Model Output Discussion - Late October Onwards

[Liam J]

The CFS is certainly buying into the less settled, milder outlook and has backed right away from the colder November it'd been showing very regularly up to the last couple of weeks..

Yes and looking at the raw output on the CFS November is looking potentially stormy and wet with the Atlantic in control.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Yes and looking at the raw output on the CFS November is looking potentially stormy and wet with the Atlantic in control.

If thats the case then that sounds like a typical November. If the winter is expected to be as dry as many believe then this could be a blessing in disguise for the rain starved east

[Aaron]

I've heard the words wet and stormy a lot this year.. but they never materialise .

[cyclonic happiness]

I've heard the words wet and stormy a lot this year.. but they never materialise .

I agree!

We have been fooled time and time again into thinking that this summer has been dominated by the Atlantic, well I live in the midlands and have seem precious little evidence of the Atlantic.

We've had only around 7-10 rain event in the last 10 months and it looks like staying that way for here at least.

In years gone by the Atlantic had no trouble whatsoever at sending rain across our region, what's changed? no rain is still showing for us here.

[Liam J]

I've heard the words wet and stormy a lot this year.. but they never materialise .

I suppose that depends on where you live. Over the last 5 weeks we have had 4 seperate stormy spells up here with damage on two occasions from severe gales, Monday 17th being the worse with some significant wind damage in places, already much more active at this stage than last autumn and also the lakes up here are very high indeed.

Edited October 21, 2011 by Liam J

[Gibby]

Good evening. Somewhat late tonight and a reminder that as usual there will be no report from me Saturday morning here’s my take on the 12zs tonight from GFS, UKMO and ECM.

GFS tonight shows pressure falling from the West over the weekend. The resulting Southerly flow would strengthen and warm up with the East seeing some bright and above average temperatures over Sunday and Monday though this would be offset by some strong winds. Rain reaching the West on Sunday moves slowly east and becomes invigorated by a deep Low moving North near the West coast Monday and Tuesday. As we move through next week winds decrease temporarily with less in the way of rain before in FI things become stormy once more as deep Low pressure moves in from the West. A complex and fast changing synoptic setup transpires then at the end of FI with stormy weather relinquishing to a calmer spell quickly towards the end of the run. Temperatures then look to fall in the back half of the run.

The London Ensembles tonight paint a mild picture for the foreseeable with temperatures above normal on average from the 28th with some rain at times from the 25th. The operational was a cold outlier from the 2nd-5th Nov. In Aberdeen too a milder than average group is shown tonight.

UKMO shows a warm weekend with some sunny spells in the East though the benefits would be offset by a strengthening Southerly flow. Further West and cloud and patchy rain seems more likely tomorrow with heavy and widespread rainfall likely from Monday into Tuesday. As we move through the midweek period pressure recovers yet again, this time from the NE with fine and fairly quiet conditions developing by Thursday and it would become less mild.

ECM tonight follows the UKMO route though a little slower in recovering pressure next week. In any event the improvement is short-lived as further vigorous Low pressure areas develop to the West again by the runs end. Throughout pressure is High to the East with a Southerly aspect to the wind meaning temperatures stay reasonable for most of the time with rain at times for many too.

In Summary tonight a wet spell is still likely early next week. The Euros want to build pressure back over us later next week and so does GFS to a lesser degree. It’s then shown to just be a matter of time before further Atlantic Low pressure buffers up against the West of Britain again while for all of the time pressure remains High over Europe. Throughout the next week to 10 days or longer cold weather looks unlikely anywhere in the UK.

[cyclonic happiness]

I suppose that depends on where you live. Over the last 5 weeks we have had 4 seperate stormy spells up here with damage on two occasions from severe gales, Monday 17th being the worse with some significant wind damage in places, already much more active at this stage than last autumn and also the lakes up here are very high indeed.

And this end of the country, my local river, the River Sowe, has dried up completley.

We really need to be looking for rain

[Costa Del Fal]

Some quite impatient people Im seeing in here. Its October!!! The last couple of years are leading some to be impatient due to their early cold starts. November actually looks like standard, mild and wet fare. The CFS is keen on very little cold until after Christmas. There is actually a chance us in the South may surpass a year since the last snow!

However there will always be deviations to the overall pattern. January and February do look increasingly likely to be the cold and snowy part of the winter this season. Rather a reversal to last year!

[Liam J]

And this end of the country, my local river, the River Sowe, has dried up completley.

We really need to be looking for rain

A bit harsh that, no water in it at all?

