The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[ZONE 51]

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Edited October 26, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[feb1991blizzard]

No, they said they can only base there forcast on the winter over all. They also said that the decline in ice in the Northern Hemisphere leads to a more easterly driven winter.

So surely an Easterly driven winter would be at worst a significantly colder than average winter and at best an absolute belter, i presume ice is still declining in the NH although i havent been on any of the climate change threads for a while.

[johnholmes]

I hate precis of someone talking but things he mentioned as being 'drivers' were

ENSO

E lNino and La Nina

Arctic Ice cover

Sun activity

All are used by him to TRY and suggest an overall weather pattern a season ahead.

His suggestion was that we are entering a La Nina phase which he said tends to favour coldish starts to winter and milder ends

Arctic Ice is at its 2nd lowest ever and tends to suggest easterly winds

The sun activity is increasing and may have less effect than last winter.

It was interesting hearing someone from the Met office talking about solar effects-even 5 and certainly 20 years ago he would have been laughed out of court. So they are at last starting to look at a wider horizon that Atlantic SST's and what the NAO may do.

So surely an Easterly driven winter would be at worst a significantly colder than average winter and at best an absolute belter, i presume ice is still declining in the NH although i havent been on any of the climate change threads for a while.

It depends just how you interpret the data as I've commented before.

Dr Scafe suggested it implied colder than average but he did not mention significantly colder. One would have to be able to ask him why to get a full answer so best we still make 2+2=4 and not another number?

To the best of my memory ability he said in connection with sun activity something along these lines

It’s the UV effect on the upper atmosphere that has the major impact. This tends to support an easterly flow and as winter begins this tends to propagate down through the atmosphere. This in turn affects the jet stream, causing it to weaken and move south.

During solar minimums winters in the Euro sector tend to be colder than average

Hopefully I have not misquoted him but by all means click on the link kindly provided by LL and listen especially to about 8m20s to 9m32s to hear Dr Scafe

[Polar Maritime]

Yes. thanks LL for posting the link. Sorry for the lack of info on this, and bad judgment of time. I only got a snippit myself, yes as JH says its the first time i have heard them talk about sunspots.

[ZONE 51]

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Edited October 26, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[feb1991blizzard]

I hate precis of someone talking but things he mentioned as being 'drivers' were

ENSO

E lNino and La Nina

Arctic Ice cover

Sun activity

All are used by him to TRY and suggest an overall weather pattern a season ahead.

His suggestion was that we are entering a La Nina phase which he said tends to favour coldish starts to winter and milder ends

Arctic Ice is at its 2nd lowest ever and tends to suggest easterly winds

The sun activity is increasing and may have less effect than last winter.

It was interesting hearing someone from the Met office talking about solar effects-even 5 and certainly 20 years ago he would have been laughed out of court. So they are at last starting to look at a wider horizon that Atlantic SST's and what the NAO may do.

It depends just how you interpret the data as I've commented before.

Dr Scafe suggested it implied colder than average but he did not mention significantly colder. One would have to be able to ask him why to get a full answer so best we still make 2+2=4 and not another number?

To the best of my memory ability he said in connection with sun activity something along these lines

It’s the UV effect on the upper atmosphere that has the major impact. This tends to support an easterly flow and as winter begins this tends to propagate down through the atmosphere. This in turn affects the jet stream, causing it to weaken and move south.

During solar minimums winters in the Euro sector tend to be colder than average

Hopefully I have not misquoted him but by all means click on the link kindly provided by LL and listen especially to about 8m20s to 9m32s to hear Dr Scafe

I cant use the link as my software on this computer is outdated, i will listen to it tommorow on another computer but i get the general theme that it might not be looking as grim for the first half of winter after all and as someone said average winters tend to deliver for the North anyway, What i would say is there is so many different things to take into consideration that are prone to change that nothing is set in stone. I was intending on producing a winter forecast of my own this year taking into consideration data from previous winters and pattern matching but i soon realised that there is so many teleconnective issues to take into consideration and records of ENSO, QBO, PDO dont go back far enough to give a decent sample size, that said i do believe that patterns do develop and things go in decadal cycles, i am convinced the last few winters is just the mid 80s cycle coming around again albeit with different times of the winter delivering cold and that the warmer winters of the 90s and 00s may be nothing to do with man made climate change. I remember the Early - Mid 90s febs delivering cold even excluding 91, there were some generally rubbish winters for snow (i lived 100 miles further south then) but 92,93,94 all had easterly driven februarys (not memorable snow events but snow events all the same) and if you add that to 91 and also consider that 1995 had a really snowy cold first 2 weeks of March, and that feb 1996 was a belter (although the whole winter wasnt bad TBH), then you have to say that is a pattern of decent endings to winter. I am thinking that a pattern could be developing with early winters and i wonder if this is just another cycle.

