Model Output Discussion - Late October Onwards

[johnholmes]

I read the post, so not sure why you repeated it?

[Thundery wintry showers]

MJO forecasts suggest a slow shift from phase 5 towards phases 6-7 as we head towards mid-November, though we do need some caution associated with this because the GFS-based ones are often over-progressive. The composites for phase 5 show a strong trough in the mid-Atlantic but those for 6 and 7 show generally high pressure in the vicinity of the British Isles and little or no troughing in the mid-Atlantic. The NOAA long-range projections have the trough stubbornly stuck in the mid-Atlantic at days 10-14.

Taking all of this together, I don't think we are likely to see any major pattern change anytime soon, but the trend as we head through November may well be towards more of a "continental" influence with the high pressure to the east and north-east slowly extending westwards. However, unless central Europe picks up one or two northerly or easterly outbreaks, a repeat of the snowy easterly of the 20th-22nd November 1993 looks unlikely, with cold dry weather, sunshine and frosts in the west and cloud in the east a rather more likely result.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I read the post, so not sure why you repeated it?

Because Nick elaborated on the change that thinks may occur (after reading the met office cryptic forecast)

I believe this is what you asked? Believing him to just be on a WUM.

[nick sussex]

what change Nick and Steve or are you both on a wind-up mission?

Well that UKMO further outlook could not come about with the same placement of the high pressure.

That outlook suggests high pressure orientated more nw/se with lower heights developing se towards Iberia,.

I'm not saying that the Thames will freeze over just that there maybe some changes later on!

[johnholmes]

thanks for the replies Nick and R-R

[kold weather]

Right guys and girls, new thread is here....starting to get to the time of year where the model output threads start to pick up whenever there is a hint of cold.