Britain Faces A Mini Ice Age

[Weather-history]

Of course there was. And a few less cold winters than "normal" in one decade is all part of the variations in the climate just like the little ice age was, conversely, a period of a few more cold winters than "normal".

There wasn't really was there. 4 of the warmest winters on record occurred within that period, 3 of the warmest autumns on record occurred period within that period, 4 of the warmest springs on record occurred within that period, 3 of the warmest summers on record within that period,

9 of the top 10 warmest years occurred with that period.

It is clear there was not a varied distribution of cold/warm in that period (1988-2008) because if there was, you wouldn't have so many in the higher rankings of warmth.

Edited October 10, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Weather-history]

. I do not believe that solar radiation variations are responsible for the recent colder winters we've had in the UK, and I observe that the media are overplaying all this because it attracts sales. That's about it really.

All right lets look at it this way, something has happened in the last 3 years, where cold synoptics has increased in frequency for the UK for us to record more notable cool periods than we haven't seen for 25 years, a period where the warm synoptics far outweigh the cold synoptics. And it just so happens that the last 3 years have seen low solar activity that we haven't seen since for nearly a century. You think that is a coincidence?

Months below the 1971-2000 average since January 2001

Aug 2011: 15.4 (-0.8

July 2011: 15.2 (-1.3)

June 2011: 13.8 (-0.3)

Jan 2011: 3.7 (-0.5)

Dec 2010: -0.7 (-5.8

Nov 2010: 5.2 (-1.7)

Oct 2010: 10.3 (-0.1)

Aug 2010: 15.3 (-0.9)

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.6)

Mar 2010: 6.1 (-0.2)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.4)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.8

Dec 2009: 3.1 (-2.0)

Jul 2009: 16.1 (-0.4)

Feb 2009: 4.1 [-0.1]

Jan 2009: 3.0 [-1.2]

Dec 2008: 3.5 (-1.6)

Oct 2008: 9.7 (-0.7)

Sep 2008: 13.5 (-0.2)

Jul 2008: 16.2 (-0.3)

Jun 2008: 13.9 (-0.2)

Apr 2008: 7.9 (-0.2)

Mar 2008: 6.1 (-0.2)

Dec 2007: 4.9 (-0.2)

Aug 2007: 15.4 (-0.8

July 2007: 15.2 (-1.3)

Aug 2006: 16.1 (-0.1)

Mar 2006: 4.9 (-1.4)

Feb 2006: 3.7 (-0.5)

Dec 2005: 4.4 (-0.7)

Nov 2005: 6.2 (-0.7)

July 2004: 15.8 (-0.7)

Dec 2003: 4.8 (-0.3)

Oct 2003: 9.2 (-1.2)

Feb 2003: 3.9 (-0.3)

Oct 2002: 10.1 (-0.3)

Jul 2002: 16.0 (-0.5)

Dec 2001: 3.6 (-1.5)

Sep 2001: 13.4 (-0.3)

Apr 2001: 7.7 (-0.4)

Mar 2001: 5.2 (-1.1)

Jan 2001: 3.2 (-1.0)

The last 3 months have resulted in the coolest summer since 1988.

Below average seasons since 2001 against the 1961-90 averages

Winter 2008-09: 3.5 (-0.6)

Winter 2009-10: 2.4 (-1.7)

Winter 2010-11: 3.1 (-1.0)

Summer 2007: 15.2 (-0.1)

Summer 2011: 14.8 (-0.5)

Autumn 2008: 10.1 (-0.1)

Autumn 2010: 9.8 (-0.4)

Half of those in that list have occured since and including June 2008.

21 in 89 months

21 in 39 months

Edited October 10, 2011 by Mr_Data

[4wd]

You have a better explanation?

- pure chance?

It's plausible that reduced solar activity tends to favour a different set of synoptics which happens to mean High Pressure over northern europe, and increased easterlyness or less westerlyness for us.

[Weather-history]

Why is it plausible and who said so? Plausible to you? Why? What scientific research have you done to think so huh?

