November Cet

[Liam J]

8.8c

[feb1991blizzard]

An exceptionally mild first 10 days, followed by a cooler anticyclonic period with a mix and match end, no severe snowy end like last year but by then even in the midlands -2 or even lower is nothing ridiculously out of the ordinary under clearing skies and it wouldnt need many of these to drag it back to somewhere near average and any mild wet days by then are more likely to have max temps of 11 or 12c rather than the 15c thats likely to be on offer for the first third of the month.

7.7 please.

[damianslaw]

Yet another month starting on a very mild note, repeating March, April, May, Sept and October.

Mins this evening are very mild and I suspect the CET value by the end of the week will be running 3-4 degrees above the norm possibly even more than this. Mind there have been many very mild starts to Novembers in years gone by. 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010 all had very mild first weeks.

Would be interested to see what the CET value by the 7th Nov for the last 10 Novembers was.

Also does anyone know when netweather November forecast will be posted - its a bit of a cheat that we receive them some 4 days or so into the month - I think they should be posted at the end of the preceeding month.

[summer blizzard]

I had no idea that November 2006 started so cool.

It should be noted that Novembers 2005 and 2010 are actually the coldest and 4th coldest second halfs to November in the past 60 years.

[damianslaw]

Thanks to the stats - yes we are seeing a very similiar start to November as in 2005. That month saw a marked switcharound mid-month with a long cold period thereafter. Interesting to see how cool 2006 started but then rapidly warmed up after the first week. I remember the cool weather was caused by high pressure directly overhead.

As can be seen most recent Novembers have started on a very mild note - very difficult to see much cooler than average temps at this time in the year - this does change rapidly though as we reach mid month.

[BornFromTheVoid]

12.5C to the 3rd

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 14.2C. Minimum for today is 11.1C while maxima were around 14C, so we should remain on 12.5C tomorrow.

After that, going by the 12z GFS we'll be at

12.1C to the 5th (10.5)

11.5C to the 6th (8.5)

11.0C to the 7th (7.6)

10.6C to the 8th (8.4)

10.8C to the 9th (11.8]

10.9C to the 10th (12.5)

10.9C to the 11th (10.9)

Edited November 4, 2011 by BornFromTheVoid

[Isolated Frost]

Mad mild stuff- 2c above the OCTOBER average!

[Snowstorm1]

You watch this CET fall rapidly mid month onwards especially.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I had no idea that November 2006 started so cool.

It should be noted that Novembers 2005 and 2010 are actually the coldest and 4th coldest second halfs to November in the past 60 years.

November 2010 had the third coldest second half to November since World War 2; Novembers 1952 and 1993 had a colder second half.

Sure, November has generally been very mild since the exceptional one in 1994. In actual fact since 1998 only two Novembers have seen a CET less than 7*C, which is a figure that is even still slightly above the long term average. In the last 12 years at least, all but two Novembers have come in with a CET between 7.0 and 8.7. Year after year November has just been mild or very mild, although nothing close to the record in 1994. There has been nothing even average and only one cold Nov and one slightly below average.

[damianslaw]

November 2010 had the third coldest second half to November since World War 2; Novembers 1952 and 1993 had a colder second half.

Sure, November has generally been very mild since the exceptional one in 1994. In actual fact since 1998 only two Novembers have seen a CET less than 7*C, which is a figure that is even still slightly above the long term average. In the last 12 years at least, all but two Novembers have come in with a CET between 7.0 and 8.7. Year after year November has just been mild or very mild, although nothing close to the record in 1994. There has been nothing even average and only one cold Nov and one slightly below average.

Yes many recent Novembers have been mild fests in the main. The second half of last year and 1993 and 2005 being exceptions. Some Novembers such as 1998, 2008 brought some cold weather at times but nothing extreme.

March on average tends to be much colder than November - I think people's expectations for cold and snow this November have increased dramatically this year on the back of last years exceptional cold and for some reason seem to expect Nov to deliver more snow and cold than Feb and March.

Nov 2009 was a very mild month in the main - so a mild November by no means heralds a poor winter for cold and snow - quite the opposite I tend to believe.

I never expect much from November - a quiet frosty interlude at some stage will do me fine, snow is always a bonus but I do expect snow on the fells by the second half of the month..

Edited November 4, 2011 by damianslaw

[reef]

Yes many recent Novembers have been mild fests in the main. The second half of last year and 1993 and 2005 being exceptions. Some Novembers such as 1998, 2008 brought some cold weather at times but nothing extreme.

March on average tends to be much colder than November - I think people's expectations for cold and snow this November have increased dramatically this year on the back of last years exceptional cold and for some reason seem to expect Nov to deliver more snow and cold than Feb and March.

