Major Hurricane Jova

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 98E has become a tropical depression at around 10N, 104W. Strengthening is forecast but may be tempered slightly by moderate shear. I'll have a full update later.

[summer blizzard]

10E will likely be upgraded at the next advisory as convection is very strong although it is for the most part lacking banding features as Irwin seems to be feeding right now.

NHC make this a hurricane eventually and all models go for a Mexican landfall. Because 10E is smaller and weaker right now i would expect that as long as 10E trails Irwin, it will stay the weaker of the two however once they recurve and 10E takes the lead, it should develop more rapidly as it is much smaller.

[Somerset Squall]

10E is close to becoming a tropical storm. Convection is very deep and expansive, but the depression lacks banding features. Intensity remains at 30kts currently. 10E is in a similar steering environment as Irwin to the west, and this is important. 10E is not going to head typically west-northwestwards out to sea. Instead, a large trough swinging into Baja California is going to break down the ridging north of the depression and force 10E northeastwards. By day 4 or 5, the cyclone will be making landfall on the Mexican coast, potentially as a hurricane as shear will remain low and waters warm to support intensification. Mexico need to keep a close eye on 10E (and indeed Irwin as Irwin will likely follow 10E) for this reason. Pinpointing exact landfall location at this time is impossible, so 10E is well worth watching.

[Somerset Squall]

10E has gradually gained organisation this evening and has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Jova, with intensity rising to 35kts. The rather shapeless area of convection appears to be morphing into a central dense overcast feature with the formation of banding features, particularly in the northern quadrant.

[Somerset Squall]

Jova has strengthened to 50kts this evening. The storm has a huge area of very deep convection expanding out from the LLC. Conditions are good for further strengthening with low shear and warm sea temperatures persisting right up to landfall in Mexico. NHC forecast a peak of category 3 strength but there is a chance Jova could achieve more than this. Mexico need to be very wary of Jova.

[summer blizzard]

Jova has now made the turn to the north east and as a result has become the primary storm (when you move towards another storm you get relative shear - think of it like air resistance behind another car), thus we now have Hurricane Jova, expected to undergo RI and become a major hurricane.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, Jova is now a 75kt cat 1 hurricane moving to the east. The storm has a well developed CDO feature flanked by strong banding. Shear is low and waters are warm, so Jova should continue to strengthen. Jova will move continue to move eastwards along the south side of a trough to the north, followed by a north turn into the south coast of Mexico as a second trough picks up Jova.

[knocker]

Latest sat. image.

[Somerset Squall]

Jova has intensified to 80kts. On latest satelite imagery, an eye seems to be clearing out in the CDO feature. I expect this is a sign of some faster intensification to come. It'll be interesting to see what recon find when they investigate Jova.

[Paranoid]

As expected, Jova is undergoing RI and is now a Category 3. NHC forecast her to reach Category 4 before landfall which could cause some severe damage, especially as landfalling major hurricanes are much rarer in the East Pacific than they are in the Atlantic.

[knocker]

20111010.1030.goes11.x.ir1km_bw.10EJOVA.95kts-967mb-164N-1072W.86pc.jpg

[Somerset Squall]

Intensity is now 105kts. As Paranoid says, NHC forecast a cat 4 peak. The major hurricane certainly has a well defined, clear eye on satelite imagery. Not good for Mexico.

[knocker]

As you say SS it has a well developed eye and certainly looking very dodgy for the coastal regions of Mexico.

20111010.1430.goes11.x.vis1km_high.10EJOVA.110kts-957mb-163N-1070W.100pc.jpg |

[knocker]

Wednesday at the moment appears to be critical for the coastal areas.

20111010.2030.goes11.x.vis1km_high.10EJOVA.110kts-957mb-165N-1064W.100pc.jpg |

Edited October 10, 2011 by weather ship

[knocker]

Latest sat. imagery shows Jova has no defined eye and is perhaps weakening slightly although it still looks pretty tense along the coast for 00z tonight.

[knocker]

The latest on Jova.

20111011.1602.goes13.x.vis1km_high.10EJOVA.100kts-963mb-176N-1057W.87pc.jpg |

[summer blizzard]

It looks like GFS may have been right from the beggining. Pretty much from the beggining GFS was forecasting rapid weakening before landfall due to a slow track and dry air ingestion. We have not seen weakening yet however it does look to have steadied out.

[knocker]

It looks like GFS may have been right from the beggining. Pretty much from the beggining GFS was forecasting rapid weakening before landfall due to a slow track and dry air ingestion. We have not seen weakening yet however it does look to have steadied out.

I had a quick look at the 1800z synoptic chart for Mexico earlier and it was significant because of the lack of any strong wind field.

[summer blizzard]

Sadly, a hurricane is never going to make landfall as a category 4/5 if it is moving at 6mph into a desert, its like sucking in poison.

I had a quick look at the 1800z synoptic chart for Mexico earlier and it was significant because of the lack of any strong wind field.

[knocker]

Sadly, a hurricane is never going to make landfall as a category 4/5 if it is moving at 6mph into a desert, its like sucking in poison.

Sadly?

[summer blizzard]

Sadly?

Providing nobody gets killed i love big hurricanes making landfall.

I actually have little sympathy for the destruction of property ect.. which people may consider wrong however we live in a world where you can choose where to live in that country, if you choose to live in a place where hurricanes hit (New Orleans for example) then i have little sympathy if your roof gets blown off.

[knocker]

Providing nobody gets killed i love big hurricanes making landfall.

I actually have little sympathy for the destruction of property ect.. which people may consider wrong however we live in a world where you can choose where to live in that country, if you choose to live in a place where hurricanes hit (New Orleans for example) then i have little sympathy if your roof gets blown off.

While it's true that millions of people live in areas that are susceptible to severe weather events do you not think it a tad arrogant to suggest many have a choice? Where exactly were the 500,000 who lost their lives in east Pakistan because of the Bhola cyclone supposed to be living. On a more local note should Portreath be abandoned because it's ideally placed to suffer an event similar to the two that have hit Boscastle in recent years?

[Team Jo]

Providing nobody gets killed i love big hurricanes making landfall.

I actually have little sympathy for the destruction of property ect.. which people may consider wrong however we live in a world where you can choose where to live in that country, if you choose to live in a place where hurricanes hit (New Orleans for example) then i have little sympathy if your roof gets blown off.

Wow. Maybe it hadn't occurred to you that people living in prone parts of the world do so because they simply cannot afford to up sticks and move elsewhere? Choose your words more carefully next time champ.

Edited October 12, 2011 by Teamjollie

[Somerset Squall]

Jova has killed 5 people in Mexico, but has not been (so far) as deadly as TD 12E which has killed 13.

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2011/10/13/hurricane-jova-kills-at-least-5-people-in-mexico/

[scotty_boy_winter]

I know I've been criticised for criticising some of your posts in the best SB but while I know you love hurricanes and extreme weather (as do I) comments like sadly are a little narrow minded and worrying to say the least.

Providing nobody gets killed i love big hurricanes making landfall.

I actually have little sympathy for the destruction of property ect.. which people may consider wrong however we live in a world where you can choose where to live in that country, if you choose to live in a place where hurricanes hit (New Orleans for example) then i have little sympathy if your roof gets blown off.