All I know is that this theory goes back to the Victorian era. This is not new, I have articles written back in the mid to late Victorian era speculating on sunspots and the effect on temperatures. Its clear that this 130 odd year theory hasn't been disproved otherwise we wouldn't be talking about it after all this time.

Edited October 10, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Essan]

Maybe the press have got 2+2 and come up with 7

More like the press have got 2+2 and come up with a cheese sandwich

Response from the MetO:

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/

[phil nw.]

Better explanation than what explanation?

Nobody has come close to "explaining" this solar radiation speculation in any way, shape or form.

That I don't have any other ideas particularly does nothing to stop me having an opinion that the solar radiation link is a fallacy, based on what little I do know.

For example, instead of asking me to explain things how about this?

YOU explain to ME, why "it's plausible that reduced solar activity tends to favour a different set of synoptics which happens to mean High Pressure over northern europe, and increased easterlyness or less westerlyness for us."

This is empty blurb. Why is it plausible and who said so? Plausible to you? Why? What scientific research have you done to think so?

Until anybody can offer concrete, 100%, clear evidence of solar radiation causing this in some way, I have every right and reasoning to be skeptical of it, OK?

Yes you have every right to be sceptical but certainly in the last 3 or so years sypnotics have been different.

More Northern blocking,jet stream often further South than in the 20 warmer years,mentioned by Mr Data.and less activity from the Atlantic.

That in itself iis *interesting* as it has coincided with low solar activity.

As ever time will tell if there is a link.

[cyclonic happiness]

The trouble with these islands is that they have been placed in a very strange and lucky spot on the globe.

We benifited from the gulf stream and plenty of moisture from the ocean and with a prevailing west ot east windflow that also helps to keep us warmer than we should be.

And not just warmer, ALOT warmer, so it would only take a little bit of a nudge to flip us out of the sweet spot and into winters that, by right, we should get anyway.

Just look at the southerly jet over the past few years and the lack of rain for central and southern Britain and the lack of southwesterlies.

The weather patterns here have changed drastically over the past few years and it's been noticed by everyone!

Also, we are still in the same synoptics as we've been since the 'flip' happened, so this winter very much more likely to be cold and dry.

and I'd bet alot of money on most of the cold weather being before christmas and for it to get mild again afterwards and for the spring to be very mild, if not warm again and until the weather flips back to 'normal' I don't see how it could change?

But the one thing that I'd like to know as to whether we are going into a little ice age or not, is...is the change stopped, is it reversing or is it getting more intense...........we'll know after this winter I think.

[Nights King]

The trouble with these islands is that they have been placed in a very strange and lucky spot on the globe.

We benifited from the gulf stream and plenty of moisture from the ocean and with a prevailing west ot east windflow that also helps to keep us warmer than we should be.

And not just warmer, ALOT warmer, so it would only take a little bit of a nudge to flip us out of the sweet spot and into winters that, by right, we should get anyway.

Just look at the southerly jet over the past few years and the lack of rain for central and southern Britain and the lack of southwesterlies.

The weather patterns here have changed drastically over the past few years and it's been noticed by everyone!

Also, we are still in the same synoptics as we've been since the 'flip' happened, so this winter very much more likely to be cold and dry.

and I'd bet alot of money on most of the cold weather being before christmas and for it to get mild again afterwards and for the spring to be very mild, if not warm again and until the weather flips back to 'normal' I don't see how it could change?

But the one thing that I'd like to know as to whether we are going into a little ice age or not, is...is the change stopped, is it reversing or is it getting more intense...........we'll know after this winter I think.

Would our slide into a 'mini iceage' not be slowed temporarily by this weak solar maximum that we are heading into though? Maybe we have just had a taster of winters to come in 5-10 years time when a proper prolonged solar minimum occurs?

