Model Output Discussion - Late October Onwards

[kold weather]

Well we are now getting towards the back-end of October and attention is no doubt starting to move towards the upcoming winter months but we will still have the rest of October to get through first!

So where will the next couple of weeks weather take us?

This is the thread to discuss about what the models are showing. Keep on topic people!

[summer blizzard]

A front moving north on sunday and then again wednesday according to Michael Fish, so a fairly cloudy and perhaps wet week.

[scotty_boy_winter]

I think we are seeing the building blocks to a met office anticipated Atlantic dominated winter

[ITSY]

I'm torn bout that atm - high pressure over scandi, europe and greenland looking dominant for the next couple of weeks at least - but not cold though, certainly in agreement there.

[rug]

Am confused , where are the met forecasting an Atlantic dominated winter ?

[Liam J]

Am confused , where are the met forecasting an Atlantic dominated winter ?

Only the 30 day outlook, here you go http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Meto don't issue long range winter forecasts any longer, however they did hit out at certain forecasters on certain sites that have issued forcasts claiming we are in for a very cold and snowy winter explaining that the Meto aren't expecting anything like what they were predicting. Take from that what you will

Back on topic now

Edited October 20, 2011 by Liam J

[scotty_boy_winter]

They aren't forecasting anything and also won't do. A close family friend of mine is a senior forecaster (can't mention names) the general "consensus and opinion" is wet and windy will be the dominant theme from what I was told Monday night at his house

Am confused , where are the met forecasting an Atlantic dominated winter ?

[Aaron]

They aren't forecasting anything and also won't do. A close family friend of mine is a senior forecaster (can't mention names) the general "consensus and opinion" is wet and windy will be the dominant theme from what I was told Monday night at his house

Hm.. that's different to what you told me last night.

[rug]

Am confused again. Thought was established that what happens six weeks before winter starts has no bearing on the coming season. Tought November was supposed to be the month where the Atlantic dominates , is not what the models predicting just normal November weather, no disrespect to your met office friend but when was the last time the met got a long-range forecast correct ?

[Robbie Garrett]

Well let's hope the MetOffice are right with their forecast as a lot of people wont be happy if we get wiped by Blizzards.

[scotty_boy_winter]

It's not about what's right and wrong. It could be wrong and I hope it is...im a cold and snow lover. I'm just giving you a heads up on what our countries professionals opinion is. (again not their forecast) their opinion was in the region of 80-90 per cent confident. Doesn't meant it will be correct however of course but it's good info to know considering their expertise

Am confused again. Thought was established that what happens six weeks before winter starts has no bearing on the coming season. Tought November was supposed to be the month where the Atlantic dominates , is not what the models predicting just normal November weather, no disrespect to your met office friend but when was the last time the met got a long-range forecast correct ?

[ZONE 51]

GFS 18z - becoming warmer in the south over the weekend

low pressure system winding its self up out to the west by weekend

could see some thundery rain, into monday..

Edited October 20, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Robbie Garrett]

5th November looks dry according to the Models, high pressure keeping the low to the far west at bay, still to early for anyone to say if we will get an early blast...

[ZONE 51]

5th November looks dry according to the Models..

thread for that soon!

dry?

GFS - 18z

The low top left moves in across Scotland, the high pressure to the south possibly nudging up for the south but to far out to be sure, GFS 18z shows rainfall at this stage

Edited October 21, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[summer blizzard]

GFS18z was wierd.

It has heights high over Greenland and yet keeps us in a constant SW flow and then transfers heights to Scandinavia with a proper attempt.

A nice run and one that backs the GFS cold shot for early November always being shown, but one that i doubt will come to fruition.

[ZONE 51]

GFS - 18z

has a large low pressure system moving in late weekend,

possibly thundery rain as i mentioned before, something to keep a watch on,

at the weekend it feels warmer in the south and milder elsewhere maybe

Edited October 21, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Jason T]

Well i think we are right in no mans land based on on current output,Cold to the north,warm to south,Hard to predict any outcome at the moment. All to play for.

Edited October 21, 2011 by silver line

[mushymanrob]

huh... another brilliant run IF it was summer! the 00z gfs has a succession of southerlies breaking down before they return.. at least its looking like we might be getting some rain in the areas most in need into next week.

