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November Cet


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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

A pretty big drop to 10.6C to the 7th. Yesterday was 6.1C, making it the coldest day since 19th March.

Today's min is down as 4.5C, so a drop to around 10.2C is likely on tomorrow's update before the temperatures begin to trend up again. Double figures still looking likely by mid-month.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Little chance of the warmest November on record now.

Day 5/6 onward should see an inversion in place which should start knocking us back through next week.

Hard to say if we are still in with a shout of close to or below average (probably not), but i advise everybody to look in the stratosphere thread because it is finally looking like we may be good to go (warming forecast).

While we are never going to reach my prediction of 5.7C, i did suspect that something akin to November 2005 may occur so i will not rule out a very close to average outcome.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

pretty sure METO is 0900-0900

You're right. Met' Office is 0900-0900 g.m.t.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Odds at this stage certainly favour a milder than average month, but too early to call whether it will end up a significantly above average month or not. Next week will see some cooler nights which will knock the CET down a bit. We may see a month of two sharp contrasts with the very mild first half being cancelled out by a cold second half - similiar to 2005 which would bring the CET much closer to the average by the months end, but not clear at this stage whether this will happen.

Autumn 2011 does have a significant chance of being one of the warmest ever, coming on the back of the coldest summer since 1988 and one of the warmest springs on record, once again our seasons do not seem to be playing ball, hoping next year resembles something more seasonal with a cooler spring and autumn and warmer summer.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Looks like the average here for minimum for the first half of November will be in excess of 6.0c above normal with nowhere near close to seeing a frost.

There's no way this month will be less than a tleast 2.0c above normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

I think there will be a big drop in the second half of the month for sure. Potentially finishing somewhere between 7-8C. It does look as though inversions will equal out a fairly warm start.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Looks like the average here for minimum for the first half of November will be in excess of 6.0c above normal with nowhere near close to seeing a frost.

There's no way this month will be less than a tleast 2.0c above normal.

I'm taking that bet.

I believe that we will finish within 1C of average.

Wuld anybody be able to calculate where the CET will be over the next few days.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

I shall go for between 1 and 2 degrees above average as a finishing range.

Edited by Tonyh
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

7.5c-8.5c the likely range for the cet zone i'd say. Too much inversion cold possible and no raging sw'lies, just s'lies/se'lies from a cooling continent with the odd e'ly and hp ridging in.

to the 9th using the 0900-0900 at Durham it's provisionally 8.8c (+2.4c the 81-10 average), average maximum 12.1c (+2.7c), minimum 5.5c (+2.1c). Likely to rise to say 9.5c before hp builds and moves it back down. 8.4c in 1994 was the mildest november at Durham.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Cant see much of inversion happening next week with still too much of a low pressure influence with attendant breezes and generally from the south east about the low just west, hence, looks mild again next week, with little in the way of frost.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

inversions often do feature breezes, so I'm not sure that in inversion necessarily needs calm weather. I've seen a few inversions with fairly strong breezes in my lifetime.

The only issue I would take with regard to the forecast temperatures is that inversions almost always mean ice days at the time of year, but none are shown, that can either mean there will be ice days late next week, or the GFS in particular has the forecast temperature profile totally wrong.

Of course this will mean hugely different things for the CET, if we do see inversion cold then the CET will drop away to around average by months end, however if we see a continuation of mild, then November will come in as one of the mildest on record.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

inversions often do feature breezes, so I'm not sure that in inversion necessarily needs calm weather. I've seen a few inversions with fairly strong breezes in my lifetime.

The only issue I would take with regard to the forecast temperatures is that inversions almost always mean ice days at the time of year, but none are shown, that can either mean there will be ice days late next week, or the GFS in particular has the forecast temperature profile totally wrong.

Of course this will mean hugely different things for the CET, if we do see inversion cold then the CET will drop away to around average by months end, however if we see a continuation of mild, then November will come in as one of the mildest on record.

Not really. Inversions just mean that the air is much cooler at the surface than the upper atmosphere would normally dictate.

The 6th/7th frosts were due to an inversion because despite upper temperatures around 5C, there was cooler air at the surface.

They can produce ice days though, especially under freezing fog.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Hadley is on 10.5C to the 10th. Yesterday was 11.8C.

Today's min is 9.6C, so little change or a slight movement upwards tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

inversions often do feature breezes, so I'm not sure that in inversion necessarily needs calm weather. I've seen a few inversions with fairly strong breezes in my lifetime.

The only issue I would take with regard to the forecast temperatures is that inversions almost always mean ice days at the time of year, but none are shown, that can either mean there will be ice days late next week, or the GFS in particular has the forecast temperature profile totally wrong.

Of course this will mean hugely different things for the CET, if we do see inversion cold then the CET will drop away to around average by months end, however if we see a continuation of mild, then November will come in as one of the mildest on record.

The key is the lack of breeze. The lowest minima always occurs under calm conditions therefore it follows that you need to be under the centre of the winter high. So if you want the coldest conditions with not so cold uppers then you want calm conditions. Any breeze and the layers will mix and temperatures will be higher.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

One question I must ask is, if you have a 1030hpa high with 5c uppers and one with -5c uppers, and you have the same wind, clearness and conditions in both, will the -5c one be much colder, and if so, by how much?