[sebastiaan1973]

The 'forcast' of Madden has even reached Dutch television and newspaper

http://www.ad.nl/ad/nl/1012/Binnenland/article/detail/2961725/2011/10/10/Extreme-winter-op-komst.dhtml

http://translate.google.nl/translate?sl=nl&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=nl&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ad.nl%2Fad%2Fnl%2F1012%2FBinnenland%2Farticle%2Fdetail%2F2961725%2F2011%2F10%2F10%2FExtreme-winter-op-komst.dhtml

[Rollo]

Weather forecasters get long range predictions wrong as many if not more than the times that they are right. Our life spans are so short relative to major weather shifts that having say 3 cold winters in a row proves absolutely nothing,James Madden uses certain facts or facts as he reads them to make his forecasts and papers like the Express do him no favours,others view other information and may take the opposite view,I for one yearn for another cold snowy winter but it's best to just wait and see.

[Robbie Garrett]

As far as the "solar activity" link goes, yes it is a total complete co-incidence. What about the 1947 winter, the 1962-63 winter, cold winter months like Feb '86, Jan '87, Feb '91, list goes on. Was that all "low solar activity", which somehow affected only the UK more than everywhere else, for some strange reason?

I don't know If that could be true, but below in red is all the solar minimums, with all the winters you mention occurring quite near and very near to them.

1890, 1902, 1923, 1944, (1947 winter) 1954, (1962-3 winter) 1964, 1976, 1986, (1986, 87, 91 winters) 1996, 2008, (2008, 09, 10, 11??? Winters) 20XX????

We are currently in Solar Cycle 24, and It is predicted that Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with about 58 sunspots.

This would make it the least active cycle since Cycle 6, which ended in the year 1823. Looking at Netweather's history if British Winters, SOME very Big Winters occurred in the early 1800s when we last had very low sunspot maximas. http://www.netweathe...=winthist;sess=

Just from a little research it's quite clear that low sunspot maximas, give some very harsh winters and I can now understand why they are saying we are heading into another period to that similar in the early 1800s.

Regards,

Robbie

Edited October 10, 2011 by Robbie Garrett

[Robbie Garrett]

A tentative link at best. When I finally see any real causative evidence that properly confirms a link I might give it some more credence.

What is the best way to go about it? As what I've done was purely done in 1 hour from just research, that any nutjob journalist can do. It is clear though, that when we last had a solar maxima this low, there was some co-incidental harsh winters. Similar to the ones we are having now.

Weather or not they are connected is beyond my knowledge, but it just goes to show that if what they are saying is correct and what is happening is true, regardless of how credible the link is. The winters of 2008/09/10/11 are just the beginning.

Edited October 10, 2011 by Robbie Garrett

[mikeocarroll]

does this lower solar activity then explain the record mild in parts of north east Canada and Greenland in recent winters? How does that fit into the picture? Would lower solar activity also have such an instantaneous effect on the weather anyway? I should think not. It's an incorrect but convenient pet theory without much basis in reality. Then the media pick up on it and go to town with it. Well I don't buy it.

Actually the Met Office researchers conclude that the low solar activity is responsible for warm temps in Canada & Greenland as well as the Eastern Med - see the link here http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15199065 which is linked to from the Met Office blog as an "accurate" report of the research:

""The key point is that this effect is a change in the circulation, moving air from one place to another, which is why some places get cold and others get warm," said Adam Scaife, one of the researchers on the paper, who heads the UK Met Office's Seasonal to Decadal Prediction team."

I'm not saying that the solar activity theory is necessarily right, but it is a theory that has enough to it to be taken credibly and warrant further study.

[UV-RAY]

Sounds to me like it's all "Up in the air" and that nobody seems to have the knowledge to be able to either prove or disprove it. So pardon me if I hold my reservations about it.

Sounds to me like it's all "Up in the air" and that nobody seems to have the knowledge to be able to either prove or disprove it. So pardon me if I hold my reservations about it.

I'm sorry but you take a computer simulated model which have been found wanting with regards to forecasting global temps, but then want 100% proof that there lye's a correlation between reduced solar output and cooling temps. Where is the 100% proof that climate models are right?

[DAVID SNOW]

For those who may be interested.

Google,Maunder,Dalton and Sporer Minimum.

[Robbie Garrett]

For those who may be interested.

Google,Maunder,Dalton and Sporer Minimum.

