Long Range Forecast Update

[Paul]

Our regular long range forecast has been updated to cover the remainder of Autumn and into Winter, current expectations are for some colder weather to develop, particularly during November:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

[Isolated Frost]

Going along with the general theme of cooler, drier weather to begin in October and continue throughout the Autumn.

Active Atlantic will take a bit too break down, the ENSO situation can do little, and the NAO relies on the Atlantic, not the other way round. I'm going for an active Atlantic with small ridges and HP systems every now and then, until ridging and a blocked Atlantic move into the reliable timeframe, but it's definitely a feasible and interesting view that NW holds, and is basically quite similar to 10/11's theme, cold and dry. Good stuff

[Gavin P]

Sounds an fairly exciting end to the year.

[damianslaw]

Interesting outlook from Net Weather suggesting a fairly quiet atlantic during October and November. The last settled Oct and Nov combo was in 2005 and could suggest a signal for long term blocking to take hold with negative NAO/AO but we shall see. On a personal note, I really don't want to see a severe spell occuring in Nov like last year, far too early and I always remain cautious when we see very cold weather so early in the season, doesn't often bode well for sustained cold through the winter (exceptions to this 1978, 1985). Much rather such weather started in mid december like 2009.

[La Bise]

Dry and cold is perfect for me, in fact the entire forecast so far sounds right up my street with a bit more ppn for the latter part of the lrf. The last thing we'd need is yet another monsoon november...

[The PIT]

Interesting ECM and GFS hint at a Indian summer for the start of October while the CFS doesn't.

Anyway I now know where this mornings media of freezing winter come from.

However we could do with some rain. This month looks like once again coming in below average continuing the dry year.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Cold and dry.........much better than mild and wet!

[Backtrack]

Cold and dry, meaning plenty of frosts, especially with Northern blocking keeping pesky Atlantic systems away from us.

That will certainly do me, just as long as I get my fair share of snow. :lol:

[Milhouse]

I would quite like a cold and dry winter but that can only compond problems if we get another dry Spring like last year. Ideally we need to be entering Spring next year with all the reservoirs topped up to reasonable levels ready for the warmer weather. A wet winter might make for quite dismal viewing but no one can argue that it would certainly help to alleviate possible drought conditions next year.

[snowlover2009]

Interesting ECM and GFS hint at a Indian summer for the start of October while the CFS doesn't.

Anyway I now know where this mornings media of freezing winter come from.

However we could do with some rain. This month looks like once again coming in below average continuing the dry year.

That is technically not true. They are predicting a warm spell for the time of year in the last week of this month, then ecm has a scandi high developed towards the end of September and start of October later in the run, which would eventually bring cooler and dry weather, when the warm uppers move away. So it is line with the cfs and net weather, the gfs I think is trying to do it, but failing. It has rarely shown a few cool spells in FI this recent week.

[Schnee]

I'll take cold and dry as long as there's no dramas this year....

Last year my van decided to self destruct it's starter which resulted in me being stuck till 1.30am in Sheffield, not getting home till 3am after it was tow started and me driving through a snow locked Sheffield (which I honestly loved) and not getting stuck at all mind you. I had my old employers asking me to work the following day (10h driving job and I would've been in Hull), despite not sleeping at all. Luckily Leeds was hit by the snow and I was stranded in the dealers all day, before walking home to find the hire car had been sitting there all day......

I since have a new job.......