Defunct Satellite Will Fall To Earth This Week

[toggerob]

There is one last window of opportunity tonight, assuming it hasn't come down by then.

23:33:15 - 23:35:33 (WNW-NE) 0.9

oddly enough the heavens above page has the next pass at 02:31:35 at a magnitude of -4.6, error in calculation? or predicting that UARs would have already gone to ground since the 23:33 pass.

[Coast]

We might get half a chance to find out if it's going to impact the UK now:

RAF Fylingdales, which is high on the North York Moors, near Whitby, is using its giant radar to track the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). The Fylingdales base forms part of a worldwide network of powerful radars and tracks all objects in orbit bigger than 10cm. The station was originally built at the height of the Cold War to track any incoming ballistic missile attack - a role it still performs.

An RAF spokeswoman said: "The Space Operations Room at Royal Air Force Fylingdales is manned 24 hours a day by specialist Royal Air Force and civilian personnel, and its operators will be working to track the UARS object as it returns to the atmosphere. "The Solid State Phased Array Radar is being tasked by the United States Air Force and the Royal Air Force to concentrate its radar energy towards the object in order to track its final orbit." "This information will then be used by various different agencies to predict the path of re-entry into the Earth's atmosphere."

The old Nasa research satellite is expected to come crashing down through the atmosphere on Friday evening, UK time. On Thursday, the Aerospace Corporation in California predicted that re-entry will occur over the Pacific Ocean. The 20-year-old Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite will be the biggest Nasa spacecraft to fall uncontrolled from the sky in 32 years

http://www.google.co...31316767493151A

[Jane Louise]

UARS RE-ENTRY UPDATE: NASA's UARS satellite is making its last orbits around Earth. Orbital elements just published by US Strategic Command suggest that re-entry could occur a little later than previously expected. "For now, it looks like 00:00 - 04:00 UTC on Sept. 24," says satellite tracking expert Ted Molczan, "but it could well happen even later. UARS will pass over North America and Europe several times during this period, but it will spend most of its time over oceans and sparsely populated land." Stay tuned for updates and meanwhile keep an eye out for the doomed satellite. [latest NASA statement]

http://www.spaceweather.com/

6 Biggest Spacecraft to Fall Uncontrolled From Space:

http://www.space.com/13049-6-biggest-spacecraft-falls-space.html

[Crepuscular Ray]

From NASA:

As of 10:30 a.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 100 miles by 105 miles (160 km by 170 km). Re-entry is expected late Friday, Sept. 23, or early Saturday, Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time. Solar activity is no longer the major factor in the satellite’s rate of descent. The satellite’s orientation or configuration apparently has changed, and that is now slowing its descent. There is a low probability any debris that survives re-entry will land in the United States, but the possibility cannot be discounted because of this changing rate of descent. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 12 to 18 hours.

[A Winter's Tale]

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/indiainspace

Trying to find out what its current altitude is and I'm a tad worried about it landing over this part of the world. Hopefully it will happen sooner rather than some mad time like 4am.

[A Winter's Tale]

http://www.ustream.t...el/indiainspace

Trying to find out what its current altitude is and I'm a tad worried about it landing over this part of the world. Hopefully it will happen sooner rather than at some mad time like 4am.

[Jane Louise]

Thanks for the link AWT , I'm following it now for a couple hours.Hope it dosen't fall at 4am ....

[A Winter's Tale]

When do you think we will get the first indications that it's entering the atmosphere. Then after that when how long would it take for it too reach the earth.

I know it's highly unlikely for an object the size of a fridge to hit one particular house in a particular part of the world, however there is a remote possibility of it happening.

Hopefully, the angle of its landing will mean that it will hit a tree or something before it reaches any home. However, it could be pointless as it's likely not to fall in the UK.

[lorenzo]

It is still way up in the atmosphere - UK pass timed for later than predicted.

http://www.heavens-above.com/orbit.aspx?satid=21701&lat=0&lng=0&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=CET

[A Winter's Tale]

How long after it starts to drop closer to the earth will UARS crash to earth as I would like to predict which time would be suitable for it to start falling and for us to sleep safe tonight.

[Marv]

Stellarium shows a pass at about 22:03 tonight, from SW to E, very low at about 15 degrees above the horizon. The later ones at 23:30 and 1:05 are from West to East and show a maximum of about 70 degrees above the northern horizon, between the big dipper and Polaris..

[Interitus]

Typically cloudy here in northwest England, pah!

[SP1986]

its clear here but Im not seeing much. perhaps the 23:30 sighting will be better

[A Winter's Tale]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eo_fSuoeu9I

[Crepuscular Ray]

A bit premature, aren't you? It's still up there (as of 23.14) and that was recorded when it was still daylight in Italy.

Edited September 23, 2011 by crepuscular ray

[A Winter's Tale]

A bit premature, aren't you? It's still up there (as of 23.14) and that was recorded when it was still daylight in Italy.

I just posted the video for interest. As far as I'm concerned the thing is still intact at a high altitude. I'll be going outside in a while to see the remote possibilty of it passing over.

[Crepuscular Ray]

So what was the video of, given that it's not of UARS? Just for interest?

Edited September 23, 2011 by crepuscular ray

[A Winter's Tale]

So what was the video of, given that it's not of UARS? Just for interest?

I thought it would liven things up a wee bit.

[Lincs Observation]

hi all

Just been out and im sure it just passed over, what i saw was a series of flashes at high altitude in what i can only explain as long flashes lasting 30-40 seconds directly above my position, the sky is relatively clear with some very high light cloud.

It was the weirdest thing ive ever seen

[Aaron]

So where is this satellite now? The site I was using before has an overloaded server and has crashed..!

[A Winter's Tale]

hi all

Just been out and im sure it just passed over, what i saw was a series of flashes at high altitude in what i can only explain as long flashes lasting 30-40 seconds directly above my position, the sky is relatively clear with some very high light cloud.

It was the weirdest thing ive ever seen

I thought I saw some flashes in the sky myself and I just thought it was my eyes playing tricks.

[Aaron]

hi all

Just been out and im sure it just passed over, what i saw was a series of flashes at high altitude in what i can only explain as long flashes lasting 30-40 seconds directly above my position, the sky is relatively clear with some very high light cloud.

It was the weirdest thing ive ever seen

Wow.. nice.. that should mean you're safe from falling debris since it isn't coming directly at you.

[Lincs Observation]

yes like long flashes is what they were (long trails of white light)

[toggerob]

If it was to the Northeast going Northwest then that would be it. couldn't see it visually here due to cloud, but good to know visual obs has now confirmed it's still up there. The pass was between 23:33UT and 23:36UT.

[Crepuscular Ray]

Entirely probable for both of you, especially if you were looking north Lincs Observation and between north and overhead Winter's Tale. The flashes will be as different bits of it catch the sunlight as it tumbles.