[snowblizzard]

Definitely a different autumn weather pattern compared to the last 2-3 years! Probably still too early to predict what will actually happen during late November & December. I don't take much notice of these long range predictions, nobody really knows what's going to happen and most are inaccurate.

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here’s my take on the 00zs today from GFS, UKMO and ECM.

GFS this morning shows freshening SW then South winds over the next few days as Low pressure falls to the West of the UK and stays High over Continental Europe. The airflow will drag warm air North over the UK over the weekend with some impressive temperatures for late October offset though by the strength of the wind. Rain will reach Western areas over the weekend but it’s not until Tuesday when it makes it move NE over all of the UK. Thereafter the general pattern remains unchanged with Low pressure to the West and High to the East maintaining a mild or very mild Southerly flow over Britain with rain at times, chiefly in the West with some longer drier spells in the East.

The London Ensembles show 850’s to be above the long term mean towards the second half of the run with the operational run on the warm side of the pack later too. Rain at times is shown from the 25th. In Aberdeen a mild spell is shown today with the mean a couple of degrees above the long term mean from a week’s time. The operational was a marked warm outlier though from the 29th with some rain at times.

UKMO shows the same broad pattern of Low pressure to the West and High pressure over Europe giving increasingly windy weather as we move towards Sunday and Monday. The airflow has a warm source so temperatures will be above normal from tomorrow especially in the East. Rain would approach the West by Sunday and extend to other areas later with brighter, less windy and less mild conditions bringing a mix of sunshine and showers by midweek.

ECM this morning also follows the same route although with Low pressure closer in to the SW by Tuesday a spell of very wet and windy weather looks possible in Southern and Western areas early next week. Before we get there though the weekend for many areas will be OK with some unseasonably mild air once more flooding North over England, most felt in the east. By midweek next week and at the end of the run the weather remains basically unsettled with further Low pressure either near to the UK and generally still to the West giving rain at times with less mild conditions.

In Summary today the weather looks like remaining basically mild with rain and strong winds at times. The worst of the rain looks like remaining in the West while the East sees the best of drier and brighter conditions.

[chionomaniac]

Overnight GFS and ECM seem bang on line with an Iceland /Atlantic trough dominated scenario that the background teleconnections are suggesting.

[ribster]

Am confused again. Thought was established that what happens six weeks before winter starts has no bearing on the coming season. Tought November was supposed to be the month where the Atlantic dominates , is not what the models predicting just normal November weather, no disrespect to your met office friend but when was the last time the met got a long-range forecast correct ?

Indeed, some want to have it both ways, and seeing as the 30 day outlook must only take us to the 21st November, not sure what it has to do with winter. As you say, they didn't see last Nov/Dec coming, not to mention the bbq summer debacle the other year (last year?). In the email from the MET Office which I referred to in the other thread, as well as saying that sometimes the state of the atmosphere today effects events a few weeks down the line, other times it has no bearing at all. He also said (James Vincent Smith) that the current situation is a good example of where the weather cannot decide where it wants to go, with the various models throwing up different scenarios, and that it would be interesting to see how it sorts itself out.

Edited October 21, 2011 by ribster

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z shows a battle (mostly in FI) between the developing blocking anticyclone to the eastnortheast of the uk and atlantic depressions, the eastern high also gets a helping hand from the azores high at one point and it seems the balance of power is with the anticylone as low pressure tends to affect western areas most and later next week the high pressure begins to take over. This ultimately ends up in a kind of stalemate but it has to be said that the blocking high to the east looks like becoming a powerful feature and really puts a major hurdle in the way of atlantic domination through november.

[Frosty.]

huh... another brilliant run IF it was summer! the 00z gfs has a succession of southerlies breaking down before they return.. at least its looking like we might be getting some rain in the areas most in need into next week.

Yes it does look like becoming much warmer with 18 & 19c this weekend and then remaining very mild through at least the first half of next week with fresh to strong S'ly winds which are always a warm direction, it may then turn a little cooler as winds ease and back more SE'ly with the east tending to dry up but the west may have to wait a little longer before the azores high helps the high to the east but it looks to me as though november could be a fairly mild and quiet month with high pressure in control but no cold air to tap into..hope i'm wrong.

[ITSY]

I agree that this European block really questions the logic of predicting an Atlantic dominated winter - but then as people have said, it is only october. its wierd though - its too south for cold and not in the right place for proper warmth. I think the eventual positionning of this euro block will decide our november weather...