[Geordiesnow]

Some quite impatient people Im seeing in here. Its October!!! The last couple of years are leading some to be impatient due to their early cold starts. November actually looks like standard, mild and wet fare. The CFS is keen on very little cold until after Christmas. There is actually a chance us in the South may surpass a year since the last snow!

However there will always be deviations to the overall pattern. January and February do look increasingly likely to be the cold and snowy part of the winter this season. Rather a reversal to last year!

Wait until December and the charts are showing, then you will feel like ripping your hair out!

Some interesting weather to some extent regarding wind and the potential for some quite heavy rain for some western areas, risk of a bit of flooding in some parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland could be likely. Coupled with strong winds, it will feel quite autuminal one would of thought although in terms of temperatures, they do look mild and the dewpoints will be mild so despite the wind and rain, I don't think it will feel cool/cold although i bet some forecasters will say that.

Elsewhere, the weekend looks more sunnier and it will feel warm despite the wind, It looks like it will turn cloudier with outbreaks of rain coming up from the south, bit of a forecaster's nightmare this is as positioning could change where the rainfall will end up.

Models have the broad picture of strong lows to the South and West of the UK with a large high over scandi which in turn leaves the UK under a mild/very mild southerly flow but positioning and strength of the lows are a bit more uncertain the longer into the timeframe you go.

[wimblettben]

Considering the Met Office have issued a weather watch for heavy rain in the Southwest next Monday then it would seem to me that sooner or later we will get our rain that we desperately need.

Looking back on my records it looks like I have only managed to recieve about 17mm of rain so far this month, which is shocking especially considering that this is in the Southwest where we are supposed to get large amounts of rainfall at this time of year!

Anyway the models show Atlantic based weather for next week and currently the future isn't looking good for cold or frosts into November. But of coarse this could change.

Edited October 21, 2011 by wimblettben

[chionomaniac]

The CFS is certainly buying into the less settled, milder outlook and has backed right away from the colder November it'd been showing very regularly up to the last couple of weeks..

Is this a weekly forecast Paul? Just interested as that this again fits in well with all the other teleconnections. For the first time this autumn confidence for November is increasing and any repeat of last years November looks unlikely presently.

[Snowmad79]

Is this a weekly forecast Paul? Just interested as that this again fits in well with all the other teleconnections. For the first time this autumn confidence for November is increasing and any repeat of last years November looks unlikely presently.

Really, i thought it was too early to make any judgments ? Dont suppose you fancy giving us noobs a run down of the teleconnections and a comparison to this time last year ? Would be an interested read.

[chionomaniac]

Really, i thought it was too early to make any judgments ? Dont suppose you fancy giving us noobs a run down of the teleconnections and a comparison to this time last year ? Would be an interested read.

It's not too early to make an educated guess regarding the first half of November when one looks at the MJO forecasts and stratospheric profile. Any change in this would have to come in very soon and the stratospheric 10 day forecasts certainly don't suggest that blocking will be significant into November ( to the north west ) and through next month. Very different to last year in that respect. To repeat, Atlantic / Iceland trough with a strengthening polar vortex through November the likely scenario presently.

Edited October 21, 2011 by chionomaniac

[summer blizzard]

GFS18z is interesting. It shifts the high completely and by 9 has a northerly over the UK, perhaps the most progressive run in the past week.

Into FI and it looks settled although GFS develops a monster 940mb low.

Edited October 21, 2011 by summer blizzard

[scotty_boy_winter]

I think you are bang in the money there! The ozone levels for one will only strengthen the vortex November and into a lot of December in my eyes for now

It's not too early to make an educated guess regarding the first half of November when one looks at the MJO forecasts and stratospheric profile. Any change in this would have to come in very soon and the stratospheric 10 day forecasts certainly don't suggest that blocking will be significant into November ( to the north west ) and through next month. Very different to last year in that respect. To repeat, Atlantic / Iceland trough with a strengthening polar vortex through November the likely scenario presently.

[mushymanrob]

And this end of the country, my local river, the River Sowe, has dried up completley.

We really need to be looking for rain

absolutely.... i know eastern areas are very dry (where i metal detect), and its a worry. forget looking for blocked weather, what some areas desperately need is rain, and lots of it. unfortunately the gfs 00z has moved away from a low dominated outlook to a high dominated one, where high pressure is never far away from us. so its looking predominantly dry going off the 00z (not seen others). bad news.