Fantastic is there any reports of harsh winters during the Maunder Minimum, or was it +45*C every summer/winter?

[J10]

To me the recent run of cold winters and average at best summers, together with the Jet Stream being further south than normal and the sunspot activity is recent years is evidence to suggest there is a link between sunspot activity and cool weather over the UK. The evidence also posted by Mr Data earlier, helps makes this case better than I could.

However history is littered with period of warmer periods and colder periods and this is nothing new, and also this doesn't detract from a general upward trend in temperatures.

So in short, this is very interesting reached, but to be hijacked by this OTT reporting of "mini ice ages" trivialises the issue.

[johnholmes]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/solar-variability

the link above is the full, I think, comment on the Research section of the Met O web site.

Coupled with the link given above by Mike Carroll it shows a fascinating insight, when one reads items out of some newspapers, into how sections of the media will distort what they are given, be it written or spoken.

[Optimus Prime]

it's interesting but nothing more. it certainly isn't a mini ice age out there across the globe right now is it?

I found the BBC article to be a lot more reasonable in terms of basic Science reading to me. Whilst the UK has recently had some severe spells of cold weather and abnormal summer activity, other areas of the globe have had exceptional mild as a result of the displacement of cold air further south. Unlike during the 1978/1979 winter where severe cold dominated the northern hemisphere.

For me, this only suggests there is a temporary change in the climate as a result of a number of unusual factors.

[DAVID SNOW]

it's interesting but nothing more. it certainly isn't a mini ice age out there across the globe right now is it?

I found the BBC article to be a lot more reasonable in terms of basic Science reading to me. Whilst the UK has recently had some severe spells of cold weather and abnormal summer activity, other areas of the globe have had exceptional mild as a result of the displacement of cold air further south. Unlike during the 1978/1979 winter where severe cold dominated the northern hemisphere.

For me, this only suggests there is a temporary change in the climate as a result of a number of unusual factors.

Ok then, lets see how low long these temporary changes last.

[stewfox]

You have a better explanation?

- pure chance?

It's plausible that reduced solar activity tends to favour a different set of synoptics which happens to mean High Pressure over northern europe, and increased easterlyness or less westerlyness for us.

Makes sense to me

The little ice age certainly wasn't global but perhaps such activity can lead to suttle changes in synoptics which could lead to some areas have colder then average temps others warmer and over a 50/100 yr or 300yr period

[wimblettben]

A wait and see situation is what I think of it.

These long range forecasts are rarely proved 100% accurate anyway let alone 50%.

[Geordiesnow]

I have to admit to get sick of forecasts getting taken totally out of context by an sensationalism headline to attract(and probably scare) readers who most are not knowledgable on the weather unlike us lot. Even the recent forecast of the -20 headline, it does not say anywhere of -20 is going to occur but references were made that the temperature could drop below that figure.

The science between low sunspot activity and colder weather for Western Europe seems plausible but we need more than a few years data to prove this. Only a few years ago people on these forums were suggesting we will never get another cold winter now with a few cold winters on the trot all I seem to be seeing on here and in newspapers is that we could be heading into an cold period.

Its just like when the hot summers happened, we had the media(and probably weather forums like this one) have Global warming ramped up that we are going to get even hotter summers and prolonged drought conditions yet apart from some isolated drought restrictions, it has not come to fruition even though GW seems fairly obvious with hotter upper air temps on N hemisphere charts and an ever decreasing Arctic Sea Ice.

I think I'll be old fashioned and look at the charts and see what weather patterns get thrown up at us because looking at all the background science would just pull my hair out!

[Buzzit]

As with many scientific theories, at this time there is not enough measurable support for the grand idea, but there is every chance a link will be proven in future.

I personally wish that the scientific community pooled resources and concentrated on being able to consistently successfuly predict (over 90%) global weather at a longer and longer timeframe. Only with this success will the long term patterns and influences become obvious.

As an example : We should have planes flying up to the Arctic from the UK every day to collect data points that are currently unavailable.

Edited October 10, 2011 by Buzzit

[Crepuscular Ray]

I think this one is more about sloppy journalism than anything else.