[ITSY]

having just forecast basically mild weather for the next month, the 18Z GFS throws up a scenario that puts northern GB in the fridge (perhaps not freezer just yet!) for a WEEK - most of FI. certainly a trend to watch out for, as GFS has developed cooler and cooler weather over the last 2/3 runs during that period. A v.cold outlier i reckon, but interesting to note...does anyone have a link to show the general GFS outputs (control, operational etc...)?

[feb1991blizzard]

having just forecast basically mild weather for the next month, the 18Z GFS throws up a scenario that puts northern GB in the fridge (perhaps not freezer just yet!) for a WEEK - most of FI. certainly a trend to watch out for, as GFS has developed cooler and cooler weather over the last 2/3 runs during that period. A v.cold outlier i reckon, but interesting to note...does anyone have a link to show the general GFS outputs (control, operational etc...)?

You can view them on the Netweather chart viewer or over on wetter but the Ensembles wont be updated for another 20 mins yet.

http://www.netweathe...ensviewer;sess=

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnmgeur.html

Im not sure it will be a massive outlier though, a few members have been trending below the -5 uppers line recently although that nothing unusual for the time of year.

Edited October 26, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[summer blizzard]

Not an outlier for temperature in the south however it is one of the coolest in the north and west.

We should really be discussing this in the model thread so i will leave it now although a brilliant run.

[gottolovethisweather]

I hate precis of someone talking but things he mentioned as being 'drivers' were

ENSO

E lNino and La Nina

Arctic Ice cover

Sun activity

All are used by him to TRY and suggest an overall weather pattern a season ahead.

His suggestion was that we are entering a La Nina phase which he said tends to favour coldish starts to winter and milder ends

Arctic Ice is at its 2nd lowest ever and tends to suggest easterly winds

Thanks John.

One thing I noted, was the way the "indiscriminate, media driven, arrogant BBC/SKY drivel type news style questions" and general information came across. Bloody pathetic!!!!!!

What chance do the proper MetO/Professionals have, of any LRF's being re-quoted in the "ACTUAL WORDS" in which they were "ORIGINALLY STATED".

Anyway, if I briefly refer to their advice, concerning this year, please make a coat an essential item of clothing for this winter (unlike 63) and let's also hope the government gets their act together, this year!

Anyone care for another of these?

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited October 27, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Thanks John.

One thing I noted, was the way the "indiscriminate, media driven, arrogant BBC/SKY drivel type, news style questions and general information came across. Bloody pathetic!!!!!!

What chance do the proper MetO/Professionals have, of any LRF's being re-quoted in the "ACTUAL WORDS" in which they were "ORIGINALLY STATED".

Anyway, if I briefly refer to their advice, concerning this year, please make a coat an essential item of clothing for this winter (unlike 63) and let's also hope the government gets their act together, this year!

Anyone care for another of these?

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited October 27, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Ladyofthestorm]

Ive just had a look at Stewart Ramplings prelimary thoughts video, Im not convinced he is thinking a cold start to winter, possibly a cold end though. I am still going for an atcive mobile winter, just like I said a few months ago. However I think using the phrase "the earliest we will see this is Feb" which was in realtion to Stratospheric warming events, is the giveaway for a cold, late Spring.

The weather over the summer is behaving very much like 1998, which I have mentioned in some of my other posts, Stewart reinforced that idea in his little presentation on one of the pwerpoint slides.

December CET: +0.6 above average: The main driver is a postive AO, with the high pressure over Greenland weak and transistionary. I think December will be a very mobile month with very large areas of low pressure bringing in wind and rain, above average temps, as high pressue over eastern Europe and Low pressure over the atlantic draws in warmer air from Africa. However still think our cold spells will come from The NW and North as low pressure moves off into the near continent, dragging in cooler air behind. No sustained cold Im afarid. Looks like being a brown grey christmas. This is potentially a very stormy month (Just like 1998 that had the boxing day storms up here in the north).

January CET -0.3C below the average, A little more blocking to the North calming down a brewing Atlantic, AO should be turning slightly negative by then. Wintry outbreaks from the north again and possible return of high pressure over the atlantic allowing cooler air down over the UK. Another transitionary phase of atlantic weather possible late January.

February CET -0.1C Just slightly below average . I dont think the Stratosphere will warm up in time for the end of winter, Possible sttled dry weather. High pressure dominating (just as it did Feb 2011).

Coolest minimaTemperature -17C Altnaharra in January ( that isnt rocket science).

Warmest Maxima Temperture +15C Somewhere along the South Coast in December.

The good news is for snow lovers, that we should get some snow in January, rather than extreme penetrating frosts, and hardened grey slush.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So Lady

You are not calling a mild winter anymore? You were quite strong about this earlier. so you now think average overall...whats the main reason?

