduce (over time) until the pack is fully seasonal.

That is. of course, if we forget the 'perfect storm' years and it is the next one of these that will bring the 'first' seasonal pack though this would surely 'rebound' for a few years after ?(as we saw the post 07' years do) until , once again the rate of decline drops us into 'seasonal pack' territory.

The Arctic is broken , well Broken, and it'll take more than a couple of cold summers to fix it.

(the above is ,of course , my opinion and 'take' on things)

[jethro]

So cold Arctic weather would be a negative thing????

[loafer]

Anyone know why we have a 'stall' in growth going on? Are we 'exporting' a.t.m.?

I have to sigh when the odd post pops up promising a bit of cold ,arctic weather up there as though this is a positive.

You asked whether anyone knew why there was a short term fall off in ice growth, I proposed a possible reason, and suggested it was temporary and yet you "have to sigh"...why?

[4wd]

The Arctic is broken , well Broken, and it'll take more than a couple of cold summers to fix it.

(the above is ,of course , my opinion and 'take' on things)

This conjures up Serreze tipping points, a concept recently largely discounted by mainstream studies.

(it also flies in the face of commonsense since we know there have been similar low ice episodes many times before)

[BornFromTheVoid]

Likely to be the effect of the recent warm spell which came through the UK and onwards to the north east.

The latest temperature chart, here;

http://www.uni-koeln...nNNWWarctis.gif

...shows the northern Norwegian coast to be particularly warm, given the time of year.

Also seen here;

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

Look forward to next weekend and the GFS shows a significant chill down;

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

I doubt that's it. The largest positive temperature anomalies have been near the Bering strait and off the coast of central Eurasia.

This is most likely down to the strong dipole type pattern present over the Arctic the last week. This would feed southerly winds into the areas where the anomalies are present, as well as flushing ice out through the Fram Strait.

[loafer]

Thanks, BFTV.

What is the forecast - similarly warm, or cooling down?

[BornFromTheVoid]

At the moment, the dipole pattern is still in place and unfortunately it only changes slight in the short to medium term.

At t6 we can still see the clear divide between the high pressure across the Canadian Archipelago and N. Greenland with low pressure on the opposite side

By t48 there is a slight change with high pressure attempting to spread across the Arctic to give a more general -AO pattern

This isn't fully achieved until t168 though.

The result of this overall pattern is the locking of the main cold over N.Greenland and the CA, so we should see the NW passage freeze over very soon. The negative sea ice anomalies on the Laptev and East Siberian seas being reinforced by the poor synoptics and relatively high uppers and surface temps. The warming from the southerly winds coming off central Russia should lessen as the continent cools and the large positive anomalies should also be reduced as the ocean loses it's warmth to the atmosphere and freezes over.

Overall, I'd say the slower than normal growth may continue for another few days. Though at this time of year, you need something exceptional really slow the growth to less and 20,000 or 30,000km2 per day. Unfortunately we don't have the figures to see if we're getting close to that.

[loafer]

Thanks again.

A very interesting analysis...time will tell, as always!

[Gray-Wolf]

Jethro, Cold in the Arctic is just 'cold'?, loafer, I 'sigh' because of my personal opinion/take on how bad things are in the Arctic (as my post at the bottom of page 3 spells out?)

Thanks BFTV for your 'keeping an eye on things' .I could only think that the 'stall' was a 'flush out event' as it's now pretty cold up there and the only time I see that type of 'flatline', this time of year, Fram has something to do with it (or the loss of Bering Ice due to southerlies?).

I believe that the ice loss over summer does impact the late Autumn/early winter weather in line with what the folk who measure the 'Arctic Amplification' say it will. We have seen 7 winters now where this effect has been building as ice levels have been falling so why not again this year? I'm sure that we'll see anomalous high pressures again over the early winter as the sea sheds it's heat and plumps up a nice H.P. whilst dumping arctic air directly into the lower latitudes ( and W.A.A. replacing it in the basin). We have been in the firing line for these 'Arctic blasts for three years now ( and , yes 1 year may have been aided and abetted by the solar min stretching the cold out beyond Dec for us due to a blocked Atlantic) but that does not mean it will always be us that cops for it. Central Europe could do this year and we could receive what Canada's western side had last year (meaning night time 'max temp' records could be up for grabs this late autumn/early winter).

