The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[Ladyofthestorm]

We may disagree on many things LOTS, but our opinions of James Madden seem to be the same.

Anyway, we shall pick up this conversation in April, only then will we know the answer!

Fair enough, by then I should be able to have dug myself out of the snow hole that I have managed to get myself into. lol

[syed2878]

Hey guys just come off the phone to radio4 the only program they talked about the winter was on a program called costing the earth. Yesterday 9pm to 9.30pm.

[BA Baracus]

I don't often post on this site, more of a lurker and have very little technical weather knowledge but is long range forecasting anything other than pure luck?

I do enjoy reading the forecasts and do hope for another cold winter with snow, but I cannot see how long range forecasts are anything more than the equivalent of putting various possible outcomes into a hat and pulling them out for each month.

I do, however, have utmost respect for those of you who look into variables that make our weather so complex; the phases of the moon, various oceanic currents, and other complicated things that are difficult to fathom!

[ITSY]

my answer would be that for the big institutions they are often based on scientific grounding - but ultimately, it is guesswork. Often, we can't predict weather 5 days ahead, let alone 3 months. Luck, IMO, plays a key factor.

[johnholmes]

my answer would be that for the big institutions they are often based on scientific grounding - but ultimately, it is guesswork. Often, we can't predict weather 5 days ahead, let alone 3 months. Luck, IMO, plays a key factor.

luck plays no part whatever in the scientific forecast and assessment, it depends totally on scientific reasoning, be it from a human or a computer or the best forecast a combination of them both. Here the human forecaster takes the baic model output and 'tweaks' it according to his/her knowledge and experience. So no luck there.The luck I supose is how some folk may assess the forecast?

[Summer Sun]

Well once again Maddens forecast for November is looking highly doubtful at present,

November 2011

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in November: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, Midlands, East.

Well I'm sorry but I can't find anything to suggest that any Regions will be affected by snow the Met Offices 16-30 day outlook confirms this, if any thing November is looking like been mild for the first third at least never mind cold.

He also says this,

THIS STILL STANDS!

I also expect NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY, and FEBRUARY to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK, it is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken within this defined time frame.

Once again this is looking fairly unlikely for November.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Well once again Maddens forecast for November is looking highly doubtful at present,

Well I'm sorry but I can't find anything to suggest that any Regions will be affected by snow the Met Offices 16-30 day outlook confirms this, if any thing November is looking like been mild for the first third at least never mind cold.

He also says this,

Once again this is looking fairly unlikely for November.

Is Madden about to be found out

I do admire his hopecasting though

[sebastiaan1973]

The nonsense of James Madden has even reached the Dutch news for children. They told you shouldn't to Brittain this winter because it will freeze more than 20 degrees

[beng]

Is Madden about to be found out

I do admire his hopecasting though

Come on we've not even reached November yet - bit harsh - at least wait until Mid November before commencing the bashing. You have to admire his confidence though - probably over confident given the chaotic nature of the weather. I think it's crazy that the press have picked up on his website like this though - total madness.

Edited October 27, 2011 by beng

[Strider]

luck plays no part whatever in the scientific forecast and assessment, it depends totally on scientific reasoning, be it from a human or a computer or the best forecast a combination of them both. Here the human forecaster takes the baic model output and 'tweaks' it according to his/her knowledge and experience. So no luck there.The luck I supose is how some folk may assess the forecast?

The forecasts aren't based on luck but probabilities.

If I say it's going to snow on January 24th then that *is* based on luck as I have no theory to back it up.

But proper forecasters make assumptions based on current climatic condtions and connections. Obviously the further away you are predicting the more tenuous those links become, reducing the probability of accuracy.

Unfortunately a lot of people see forecasting as black & white so forecasters get a lot of unfair criticism due to ignorance of statistical likelihoods.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Come on we've not even reached November yet - bit harsh - at least wait until Mid November before commencing the bashing. You have to admire his confidence though - probably over confident given the chaotic nature of the weather. I think it's crazy that the press have picked up on his website like this though - total madness.

To be fair though, maybe he just got the timings wrong, as GP admitted had happened with his summer forecast.

In James' case he seems to be a mere 18,000 years too late

[welshgritter]

I just want cold cold and more cold...........cant come quick enough!!!