Christmas Day delivered -10c here under a cold hp flow, but under a hp flow with the same clearness and calmness brought from the south, would we have seen similar temps? Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

One question I must ask is, if you have a 1030hpa high with 5c uppers and one with -5c uppers, and you have the same wind, clearness and conditions in both, will the -5c one be much colder, and if so, by how much?

Christmas Day delivered -10c here under a cold hp flow, but under a hp flow with the same clearness and calmness brought from the south, would we have seen similar temps? Thanks.

Would depend really. Obviously we both know that the upper air can effect temperatures on the ground, but I guess it would be a case on how strong the surface cold is, and if it can resist the southerly winds? If there was a strong inversion in place, this would also help to keep the temperatures down, but I wouldn't of thought if we picked up a southerly flow that we would see temperatures of -10C on Christmas day. Especially so since it was foggy on Christmas day here, that helped us stick to about -5C all day. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

I had a feeling we would would still be above 10C mid-month. At the moment I'm pretty happy with my 8.7C with no serious cold on the cards in the near future. I still think there's a big chance of this being among the mildest Novembers on record.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Yeah i would predict a finish of between 8.5c and 9.5c, and judging by the latest GFS i can see it being towards the top of that range. The ECM 0z would produce more in the way of a fall. Either way i seem to have underestimated the warmth yet again for the 3rd month running.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Its worth remembering only 7.8C is required for this Autumn to be the second warmest in the CET series behind 2006. I think thats almost certain at this point.

Hadley has shown a small rise to 10.6C to the 11th on today's update.

Today's min is again 9.6C but maxes have been higher than yesterday, so another rise likely tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Its worth remembering only 7.8C is required for this Autumn to be the second warmest in the CET series behind 2006. I think thats almost certain at this point.

Hadley has shown a small rise to 10.6C to the 11th on today's update.

Today's min is again 9.6C but maxes have been higher than yesterday, so another rise likely tomorrow.

Hope this isn't a bad omen - winter 06 was a mild fest..

Certainly does look like Nov 2011 has the chance of being one of the top 5 mildest ever, with a very good chance of the second mildest ever, but beating 1994 looks a very tall order. It would be quite unprecedented if we were to see the mildest spring and autumn ever in the same year! with the coldest summer for 23 years inbetween coming on the back of the coldest end to Nov ever and the coldest december ever - I blame la nina for all these anomalies - a highly unusual and exceptional year.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

Hope this isn't a bad omen - winter 06 was a mild fest..

Certainly does look like Nov 2011 has the chance of being one of the top 5 mildest ever, with a very good chance of the second mildest ever, but beating 1994 looks a very tall order. It would be quite unprecedented if we were to see the mildest spring and autumn ever in the same year! with the coldest summer for 23 years inbetween coming on the back of the coldest end to Nov ever and the coldest december ever - I blame la nina for all these anomalies - a highly unusual and exceptional year.

In the last year, we have seen a number of records broken, quite a few of which are pretty obscure:

-the 2nd coldest December on record

-the most pear shaped winter on record (the most extreme example in 350+ years of records of a winter having an exceptional early cold spell fading badly into nothing)

-3rd largest increase in CET from December to January on record

-largest increase in CET from December to February on record

-warmest winter on record to contain a sub zero month

-warmest April on record

-warmest spring on record

-coolest summer for 23 years (and first summer in the cool category (sub 15*C) since 1993

-8th warmest October on record

-warmest spell on record in late September / early October

-Probably one of the warmest Novembers on record

and, by the looks of it, the 2nd warmest autumn on record

Another record that also looks to be up for grabs, is that 2011 looks set to become the warmest year on record to contain a summer in the cool category (CET below 15*C). The record for the previous warmest year on record to contain a cool summer overall is held by 1948; that year the summer CET was 14.8*C and the year finished at 10.01*C overall.

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In the last year, we have seen a number of records broken, quite a few of which are pretty obscure:

-the 2nd coldest December on record

-the most pear shaped winter on record (the most extreme example in 350+ years of records of a winter having an exceptional early cold spell fading badly into nothing)

-3rd largest increase in CET from December to January on record

-largest increase in CET from December to February on record

-warmest winter on record to contain a sub zero month

-warmest April on record

-warmest spring on record

-coolest summer for 23 years (and first summer in the cool category (sub 15*C) since 1993

-8th warmest October on record

-warmest spell on record in late September / early October

-Probably one of the warmest Novembers on record

and, by the looks of it, the 2nd warmest autumn on record

Another record that also looks to be up for grabs, is that 2011 looks set to become the warmest year on record to contain a summer in the cool category (CET below 15*C). The record for the previous warmest year on record to contain a cool summer overall is held by 1948; that year the summer CET was 14.8*C and the year finished at 10.01*C overall.

Yes some of those are obscure records - if you start including second or eighth ranked months rather than the actual coldest or warmest then every month is a record breaker.

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