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Backtrack's Winter Forecast 2011-2012


Backtrack

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Backtrack's winter forecast 2011

Hi everyone. This forecast has been created from the trends and patterns of numerous model outputs ranging from the GFS,ECM,CFS and a couple of other factors too. Please don't slate my forecast if it does not show what you would like to hear, I have put a lot of hard work into creating the forecast and think you will find it fairly accurate up until January at the least. At this stage confidence falls drastically, with January looking likely to go either way at this stage.

My confidence in February is surprisingly high, not just based on the CFS anomaly charts' trends, but also due to the fact that I believe we are long over due a cool February. And whilst weather doesn't follow a set of rules, I certainly cannot see this month being mild at the very least.

Hope you enjoy reading it, sure I'm an amateur and you will find that RJF's forecast and BFTP's (when he does his) forecasts are likely to be much better, but hey, it's all in good fun!

Also, on a side note, I am a massive coldie fan, and writing the forecast for the first 2 months was painful for me, not only am I confident in their accuracy, but I am unfortunately expecting little cold for Western areas for some time. I've spoiled it enough. Good luck. smile.png

October:

21-30th - This period is likely to be mild and windy at times with the best of any brightness in the East, with the West seeing cloudier conditions with rain, heavy at times. Temperatures remaining around average for the time of year, perhaps slightly above average at times in the far South.

November:

1st - 10th - Numerous outputs, trends and patterns point to a North/South split during the first third of the month. It's looking very likely that it's going to be very average in the North, day time temperatures hitting 8-10C, but above average in the South, temperatures hitting 13-16C. Precipitation wise, the first start of the month looks like being very wet and unsettled, perhaps making up for the drought in place in Eastern areas. An Atlantic dominated first third, night time temperatures unlikely to bring any frosts at all away from the coldest of hollows.

10th - 20th - This period will follow the same theme as the first third for a time at least, with temperatures being pleasant enough in the South for T-shirts to be worn. In the North though, it's again very average for the time of year until the mid month point at least. Temperatures again 8-10C, 13-15C in the South. It's the mid month point that may bring some interest to you with the first frosts of the month likely, temperatures still recovering to average by day. This third is likely to be the windiest with frequent gales, especially in the West.

20th - 30th - Another dissapointingly average period with little in the way of Winter to be shown just yet. Temperatures again remaining oh so average, although temperatures may be down a little way at least, 5-9C in the North, 10-13C in the South. Rainfall should be around average for the time of year, as should sunshine amounts. A cold spell is likely around the end of the month (The very end of the month) giving the first low level snow to Northern & Eastern areas, this may also mark the start of the Cairngorm skiing season. Frosts are also likely towards the end of the month, but Western and Southern areas are going to have to wait to see anything remotely in the way of snow.

CET - 7.7C

December:

The first third of December will be dominated by a North Westerly flow, bringing Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and Western England their first snows of the season. The cold spell will not be anything remarkable with temperatures still managing to climb to 2-5C during the day, any lying snow is likely to be short lived, with hail showers becoming a very dominant feature for Western areas during the period.

The second third is likely to me average with little snow away from the highlands. Rainfall and sunshine amounts are looking around average, rainfall slightly above.

The Christmas period is a great day to feel the full effects of Winter as Santa makes his way down your chimney to make many boys and girls happy. Unfortunately santa may melt in England, as there is likely to be no snow away from the hills. For Northern Scotland, a white Christmas is looking likely with snow actually falling on the day!

The last 5-6 days may see the return of Northerly winds but confidence in this stage is very low. A North Easterly lasting 4-5 days seems the most likely scenario at this stage with snow showers for Eastern areas in particular.

CET - 5.4C

January:

January is likely to be a cold month. Where as December will struggle to get any decent frosts, there will not be a shortage of these in January as high pressure takes control of our weather for a time at least, bringing some painfully low night time minima, and temperatures struggling to make average during the day. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, where as rainfall is looking likely to be below average.

Snowfall throughout this period is going to be a premium.

The second third is when things start to get interesting. We start with winds switching to a morth North Westerly element, and as the week goes on, they switch around to North, followed by North East. This is likely to be the snowiest period, with much of the country seeing a good total of snow by the time the spell has finished around the 20th.

The last third is looking increasingly Atlantic dominated, with rainfall above average, and sunshine at a premium. Snow over Northern hills.

CET - 3.5C

February

February will see Winter in full force, with frequent cold spells and snow for many. Frequent Easterly winds will bring some impressive totals to Eastern areas, with the West having to wait a while to see anything wintry other than frosts.

The second period is likely to keep the Easterly theme going but perhaps snow showers for the West as the wind kicks in, sending the showers over the Pennines.

The last half is likely to be Atlantic dominated with frequent gales and above average rainfall.

CET - 2.9C

Overall an average Winter is looking likely. Nothing like the last 2, with the overall CET likely to be bang on, or VERY slightly below average.

Thanks,

Backtrack.

Edited by Backtrack
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Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

Hmm good write up backtrack

I swear you said it would be a very mild winter on your status update thing lol

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Hmm good write up backtrack

I swear you said it would be a very mild winter on your status update thing lol

Thanks Backtrack. I would take that forecast after some I've seen already!