BFTP

[Aaron]

Sounds like a good forecast to me

[Ladyofthestorm]

So Lady

You are not calling a mild winter anymore? You were quite strong about this earlier. so you now think average overall...whats the main reason?

BFTP

Hi Blast, a mild winter is an average winter for the UK. Its atlantic dominated. Remind me of your forecast again?

[Radiating Dendrite]

Hi Blast, a mild winter is an average winter for the UK. Its atlantic dominated. Remind me of your forecast again?

"a mild winter is an average winter"...........do you work for the MetO LOTS??

I think you were originally going for a milder than average winter, you were pretty forward with this opinion from what I can remember.

[Staffordshire]

Hi Blast, a mild winter is an average winter for the UK. Its atlantic dominated. Remind me of your forecast again?

Actually a mild winter is above average. That said an average winter does include daily mild weather anyhow.

[Ladyofthestorm]

"a mild winter is an average winter"...........do you work for the MetO LOTS??

I think you were originally going for a milder than average winter, you were pretty forward with this opinion from what I can remember.

lol, RD are you nittpicking, just because it looks increasingly likely that the cold winter hopecast by many is going down the cybersink. I am a damn sight closer with my prediction than those who were forecasting a La nina repeat of last winter. because it aint going to happen. And yes, the CET average takes into account those very very mild winters of2006, 2007, 2008, 2003, and the 1980's It is going to be no repeat of 2010/ 2011, and yes I said it woulkd have shades of 1998... very unsettled. Lets face it the CET is a very crude way of measuring average temps as it only takes into account whats happening in a relatively proportion of the UK, I stuck in a CET reading which is what it will be below the average rather than actual, to emphasise that it isnt the cold we should be preparing for, it should be flooding!

But hey Im trying to find those posts as well, because I get a feeling Im being misquoted!I havent actually changed anything. Its a mild winter.#

And I suppose if you feel the need to get pedantic, +0.6+ -0.3+-0.1 averaged out is still + so technically above average! So there!

Edited October 27, 2011 by Ladyofthestorm

[Radiating Dendrite]

lol, RD are you nittpicking, just because it looks increasingly likely that the cold winter hopecast by many is going down the cybersink. I am a damn sight closer with my prediction than those who were forecasting a La nina repeat of last winter. because it aint going to happen. And yes, the CET average takes into account those very very mild winters of2006, 2007, 2008, 2003, and the 1980's It is going to be no repeat of 2010/ 2011, and yes I said it woulkd have shades of 1998... very unsettled. Lets face it the CET is a very crude way of measuring average temps as it only takes into account whats happening in a relatively proportion of the UK, I stuck in a CET reading which is what it will be below the average rather than actual, to emphasise that it isnt the cold we should be preparing for, it should be flooding!

But hey Im trying to find those posts as well, because I get a feeling Im being misquoted!I havent actually changed anything. Its a mild winter.

LOTS, I do not see the cold winter going down the cybersink at all.

From what I can see, the general theme seems to be two months average-to slightly below and a third month below average. I would suggest the mild winter option is heading down the cybersink, but that could be nittpicking.

I am confused by your La Nina interpretation? This winter will be a La Nina winter, like the last one?

One more thing, we said that you were saying that this winter would be mild (which you then said meant average). Then in your last post "Its a mild winter", does that not back up what BFTP was saying?

Can we play nicely?

Edited October 27, 2011 by Radiating Dendrite

[Ladyofthestorm]

Of course... chucks a cyber snowball at RD

I remember how this all started it was that forecast by James Macmadden and I totally slated it, saying that conditons were not the same as last year and thats what started it....

Its ok RD when you are up to your knees in water I will come and rescue you in my boat. lol

Edited October 27, 2011 by Ladyofthestorm

[Radiating Dendrite]

Of course... chucks a cyber snowball at RD

I remember how this all started it was that forecast by James Macmadden and I totally slated it, saying that conditons were not the same as last year and thats what started it....

Its ok RD when you are up to your knees in water I will come and rescue you in my boat. lol

Its ok, I think I am safe from flooding in Surrey

Your boat may be ice bound anyway

[Ladyofthestorm]

lol I wish! We live on the gulfstream.... oh forgot JM said that would be in reverse or something didnt he... so such flaming luck.

[Radiating Dendrite]

lol I wish! We live on the gulfstream.... oh forgot JM said that would be in reverse or something didnt he... so such flaming luck.

We may disagree on many things LOTS, but our opinions of James Madden seem to be the same.

Anyway, we shall pick up this conversation in April, only then will we know the answer!

[Ladyofthestorm]

The last ENSO forecast I looked at was it was going to go neutral or slightly negative, certainly not like the La Nina of last winter. Im still thinking they may change that to positive, the ECMF model seems to think so.

[wimblettben]

I would be quite suprised if the whole of the Winter turns out to be average.

It is early day's yet guys anyway to be worrying too much!