Far North - Potential Storm - Monday 3rd October

[ZONE 51]

Storm Watch.

Looking at the models there seems a risk of a potential damaging gale for the far North UK, this is from model runs 18z, this deep low pressure system winding up to produce severe gales brushing the far North on monday 3rd october, at this stage it looks like thats the area most at risk, this could change and shift the potential storm further South or North.

Here are some charts to start off.

moderators please change titles if needed. im going to leave this for more expert thoughts and what the risk is with this developing situation.

[Coast]

Does look a touch windy oop North!

[Cookie]

Bring it on

Gale warnings - Issued: 0937 UTC Sun 02 Oct

Southerly gale force 8 imminent, veering southwesterly and increasing storm force 10 later

Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1030 UTC Sun 02 Oct

Wind Southerly or southwesterly, 5 at first in east, otherwise 6 to gale 8, becoming cyclonic gale 8 to storm 10 later, perhaps violent storm 11 later. Sea State Rough becoming very rough or high, occasionally very high later. Weather Occasional rain. Visibility Good becoming moderate or poor.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~Hebrides

[Aaron]

http://www.wdsu.com/hurricanetracker/index.html

Ophelia is doing a Katia.. so unoriginal.

[Cookie]

not the same storm though mate

[Cookie]

winds already reaching 42 mph here, starting to get excited about 2morrow and the potential winds

[Liam J]

Looks like just the far north of Scotland will see severe gales, it may just miss the mainland and give the N Isles a hammering.

[ZONE 51]

This ones going to be a close shave for the Far North UK.

I have drawn up a gale risk chart, this is something new i am doing this autumn and winter, using the same maps as i did for convective activity in spring and summer time, these maps show hills and mountains. There is the potential for a swath of high gales to hit far North, its not causing any alerts-at this stage, this is because the winds are not looking damaging over land areas, although gales with full leaf trees is of course a concern.

So its mostly gales unless there is upgrade which is not that likely now we are within the reliable time frame, some areas of the far North is likely to see very very strong gusts of wind.

alerts usually go out for anything over 70mph, which the wind charts are not showing over land as far as i can read them.

-

Gale Risk Map below

[Cookie]

Gusting 55 mph here at the moment!

[knocker]

The 0600z surface chart.

[Hairy Celt]

Squally just now. The trip to the lighthouse is delayed!

[knocker]

The midday chart.

[Cookie]

68.8 mph here top gust

[Hairy Celt]

The midday chart.

That front was in a rush! The afternoon was very different to the morning, really gusty and showery after a calm morning.

[ZONE 51]

It was a very windy day for some..

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&DATE=1317641400&CONT=euro&LAND=UK&KEY=UK&SORT=2&INT=24&TYP=windspitzen&ART=kartealle&RUBRIK=akt&R=310&CEL=C

[Nick F]

Pool of sub -30C air at 500mb moves in across northern Britain Thursday morning from the W/NW, so should be some lively showers with hail and thunder developing towards Northern Ireland and western coasts of NW England and Scotland in the morning, as lapse rates steepen above the relatively warmer seas.

Some of these showers spreading inland on the strong northwesterly wind, perhaps the Cheshire Gap favoured. With the ground still warm from the recent heatwave across England and Wales, we may see sufficient low-level boyancy for a few livel showers making it inland from the coast too. Though greatest risk of thunder looks to be towards the northwest coastal areas of Britain.