Defunct Satellite Will Fall To Earth This Week

[A Winter's Tale]

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/theweatherspace-news

[Lincs Observation]

If it was to the Northeast going Northwest then that would be it. couldn't see it visually here due to cloud, but good to know visual obs has now confirmed it's still up there. The pass was between 23:33UT and 23:36UT.

yep was pretty much bang on then, like i say was a very weird 30-40 seconds and a lot of long flashes so im wondering now if it is beginning to break up

from my location it came from the SE moving NW looking at my google earth and where my house in in relation to N

Edited September 23, 2011 by Lincs Observation

[Aaron]

There will only be an estimated 26 pieces.. so let's wait and see if any more debris is visible.

[A Winter's Tale]

What damage could the debris do?

If that was debris, it must have been quite small. It will be more interesting the next time it comes round and I think we will have a clearer picture.

Edited September 23, 2011 by A Winter's Tale

[Aaron]

Depends on the size I guess? That lady in Oklahoma got hit by space debris and did not get injured at all, but it only weighed the same as a crushed pop can..

[AderynCoch]

Intriguing observations! Looks like the endgame has begun.

Saw bugger all from my viewpoint, despite good clear breaks in the relevant part of the sky.

[Lincs Observation]

will this make another pass over the uk, if so does anyone know where in the sky and what direction?

currently its on its way to Australia which is incredible as we saw it only 27 mins ago.

[Aaron]

If it's beginning to break up it may not. But it's descending at a slower rate than before so you never know.

[A Winter's Tale]

will this make another pass over the uk, if so does anyone know where in the sky and what direction?

currently its on its way to Australia which is incredible as we saw it only 27 mins ago.

After 1am it should pass over the Northern Half of Scotland.

[Lincs Observation]

After 1am it should pass over the Northern Half of Scotland.

Thats a shame because i think that was it for us further south, well at least i can say i saw it as did the family what a fantastic sight

[toggerob]

The tumbling motion isn't debris but rather the intact satellite reflecting the suns rays from its panels via every 'tumble' it takes. When it starts to encounter friction this tumbling motion will smooth out, as it becomes effectively a 7km/per hour projectile. Until heat & stress will subsequently break the vehicle into its categorised pieces (i'm assuming they know such a number going off weak points such as weldings, or projected simulation tests.) but either way just like with the MIR re-entry it won't be too hard to miss these pieces as they scatter ahead of the heavier components.

[ZONE 51]

Am i able to spot this on the southern view point, se-sw? thats my only view from where i am as i might dip the lights and sky watch from window around the time its likely to pass? time?

[Crepuscular Ray]

Am i able to spot this on the southern view point, se-sw? thats my only view from where i am as i might dip the lights and sky watch from window around the time its likely to pass? time?

Unlikely, according to predictions the next pass is too far north. However, given that it's slowing down, keep an eye on Heavens Above's home page as that has a near real-time graphic of its projected path (where it shows the actual position may be slightly delayed so if the satellite looks like it's heading your way but they show it a few hundred miles away, head outside for a look).

Edited September 23, 2011 by crepuscular ray

[Flash Elvis]

My Guess .....Idian Ocean

[A Winter's Tale]

The altitude isn't going down!!!!!!

This is going to be one long night.

If this thing does fall I would be interested in:

- UARS to hit the Big Brother Building

- To harm the Queen which would lead to tensions between the UK and US plus complaints about NASA

- To damage the home of important Russian Politicians.

[Aaron]

The altitude isn't going down!!!!!!

This is going to be one long night.

If this thing does fall I would be interested in:

- UARS to hit the Big Brother Building

- To harm the Queen which would lead to tensions between the UK and US plus complaints about NASA

- To damage the home of important Russian Politicians.

[toggerob]

Its orbit is elliptical (had my hands burnt for saying ecliptic on another forum), but its lower in altitude over South America and the Atlantic because of this. Gaining altitude in retrograde over Asia and the Pacific. This gradual 'bleeding off' of its energy has led to a 2 mile gradual descent since around 10pm, the descent on every pass over South America continually getting lower.

[ZONE 51]

World map here - ive not put my predictions on yet so you can copy the blank if you want to do your own on it , il upload a copy of it with my hits on in a bit!

guess where the bits are to hit..

mark one or many up to you!

[A Winter's Tale]

I think UARS is starting to drop altitude. Just in time to attack the UK

Edited September 23, 2011 by A Winter's Tale

[Aaron]

Well.. if it hits the UK.. at least it should be in northern Scotland where hardly anyone lives.

[toggerob]

150.26km that pass dropped to. Climbing back up again on the elliptic, but 93miles is still nothing to sneer about. Could be some components breaking off from preliminary stress factors currently, so heading on out to see what I can see.

[A Winter's Tale]

I think it has dropped nearly 40km in Altitude recently. Come on UARS don't land over here!!!

[ZONE 51]

http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/09/21/7884120-how-to-watch-a-falling-satellite

[Aaron]

Uh oh, here it comes.. and it appears to go right over the central belt of Scotland.. one of the most densely populated areas of the UK!

[ZONE 51]

here it comes..

that was quick! just seen above image!