Sept into Oct 2011 Warm Spell Discussion..

[Isolated Frost]

18C and a UV index of 3. Cloudy intervals, but the sun is showing an increasing presence, and feels really warm in the sun. 2nd warmest day of the month - 21.5C on the 10th was the warmest so far - I'd imagine we'll get 3-4 days warmer than that (27th ?, 28th, 29th and 30th).

[damianslaw]

Very high chance of at least 27 degrees being recorded at some point from Wednesday onwards. My guess is the following -

Tues - highest max 25 degrees somewhere like Gravesend

Wed - 27 degrees again somewhere like Gravesend

Thurs/Fri - 28 degrees quite probable with an extreme outside chance of 29 degrees - Gravesend again why not..

Sat- 27 or 28 degrees

Friday and Saturday will see the peak of the warm conditions.

Still many parts of the SE look like seeing 5 days of temps at or above 25 degrees, very respectable for mid summer, but quite exceptional for late sept/early october.

We look to loose the very warm uppers by Sunday, but only slowly in the SE and East.

[summer blizzard]

Very high chance of at least 27 degrees being recorded at some point from Wednesday onwards. My guess is the following -

Tues - highest max 25 degrees somewhere like Gravesend

Wed - 27 degrees again somewhere like Gravesend

Thurs/Fri - 28 degrees quite probable with an extreme outside chance of 29 degrees - Gravesend again why not..

Sat- 27 or 28 degrees

Friday and Saturday will see the peak of the warm conditions.

Still many parts of the SE look like seeing 5 days of temps at or above 25 degrees, very respectable for mid summer, but quite exceptional for late sept/early october.

We look to loose the very warm uppers by Sunday, but only slowly in the SE and East.

I agree, the peak looks to be friday as from thursday night onward the centre of the high moves west which will leader to lower dewpoints and with night being longer than day, we will begin to cool down from friday. Peak for me will be 28.*C.

[Roger J Smith]

Someone has to say this, 30.2 at Heathrow, Northolt and my uncle's house (here, I have some control over the result).

[ZONE 51]

A quick animation of the temperatures during afternoons from monday today to next monday.

as you can see the heat pushing up then moving away by the 3rd oct.

GFS - 18z

[jean91]

Hello to all, here is Paris some forecasters say we could reach 25c up untill the 3rd october exept today which should be 24c 25c . wenesday looks like being the warmest locally in paris we could have 28c.

In many parts of France september mean temp will be warmer than july.second time ( 2006 was the same exeptionnaly warm september after a cool august )

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Very high chance of at least 27 degrees being recorded at some point from Wednesday onwards. My guess is the following -

Tues - highest max 25 degrees somewhere like Gravesend

Wed - 27 degrees again somewhere like Gravesend

Thurs/Fri - 28 degrees quite probable with an extreme outside chance of 29 degrees - Gravesend again why not..

Sat- 27 or 28 degrees

Friday and Saturday will see the peak of the warm conditions.

Still many parts of the SE look like seeing 5 days of temps at or above 25 degrees, very respectable for mid summer, but quite exceptional for late sept/early october.

We look to loose the very warm uppers by Sunday, but only slowly in the SE and East.

lol the last bit makes no sense! unless its meant to say lose the very warm uppers

[Chris K]

I'm looking forward to a week of nice weather. Hopefully it'll be nicer due to the fact the nights won't be as uncomfortable as we get in July heat for example. Warm sunny days, but mild nights rather than the oppressive 18/19/20 degrees to sleep in. It's a shame I'm spending every day in the office. Not fun suit weather...bring on the weekend!

I'm just interested to see now how the warm weather eventually breaks down, especially with the talk of colder north-westerly/northerly wind, coming in quite fast after the warmth, being a possibility - although still too far out in FI for any certainty in the models obviously.

I would of loved a thundery breakdown to end the warmth with a bang, but it just looks so unlikely. I've come to expect that though for 2011

[Coast]

In many parts of France september mean temp will be warmer than july.second time ( 2006 was the same exeptionnaly warm september after a cool august )

I bet you get a lovely thundery breakdown at the end of it all as well!

[conor123]

GFS and UKMO both extending the warmth even longer now, however 27c+ is seeming increasingly unlikely with temperatures more likely to peak around 25-26c now.

[Beasterly]

I'm guessing 27.5C in somewhere like Cambridge.

[Terminal Moraine]

In the last 35 years only 3 Octobers here have managed a max' of 20c or higher and each one of them was followed by a cold and snowy winter. The Octobers in question were 1978, 1985 and 1995.

Of course Saturday hasn't arrived yet but it does look possible that the max' might reach 20c even here.

Dare we read anything into this or is it merely a sequence waiting to be broken? ( He asks with tongue firmly in cheek )

[TonyH]

GFS seems to have drastically understated the warmth to come, showing highs of just 24c this week. Still think 28c will be beat in the SE, 27c in the Midlands, and 25c here, the draw is all the way from north Africa after all.

[Robbie Garrett]

Can someone explain to me why Gravesend is always the hottest place in the UK?

[conor123]

ECM also extends the warmth for England & Wales now, the breakdown seems to of been delayed to next Monday so 6 days in a row of 21c+ starting tommorow seems guaranteed for the majority south of Manchester at least!