[picog]

absolutely.... i know eastern areas are very dry (where i metal detect), and its a worry. forget looking for blocked weather, what some areas desperately need is rain, and lots of it. unfortunately the gfs 00z has moved away from a low dominated outlook to a high dominated one, where high pressure is never far away from us. so its looking predominantly dry going off the 00z (not seen others). bad news.

Oh No! What about ch's forecast for an Atlantic dominated early November (my interpretation of that is wet and windy). Even though I loathe the rain and love the cold, I know we need a wet winter to replenish the ground water.

[Snowmad79]

Thats where the GFS and ECM differ. At T144 ownwards the GFS wants to biuld HP over the UK but ECM wants LP digging in and where as the GFS desperately trys to hang on to the blocking high to the E & NE, the ecm wants to demolish it completely allowing for LP to dig south into Scandi and Russia.

To be frank keeping HP to our imediate NE is a risky pattern. Not just because eastern parts can see less in the way of ppn but also theres more chance of west being stuck on the grizzly side with the atlantic so would rather see that HP gone from that position as seen on the ECM 00z.

PS. Netweather ECM viewer is stuck again (on Fiday 00z) cheers.

Edited October 22, 2011 by Snowmad79

[wolvesfan]

Hi all,i've been watching the high pressure currently building to our east on the last few gfs runs,it might seem like a silly question but does anyone think it could retrogress slightly more than is being shown,the 00z run shows it a lot further west than the 18z at around T144.low pressure last autumn seemed to loose a lot of energy when coming up against the high, or will the high drift into europe.thanks.

[ANYWEATHER]

absolutely.... i know eastern areas are very dry (where i metal detect), and its a worry. forget looking for blocked weather, what some areas desperately need is rain, and lots of it. unfortunately the gfs 00z has moved away from a low dominated outlook to a high dominated one, where high pressure is never far away from us. so its looking predominantly dry going off the 00z (not seen others). bad news.

I think we are looking at a "spoof" run from the 00z gfs to be honest. Its completely out of Kilter from its recent outputs and shows a rather settled ,benign spell with high pressure dominating, which I think is "incorrect "given the ecms output too out to t+240 which shows low pressure dominating, I think we will see a completely different and more unsettled outlook from the gfs following runs!!

[Liam J]

Hi all,i've been watching the high pressure currently building to our east on the last few gfs runs,it might seem like a silly question but does anyone think it could retrogress slightly more than is being shown,the 00z run shows it a lot further west than the 18z at around T144.low pressure last autumn seemed to loose a lot of energy when coming up against the high, or will the high drift into europe.thanks.

This is only one run which has shown the High push west towards us, it may just be a temporary blip in proceedings as the GFS has been keen to keep us under the control of Atlantic Low pressure systems. than again it may be on to something, but with no support from the other main models I would wait for the next run to see if the GFS can be consistant with the 00z output, but the GFS does have a habit sometimes of radical changes from run to run the further you go past the reliable time frame.

As others have mentioned many places need the rain right now and quite desperately!

Edited October 22, 2011 by Liam J

[phil nw.]

Clear difference berween GFS and ECM when looking at the mean Heights days 8-10.

ECM keeps the Atlantic trough close where GFS builds pressure nearer to the the UK.

Either way the milder flow continues off the Atlantic with some wet weather for Western and Northern districts in particular and temperatures remaining on the mild side.

Edited October 22, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[chionomaniac]

Clear difference berween GFS and ECM when looking at the mean Heights days 8-10.

ECM keeps the Atlantic trough close where GFS builds pressure nearer to the the UK.

Either way the milder flow continues off the Atlantic with some wet weather for Western and Northern districts in particular and temperatures remaining on the mild side.

The ECM is more in line with what I would expect here. The latest (06Z) GFS run doesn't appear to agree with the mean heights and GFS FI starts around the 27th.

[Frosty.]

Yes and looking at the raw output on the CFS November is looking potentially stormy and wet with the Atlantic in control.

If that happens then at least there will be some brief incursions of polar maritime or even the occasional 24hr arctic plunge. The Gfs 06z shows most of next week being unsettled with rain at times (especially in the west with a risk of local flooding) and temps a little above average, windy at first but then breezy at most, improving picture later next week from the southeast as a ridge builds across southern britain from the main european anticyclone and southern britain looks mainly settled for the rest of the run, just a cooler blip as a low carves southeastwards into scandinavia with a brief NW'ly for the uk before the azores/atlantic high moves in from the west making the south very settled but the north having more unsettled atlantic weather, by the end of the run, all areas look fine with average temps but a cold plunge into scandinavia but no sign of any cold snaps for the BI.