All in all I'd say we have arrived at a point where we have lost the 'Old Arctic' and things work differently up there now. We risk losing whatever older ice we saved in the basin this year should the Dipole persist ( and flush it all through Fram), we all saw Pole cam 2 exit the basin last winter after being deployed at the pole the April before so we know that the stretch of ice from pole to Fram is at risk of leaving the basin if we have similar synoptics to last early winter.

It took up to 100yrs to bring the Arctic to this point, we have sub data for 50 of those years so know how the losses picked up in the 70's and 80's, do we really think it'll mend itself in less time than that? even if it took 1/4 of that time that would be wishing for 25yrs of blighted summers ( it's the summers that are the issue are they not or have the winters also 'milded out' as much?) and I'm the dour faced catastrophist?

Edited October 17, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[jethro]

Jethro, Cold in the Arctic is just 'cold'?, loafer, I 'sigh' because of my personal opinion/take on how bad things are in the Arctic (as my post at the bottom of page 3 spells out?)

So it's bad when it's warm in the Arctic and being cold in the Arctic is a waste of time?

There's just no pleasing some folk.

[Gray-Wolf]

So it's bad when it's warm in the Arctic and being cold in the Arctic is a waste of time?

There's just no pleasing some folk.

Aye! that's the Rub!

I'll repeat it again. "The Arctic is Broken". So much so it is hard to imagine how things now work ( for me at least) but ,as ever, you need define the 'problem' before you can search for an answer and I appear to come across many folk who still deny there is a problem. How far then are we from a solution?

[4wd]

[BornFromTheVoid]

Well it seems this slow down in sea ice growth in continuing for the time being. Most sea ice graphs (not using the AMSR-E data) now have us approaching 2007. The graphs can be seen here http://wattsupwithth...s/sea-ice-page/

The figures we can get though from Cryosphere Today show the anomaly now at 2,182,000km2, larger than at any point during the melt season and second only to 2007.

The forecast shows the dipole pattern easing with a more general -AO pattern taking hold and the cold uppers and surface temperatures beginning to spread towards the Russian coast.

The high pressure then links up with another over Scandinavia and pulls mild southerlies into the central Arctic from the Med, reducing the surface temperatures and probably keeping the sea ice gain relatively low.

[scotty_boy_winter]

There has never been a period in earths history that warming and melting has happened so quick. If you are going to quote, then quote actual facts not sensationalistic, political like statements.

Are you on a wind up or do you just have no understanding of the arctic?

This conjures up Serreze tipping points, a concept recently largely discounted by mainstream studies.

(it also flies in the face of commonsense since we know there have been similar low ice episodes many times before)

[4wd]

There has never been a period in earths history that warming and melting has happened so quick. If you are going to quote, then quote actual facts not sensationalistic, political like statements.

Isn't your view a sensationalist political like statement?

It's certainly not backed up by observations, because we don't have accurate observations even before the 1950s.

There's little doubt the ice has receeded considerably more as recently as the Medieval warm period, and the 1940s saw dramatic reductions in a short period.

[scotty_boy_winter]

I've core data back up my view as well as old transcripts. So my view is a proven, scientific one. I find it a little strange and almost dillusional the fact you are trying to disprove an already proven fact. It's like trying to tell people gravity doesn't exist and no matter how many times people tell you it's a proven fact you still feel obliged to argue the toss..

Isn't your view a sensationalist political like statement?

It's certainly not backed up by observations, because we don't have accurate observations even before the 1950s.

There's little doubt the ice has receeded considerably more as recently as the Medieval warm period, and the 1940s saw dramatic reductions in a short period.