[Isolated Frost]

Can someone explain to me why Gravesend is always the hottest place in the UK?

It's not always - Solent in winter and Herstmonceux, and other places in Surrey, Sussex and Essex/EA often do very well - as do some W Midlands places. Gravesend often gets very warm temperatures in tC flows as it's definitely heated alot in the Thames Estuary, but the main reason is that the Downs are situated just south of Gravesend and this creates a Fohn Effect, due to adiabatic warming. This usually occurs in southerlies as the downs are south to the weather station and town itself. Very dry place, and due to the Downs, the hottest in Britain.

But under SW'lies it does not get this effect, and so places in Surrey, Sussex, Hampshire etc. are usually warmer.

There is also alot of earthworks around the area due to the High Speed rail, which could add a degree or two.

[Andy Bown]

,Not very warm in the sun,

What sun were you in?

I was outside working between 09.00-13.00 and it was very warm and mostly sunny with around 19c and humidity of nearing 90%!

[Costa Del Fal]

ECM also extends the warmth for England & Wales now, the breakdown seems to of been delayed to next Monday so 6 days in a row of 21c+ starting tommorow seems guaranteed for the majority south of Manchester at least!

If your happy then we all should be.

It does look great doesnt it. Peaking around Friday/Saturday but still well above average till Monday at least. Possibly a little longer than this! Im expecting a 27c here given here is usually one of the warmer parts of the region and the rest of the Severn region through Worcestershire especially.

Whilst in summer these temperatures these temperatures would be very warm (Although in Actual Summer we would be looking at 31-33c Maxes) the temperatures we are getting this week for the very end of September/Early October is rather Hot! Impressive stuff.

Edited September 26, 2011 by Blizzards

[Geordiesnow]

I'm wondering how clear the skies will be under this high pressure cell, the skies did become a bit hazy this afternoon and there is alot of high cloud over France this afternoon. Be interesting whether it will be milky skies or a more pale blue sky, hopefully it will be the latter.

Of course low cloud will be a little slower to shift so some may have to have some paitence for it to clear although the South coast may stay cloudy all day.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm quite excited by this upcoming spell- it looks like the Tyne and Wear coast won't be affected significantly by sea breezes due to the pronounced southerly airstream, and it's a long time since we had significant temperature deviations from the long-term average (on either side)- 26th/27th June to be precise!

The skies here at Cleadon didn't really turn milky/hazy- it was an area of high cloud, with cirrostratus and altostratus blotting out the sun for a while, and dust/pollution levels remained low. Regarding haze amounts I think they will probably be pretty low midweek but will most likely increase towards the end of the week as we pick up more of a continental influence from the SE, meaning higher dust/pollution content is likely.

[Isolated Frost]

Dew point maximums (!) on the GFS 12Z:

Tuesday - 11-14C in Scotland, Northern England and Eastern England

14-17C in Wales, Northern Ireland and Southern England

Wednesday - 14-17C nationwide

Thursday - 14-17C nationwide

Friday - 15-17C nationwide except NW Scotland and the South Coast

Saturday - 13-16C nationwide

Sunday - 13-16C nationwide except Northern Scotland

Could become a tad uncomfortable for some, but generally, these are okay, unless they pass 65-70f (18C-21C). Generally a similar theme with the warmest on Wed to Fri - this should limit low temperatures to above 10C.

[Raidan]

Andy i was stuck inside most of the day so didn't see what the weather was doing for most of the day when i did get outside the sun was there but was quite overcast and looked like it might rain,I respect it was warm where you were but from what i saw here it wasn't that great

[Lake District Blizzard]

If projected temperatures come off it will be the warmest spell of the year here with at least 3 days of 24c forecast, what i won't be able to stand is it ruined in any way by cloud / rain from the west

[Cheese Rice]

Its like the night before the start of a mega cold spell, just as exciting.

I gave up hope looking for hot weather at the start of September, and since then we have seen constant 14-16.c maxes so to reach 25/26.c will be a pretty big shock to the system.

Ironic that this is the best 5 day forecast we have had all year yet its nearly mid autumn.

On a side note will this affect the trees in any-way. Will they carry on browning or will it just temporarily stop?

Also Its interesting that back in October 2008 people were saying its strange seeing trees in full leaf with snow on, now we are seeing many hues yet in hot weather.

Edited September 26, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[coldfingers]

What sun were you in?

I was outside working between 09.00-13.00 and it was very warm and mostly sunny with around 19c and humidity of nearing 90%!

Last night I was tossing and turning trying to sleep at 1:00am then I realised why when I checked the temperature. Outside was 18.6C with an increase inside to 23C. No heating yet on. Thankfully tonight is a nice (relatively) cool 15C!!!! Still too warm for sleeping without the windows wide open. One of the questionable pleasure of living on the South Coast I suppose. Although I do remember many years ago waking up to a very white frost on the 1st October. No chance this year.

There's actually more heavy PPN in southern England right now than northern France.

I would love to know where it was. Not a drop on the coast here. I suspect it was likely north of the South downs.

Edited September 26, 2011 by coldfingers