Model Output Discussion - Late October Onwards

[Frosty.]

I agree that this European block really questions the logic of predicting an Atlantic dominated winter - but then as people have said, it is only october. its wierd though - its too south for cold and not in the right place for proper warmth. I think the eventual positionning of this euro block will decide our november weather...

I would say the way the models are currently shaping up, november will be a mainly benign and mild month with little or no frost and no chance of any snow but that is only based on the output today.

[bobbydog]

as it stands at the moment, the models are showing that euro high to be stuck in place for now. too far south for any sign of wintryness for us, sending the atlantic weather up and over us.

but lets not forget, weather patterns do not persist indefinitely and sooner or later, something has to give as other influences take effect.

[Isolated Frost]

Was a cold, frosty start across much of Central Europe today as that HP moves steadily east. Very wet across the Balkans. Low positioned just north of Iceland.

[Milhouse]

If it was the middle of winter and we had southerlies like what the GFS 6z is showing then we would probably be seeing maxes of 3-7c. As its the end of october we can still draw a little warmth up from that direction so i'd predict maxes in the low to possible the mid teens.

[Isolated Frost]

If it was the middle of winter and we had southerlies like what the GFS 6z is showing then we would probably be seeing maxes of 3-7c. As its the end of october we can still draw a little warmth up from that direction so i'd predict maxes in the low to possible the mid teens.

Indeedy - to the south, very pleasant and warm weather, but to the south east it's increasingly much cooler, especially after the cooler recent spell, and the trough is sucking up cool air before it being modified.

I'd expect generally 14-17c in the south under a southerly flow, but slightly less when that trough has increasing influence, and maybe lower with the south easterly role. Clear nights from the SE will be cool, but again southerlies would deliver average-mild nights even under clearer skies.

[Frosty.]

Was a cold, frosty start across much of Central Europe today as that HP moves steadily east. Very wet across the Balkans. Low positioned just north of Iceland.

After the hot spell earlier this month and the warm spell coming up, october looks like recording a high CET , probably one of the warmest octobers for many years as even when we have a had a cooler blip..it's only been back to the seasonal average, a very mild or warm month is pretty much nailed on with a very mild week ahead with no frost. The models show a battle for dominance in the next few weeks between high pressure across northeast europe and a sluggish atlantic with lows mainly going up the western side of the BI.

[SP1986]

It does look a little like a Bartlett high situation, pumping up the southerlies in the near time. Although if it is a Bartlett it's very southeasterly orientated, I usually see Bartlett Highs for the SWly influence.

[Isolated Frost]

It does look a little like a Bartlett high situation, pumping up the southerlies in the near time. Although if it is a Bartlett it's very southeasterly orientated, I usually see Bartlett Highs for the SWly influence.

Yes, in the winter, this synoptic setup expected would generally give the highest temperatures possible. High to the east n-s orientated, low to the west also n-s orientated. Cooler with a SEly influence, and very mild with the Sly/SWly flow. Right now it looks generally Sly dominated, to end October - and temperatures should stay about 1-3c above the October norm for the last week.

[Frosty.]

Hopefully the dreaded B word won't be used much in the next 4 month, i'm thinking more scandi/russsian high with depressions pushing north across western areas before filling.. then euro high mixed with azores high and a bit of low pressure in the next 2-3 weeks.

[November13]

Yes not looking good at all. Apart from the first 4 days of this week I expect above average October temps in Scotland. Sitting at :10.06c average for month so far and historic average is 10c...Next 10 days temps 11 and 12c would give an average for the month of roughly 10.8c. So the scaremongering about the next ice age and snow in October was somewhat Naive! I see that another internet weather provider has opted for a warmer than average winter.

[Frosty.]

I see that another internet weather provider has opted for a warmer than average winter.

the cpc forecasts indicate a very mild winter so i'm not surprised by that..even with the low solar activity blah blah.

One feature that has not had much mention is just how windy the next week or more is looking, it will become very windy with SE'ly gales next week, especially across northeast britain but more cyclonic winds across southwest uk.

[Optimus Prime]

the cpc forecasts indicate a very mild winter so i'm not surprised by that..even with the low solar activity blah blah.

Evidence?

[Bogman]

7/10 days ago everyone was creaming themselves over a cold plunge around about now, but here we are sat on the cusp of another mild spell for many.

Therefore, imo, (as a novice here, but having been an avid lurker here and on other weather forums), it should be almost neigh on impossible to predict the weather a fortnight away, as almost anything can happen, as the example above.

In my simplistic world, I'll wait and see what pans out, rather than trying to second guess what will happen, as mother n ature is a very fickle woman.

[Frosty.]

Evidence?

have a butchers yourself, it looks very mild despite the low solar activity and la nina which is again the driver as last winter, usa looks very cold again but this december is looking a lot milder than last year but is that such a surprise?