Nov 2009 was a very mild month in the main - so a mild November by no means heralds a poor winter for cold and snow - quite the opposite I tend to believe.

I never expect much from November - a quiet frosty interlude at some stage will do me fine, snow is always a bonus but I do expect snow on the fells by the second half of the month..

Here at least, November is about as snowy as April. Before 2010 came and almost doubled the average, November only averaged a day of lying snow every 3 years or so. The statistics are similar for falling snow too (both 1.6 days on average).

The trend of recent mild Novembers has taken a toll on even days of air frosts here though. The 1971-2000 average was 4.7 days but this has fallen dramatically to just 1.6 days in the 1981-2010 figures.

Its still difficult to say where this November will go, but certainly on the models theres no sign of anything cold for now. A CET mean in double figures is quite likely by mid-month as it stands.

[Isolated Frost]

Yes I agree wholeheartedly Damianslaw. Expectations of November are extremely high after last winter's snow and cold in late November, and February and March's expectations are suddenly a hell of a lot smaller after the mildfest in February and the almost snowless March.

February and March usually see much less atlantic domination as sst's are coldest; so despite the fact March should be milder than November, synoptics (and thermal lag) usually mean March is cooler.

April can also be quite snowy and cool of course, with arctic incursions as likely as in March, and twice as likely as in November.

[Isolated Frost]

Here at Durham Uni, it's provisionally 4.4c above our 81-10 average to the 4th (0900-0900 method).

Currently a staggering 10.8c. Maxima 13.7c (+4.3c) and Minima 7.9c (+4.5c).

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes I agree wholeheartedly Damianslaw. Expectations of November are extremely high after last winter's snow and cold in late November, and February and March's expectations are suddenly a hell of a lot smaller after the mildfest in February and the almost snowless March.

February and March usually see much less atlantic domination as sst's are coldest; so despite the fact March should be milder than November, synoptics (and thermal lag) usually mean March is cooler.

April can also be quite snowy and cool of course, with arctic incursions as likely as in March, and twice as likely as in November.

Not here, ive had 4 years in a row without snow in march, 3 years without snow in April, April more of a summer month in my area, your area is great mind you,

[Isolated Frost]

Cannot link as on mobile currently- but it's 12.6c to the 4th! Possibly the high point of the month but we should remain between 10-12c to the 15th at least.

[Optimus Prime]

This November has been identical to last year upto this point here. 2010 also averaged 13.9c to the 5th.

2010 averaged;

First half averaged 9.3c (+1.3c)

Second half averaged 2.8c (-5.3c)

Lowest -6.7c (29th)

Edited November 5, 2011 by Optimus Prime

[BornFromTheVoid]

12.1C to the 6th (12.05)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 9.9C. Minimum for today is 4.7C and maxima should be around 11.5C, so a drop to 11.4C on tomorrows update is quite likely.

After that, the 06z GFS would have CET at

10.8C to the 7th (7.1)

10.8C to the 8th (11.0)

10.8C to the 9th (10.7)

10.9C to the 10th (11.3)

10.9C to the 11th (10.9)

10.9C to the 12th (11.6)

11.1C to the 13th (12.9)

[Isolated Frost]

I'd say about 25% chance of the mildest November ever. This is turning out to be an absolute mildfest!

[reef]

Another target worth watching is that a mean of 9.8C for the remaining days of November would make this Autumn the warmest ever, beating even 2006.

It would be quite something to record the warmest Spring and Autumn in the same year, especially considering the summer in between was the coldest for 23 years!

[Isolated Frost]

Wow... The possibility of the warmest spring and autumn in a 353 year history, in just one year!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another target worth watching is that a mean of 9.8C for the remaining days of November would make this Autumn the warmest ever, beating even 2006.

It would be quite something to record the warmest Spring and Autumn in the same year, especially considering the summer in between was the coldest for 23 years!

And if we finished on 10.2C this month, we'd only need December to come in above 6.8C for warmest year on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

11.4C to the 6th

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 8.0C. Minimum for today is 1.8C (coldest since May 4th) and maxima today should be around 12C, so a drop back to 10.7C tomorrow could well be on the cards.

[TonyH]

Can't see it being as high as some are saying, certainly not 10c, but a good chance above 8c.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Doesn't look like maxima will reach 12C today as I'd thought and could be closer to 10C, so will probably be on 10.6C tomorrow instead.

A real chance of today being the coldest day since mid March.

[Isolated Frost]

Doesn't look like maxima will reach 12C today as I'd thought and could be closer to 10C, so will probably be on 10.6C tomorrow instead.

A real chance of today being the coldest day since mid March.

Which statistically it should be

It is currently 8.1c here, high of about 9c, so definitely nothing interesting. Does the met use a 2100-2100, 0900-0900 or 0000-0000 method? I use 0900-0900.