Isolated Frost's Winter Outlook, 2010-11

[Isolated Frost]

My turn now

Based on hunches, expectations and pattern matching...

December: CET 4.3C Cool, quite wet and Atlantic dominated.

Cool, generally wet, especially in the north, much of it falling as snow. High pressure in Greenland persists with a stable, repetitive Scandinavian trough. Jet to the north of the UK as lows move across Scotland, but a blocked atlantic, with limited slugglish energy, pulling in cool air from the north, but moving in from the north west/west. Heavy snowfall events across western parts, generally cloudy and cool across eastern areas. Turning milder as high pressure moves in from the west, with low pressure flowing across Iceland towards the arctic. Towards Christmas and New Year, cold westerlies move back in as high pressure sinks, and wet, windy weather for the north. Some limited snowfall, and some frosty spells in the south in the last week.

Pressure anomalies -12mb Reykjavik, +2mb London, +4mb Paris, -7mb Oslo, -2mb Berlin.

January: CET 2.4C Highlight of the winter for some - generally dry after a wet start.

Cool, becoming very cold, and very dry in parts. High pressure grows again in Greenland, and the jet moves south slowly towards Britain and France - this makes for a wet start over England and Wales. Mixed with atlantic airmasses of tropical and polar mixing. Becoming very cold mid-month as the arctic floodgates are opened. Very snowy at times for northern parts, bitter cold persistently - Polar lows move in to create immense snow amounts in some western parts. Very cold and dry in southern areas again. High pressure moves in from Greenland, ridging likely, giving a milder end to the month, but still generally below average - cold, dry and frosty in northern parts, more average and cloudy in southern parts.

Pressure anomalies +5mb Reykjavik, -3mb London, -7mb Paris, -4mb Oslo, 0mb Berlin

February: CET 5.0C Extremes of attempted easterly cold to warm, sunny spells.

The month begins with high pressure in charge, and a cool flow - generally dry and sunny. Soon, pressure begins to build rapidly in the Arctic, pushing south towards Scandinavia, as the jet tries to move north. Cold air pummels through Northern and Central Europe through the middle of the month, and record cold near Germany and Denmark. Quite milder towards Britain with a southerly flow as pressure towards the north west drops once more. The scandinavian high influences the British weather slowly towards mid-late month as cold -15c uppers reach the North Sea, but they are limited by a growing Atlantic presence. They give some wintry/snowy showers to the east for a while before being ousted by an increasingly strong atlantic. Some very heavy snowfalls in the midlands and south from battleground snowfall. High pressure generally moves in from the south/southeast late in the month as the first signs of warmer spring-like weather appear. A very warm, sunny end to the month with some westerlies and wetter weather for the north, but mostly dry and sunny, especially in the south.

Pressure anomalies -8mb Reykjavik, +8mb London, +7mb Paris, +4mb Oslo, +10mb Berlin

[Radiating Dendrite]

Similar Cets to mine there

Different synoptics though.

[Isolated Frost]

Yes, I feel that low heights over the northwest will be likely for the majority of winter. Winter ending up about 0.5c below average in the CET zone, but I feel about 1.0c-1.5c below in northwestern parts, and about 0c-0.5c above in southeastern parts.

[summer blizzard]

Well done for making a forecast, seems well thought out.

[DAVID SNOW]

Winter Outlook 2010-2011.

Hmmm,Think you missed the record breaking cold December.

[Isolated Frost]

Winter Outlook 2010-2011.

Hmmm,Think you missed the record breaking cold December.

Woops. Schoolboy error on my behalf, albeit from a schoolboy

[ZONE 51]

Good forecast Isolated Frost, lets hope to see some snow for all that want snow! (ah the title just ask a moderator to tweak that to 11/12!) i always enjoy reading lrfs, on mobile earlier and 3 of them on the same day! my turn next then!

[reef]

Consolidated winter forecast thread here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71325-the-winter-201112-forecast-thread/

Thanks