Sept into Oct 2011 Warm Spell Discussion..

[Aaron]

Which people said it was as good as July 2006?

The odd person or two, but I shan't name anyone.

[summer blizzard]

Heres one for you....

Supposing the entire warm spell (Wednesday-Monday) had occurred on the last 6 days of September what would the whole Month's CET have been. 3 very warm days at the end raised the CET by an awful lot. What if it had been 6 days. I know its not technically possible to calculate it but maybe a rough estimate of where we might have finished.

It is possible but off the top of my head i would say less than 0.5C.

[jean91]

This last heat wave is not to be compared to july 2006 (july 2006 is more on a par with august 2003)and i think you need to compare theses heat waves of 5 to 10 days with others periods that long.

On a natinal scale we are at least 2c above in many parts and up or way above 3c in south west and south east

Not sure if it is since 1950 but We are at either 4th or 5th rank after 1949 , 1961, and 2006 , then 1991 or 20011.

To notice:/Toulouse Blagnac ( in the south west) they missed their all time high of average temperature for a month sept 20011 is 21.55c and september 1987 is 21c60 had they broken this mean average that would have been the third month to break the mean average ( april and may) this year.

Edited October 5, 2011 by jean91

[Weather-history]

Heres one for you....

Supposing the entire warm spell (Wednesday-Monday) had occurred on the last 6 days of September what would the whole Month's CET have been. 3 very warm days at the end raised the CET by an awful lot. What if it had been 6 days. I know its not technically possible to calculate it but maybe a rough estimate of where we might have finished.

4th September-3rd October CET: 15.4C, so just 0.3C up on the September value.

Edited October 5, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Milhouse]

Not as much as i thought then but i suppose as the current CET rises its gets more difficult to achieve an increase at the same rate, especially right at the end of the month.

An individual day mean of 19c would deliver a larger increase if the current CET was 14c than it would if it was 15c.