[Isolated Frost]

You can see it's a very cool afternoon across Central Europe under that hp cell - highs of 4c in southern Germany. Warm/mild across Italy, SE Europe, Spain and Portugal, and Britain. Very rainy over Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia, aswell as northwest Romania and southwest Ukraine. Some showery outbreaks across northwest Russia, northern Scandinavia, and another showery current outlook over parts of Scotland and southern Norway.

Interesting synoptic pattern to flow through the next few days, and that low to the nw of the image is important - to see if it can penetrate into the block.

[nick sussex]

have a butchers yourself, it looks very mild despite the low solar activity and la nina which is again the driver as last winter, usa looks very cold again but this december is looking a lot milder than last year but is that such a surprise?

Is that the same CPC which also forecast below average temps down here in sw France for last January and February and we ended up with the total opposite with one of the mildest Jan/Febs for years!

I find the CPC to be utter rubbish in all honesty and wouldn't worry about any of their outlandish forecasts.

Most probably given the La Nina and the expectations for the ne USA with alot of troughing bringing colder temps there then we'll end up on the cold side of the downstream amplification at times so it might still be okay.

Again though we're talking way into the future and this is the problem with alot of LRF's.

[November13]

The outputs for the next 10 -15 days are mild. Usually there is a blip of cold contained within the models even if the general pattern is mild. But on the current models 8-9 c is as cold as it will be during the day into early November. So I think it is safe to say we will have to wait until after the first week in November beyond the models to see if the pattern changes. There is no point in having models and commenting on them if people only choose to use them for the good news. We have to accept the facts good and bad.Having said that who knows what mid November will bring!

[wolvesfan]

hi all,followed this thread for a while now and find the posts fascinating,i'm a little bit suprised at the moment how impatiant people seem to be getting at the models lack of cold synoptics,it's as if we are entering mid march and winter is behind us and also i cant understand why people are looking for cold so early, we are after all only in october and last years extreme cold snap surely wont replicate this year so early again.i might not know a great deal but one thing i've learnt fast is that that the models can and do change extremly quickly.

[summer blizzard]

GFS12z will likely be a complete mild outlier because it collapases the high within days.

Having taken a look at the ECWMF and GEM 0z runs along with the GFS6z, it seems that the models have pushed back the Atlantic again and infact show signs that the high could be winning as we approach day 10.

[Cheshire Freeze]

A very nice deep FI tonight.....the beast from the east lurks and even though it's thwarted and doesn't make it to our shores, it's nice to see.

Edited October 21, 2011 by CreweCold

[cyclonic happiness]

A very nice deep FI tonight.....the beast from the east lurks and even though it's thwarted and doesn't make it to our shores, it's nice to see.

Nice to see all those warm 850's right over the arctic, this is the sort of building block that I've been looking for.

[lorenzo]

I find the CPC to be utter rubbish in all honesty and wouldn't worry about any of their outlandish forecasts.

Most probably given the La Nina and the expectations for the ne USA with alot of troughing bringing colder temps there then we'll end up on the cold side of the downstream amplification at times so it might still be okay.

Again though we're talking way into the future and this is the problem with alot of LRF's.

A very nice deep FI tonight.....the beast from the east lurks and even though it's thwarted and doesn't make it to our shores, it's nice to see.

Nick loving your candour regarding the CPC output, I agree re: LRF work. Cracking chart CC - knocking at the door... before it gets there the GFS repeats until fade low after low exiting Greenland /Iceland firing them at us from the NW.

[nick sussex]

Nick loving your candour regarding the CPC output, I agree re: LRF work. Cracking chart CC - knocking at the door... before it gets there the GFS repeats until fade low after low exiting Greenland /Iceland firing them at us from the NW.

Thanks

Well it had to be said regarding the CPC, last year it was dire and I'd have more faith consulting the tea leaves!

Regarding that close but no cigar chart, as we saw last year and in many previous winters no matter how good the block is to the east it rarely manages to get the cold far enough west and the snow train often derails in western Germany!

In terms of LRF's I appreciate the work people do in putting them together but overall it's incredibly difficult to decide which teleconnection is the tipping point regarding a certain pattern.

[ANYWEATHER]

The outlook right to the realms of Fantasy, [T+240 ]from both the ecm and gfs is that the Uk will be dominated by Low pressure often seated to the west or SouthWest of the Uk. That does mean one thing ,Mild or even average temperatures, rain and strong winds not just exclusively for the West will be pushed by a strong jet stream across the Nation. The outlook for anything resembling cold conditions is not good , but we are still very early on in the season and what we are looking at is a "normal Ocober"

[Paul]

The CFS is certainly buying into the less settled, milder outlook and has backed right away from the colder November it'd been showing very regularly up to the last couple of weeks..