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

Backtrack's winter forecast 2011

Hi everyone. This forecast has been created from the trends and patterns of numerous model outputs ranging from the GFS,ECM,CFS and a couple of other factors too. Please don't slate my forecast if it does not show what you would like to hear, I have put a lot of hard work into creating the forecast and think you will find it fairly accurate up until January at the least. At this stage confidence falls drastically, with January looking likely to go either way at this stage.

My confidence in February is surprisingly high, not just based on the CFS anomaly charts' trends, but also due to the fact that I believe we are long over due a cool February. And whilst weather doesn't follow a set of rules, I certainly cannot see this month being mild at the very least.

Hope you enjoy reading it, sure I'm an amateur and you will find that RJF's forecast and BFTP's (when he does his) forecasts are likely to be much better, but hey, it's all in good fun!

Their forecasts will only be better than yours if, by March 1st, they have proven to be more accurate. At the moment any winter forecast is equally as valid as any other.

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Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)

Excellent work, fingers crossed it comes off for you.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Excellent summary of your view on the coming winter BT, thanks for taking the time to compose it good.gif

I admire the fact that even though you are a coldie you have given an unbiased, balanced and as accurate forecast as you can do at this stage with the available guidance and data.

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Well done backtrack for sticking your neck out at this relatively early stage and spending time to put your thoughts down. I'm not going to critique it because a ) I know little about weather and b ) it hasn't happened yet!!!

It might be good to gather a few of these forecasts together for analysis after the season and see how everybody did.

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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

Probably not what we wanted to here. However you have dealt with the facts and they point to a typical winter. i.e mild,mild,cold interlude mild,mild. Interestingly last February was a disappointment in Scotland as it was snowless and generally mild. So getting a late winter Feb into March would suit me as a skiier. The snow in December was great last year but having a winter that ended in January kind of ruined the ski season. Most folk want to ski in March/April as there is more sun and daylight so a good fall of snow in Feb/March is needed.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Thanks very much everyone.

Hopefully it will be completely wrong and every month will be like a freezer!

Thanks again for the feedback, appreciate it. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

Interesting.. sounds like an average winter for the most part, which I'd settle for!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Well done for putting out the forecast although i fear you will get slated later for the level of detail during the months.

My only caveat is that you said on or just below average on the whole however if this were pre winter 2009, you would be forecasting the coldest winter since 1996 at 0.6C below average. Obviously November mild's thing up when you take it into account.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

By level of detail, you mean too much or too little?

Edited by Backtrack
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

By level of detail, you mean too much or too little?

I like the level of detail however because there is a lot, i imagine at the end of winter people will pick on the periods that were not similar.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

Otherwise known as nit pickers.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

So I'm going to get picked on because I have put too much thought into my forecast?

Well that's a battle I can't win.

Too little detail means the forecast is crap

Too much detail means I will get picked on?

Well if people want to pick on me for having an attempt at a long range forecast, that's a problem on their part because they couldn't be bothered to put one together.

Obviously I'm not going to get it all right, I may not get any of it right but I think it's hardly fair to pick on an amateur meteorologist for putting some thought and effort into a forecast that was never going to be bang on.

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Posted
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowageddon and a new ice age. Then a summer long bbq heatwave!
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL

Speaking of nit picking, when you mention NErlies dont forget these can reqularly penetrate the pennines and effect western parts of the UK as we saw last winter. Unless when you say "the west will have to wait" you mean poor old Runcorm lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Speaking of nit picking, when you mention NErlies dont forget these can reqularly penetrate the pennines and effect western parts of the UK as we saw last winter. Unless when you say "the west will have to wait" you mean poor old Runcorm lol.

Are you forgetting that there is a West away from NW England?

:)

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

I seem to recall north west England missing out on the bulk of the snow in early December due to the easterly wind.. then the wind switched to north west.. and us in the North East largely missed out, Humph!

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Posted
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowageddon and a new ice age. Then a summer long bbq heatwave!
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL

Are you forgetting that there is a West away from NW England?

smile.png

LOL possibly yeah, but still on a strong flow and a good streamer they still can.... just wanted to be the first to nit pick :D. Nicely written forcast on the whole matey.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

yeah great forecast (not the weather I want though) well not december, will be a washout with non stop rain for the first third, hate north westerly flows

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Posted
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowageddon and a new ice age. Then a summer long bbq heatwave!
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL

I seem to recall north west England missing out on the bulk of the snow in early December due to the easterly wind.. then the wind switched to north west.. and us in the North East largely missed out, Humph!

I'm in the northwest and we certainly did well out of both smile.png

Edited by Snowmad79
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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

Manchester, Liverpool, Chesire etc certainly didn't - Oldham might have, since it's high in elevation and is not offered shelter from the Pennines.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Manchester, Liverpool, Chesire etc certainly didn't - Oldham might have, since it's high in elevation and is not offered shelter from the Pennines.

Haha you aren't kidding about Cheshire missing out. The main story here was the depth of the cold, the snow was negligable.....2 inches at most all winter. It was similar in 2009/2010 too. The marginal snowfall of Feb 2007 gave us more- possibly 4 inches or so before it melted as the milder air crept in.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Thanks guys :)

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

I'm in the northwest and we certainly did well out of both smile.png

You're in the North West, and you're right next to the Pennines very high up. That's why you're colder and snowier than most of us. Lol.

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