[mcweather]

I'd be wary about jumping on the Madden bashing bandwagon just yet. After all at this time last year most people on here would have been hard pushed to find anything suggesting what was about to happen from mid November 2010. I have no idea whether Mr Maddens forecast will be close to reality or not but the time to judge it is after the winter not before it has even started.

[Roger J Smith]

If you want to sound like you know how to make a long-range forecast, just follow this sort of pattern:

"We are quite confident that temperatures will be lower much of the time near the peak of Snowdon than in the French Riviera or Abu Dhabi."

[Isolated Frost]

If you want to sound like you know how to make a long-range forecast, just follow this sort of pattern:

"We are quite confident that temperatures will be lower much of the time near the peak of Snowdon than in the French Riviera or Abu Dhabi."

January 8th...

BBC News, ''and it's off to Nice where our weather forecaster Carol Kirkwood is stationed during this bizarre weather that has hit parts of southern france, northern spain and italy''

''Yes hello there, it's a real shock to the system out here today Huw; temperatures have fell to -4c here on the coastline with a stiff east-southeasterly blowing in snow showers and at times, thunder! for comparison the snowdon summit temperature has only fell to 6c with drizzle and stratus for the majority of the day''

''amazing stuff Carol, and now Laura Tobin is at Abu Dhabi with some interesting developments in regards to the weather on the burj al arab today, Laura...''

hmm...

Edited October 27, 2011 by Isolated Frost

[UV-RAY]

Although I don't condone James Maddens winter forecast, I do believe we should at least wait until December before we pass judgement. After all too assume his forecast is wrong, could just make an ass out of you and me.

[cheeky_monkey]

Looking at the forecast pattern of winter across N America im going for a NW biase for the UK maybe similar to winter 1992-93..slightly colder than average no months significantly below normal..north more snow..sunnier and and drier than normal esp in the south east quater...possible easterly outbreak towards end of jan or early Feb.

[feb1991blizzard]

Although I don't condone James Maddens winter forecast, I do believe we should at least wait until December before we pass judgement. After all too assume his forecast is wrong, could just make an ass out of you and me.

While we should wait untill December to pass judgement on his December forecast, he always seems to over hype things, and he always talks about solar activity like its the only thing that has any effect on UK winters, he must have some meteorological background and i do believe he has some merits, he did forecast our summer pretty well and called last december as well but it seems to me that he does have some agenda which causes him to forecast severe weather all the time, particularly in winter, yes he has forecasted cold winters correctly the last few but some of his forecasts are so ridiculas that even i wouldnt have come out with even in one of my supercharged desperation wanting school to close back in the 80s when i was about 12 years old!. It seems to me that either he is doing it to grab headlines or he is giving too much weighting to low solar activity and thus we are getting cold winters because this is a factor but not the mini ice age ones he is predicting, i would also have to say his wording of forecasts isnt the best either and other forecasters like Stewart Rampling on here sound much more professional, i would like James madden to do what stewart does on here and talk to people on forums, he has got a youtube A/C he is called UKweathergeek but its been dormant for ages and he hasnt been on the Daily Mail thread for 12 months either.

[ukpaul]

Although I don't condone James Maddens winter forecast, I do believe we should at least wait until December before we pass judgement. After all too assume his forecast is wrong, could just make an ass out of you and me.

Yes, I think Madden's off beam but attacking someone for their forecast for a month that we haven't even reached yet is just a deliberate attempt to cause an argument.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Blast, a mild winter is an average winter for the UK. Its atlantic dominated. Remind me of your forecast again?

Feb 1984 for example was Atlantic dominated and it was cold. My forecast? Think I'll sit this one out this year, I mean I couldn't go cold again!!?

BFTP

Edited October 27, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Snowstorm1]

Feb 1984 for example was Atlantic dominated and it was cold. My forecast? Think I'll sit this one out this year, I mean I couldn't go cold again!!?

BFTP

Yes you could ...

[Mark Parsons]

This guy has the right to his opinion and obviously believes his prediction despite the some data suggesting the opposite, so it will be interesting to see what happens!

[Rollo]

James Madden got a lot of flak as far as I know under the name of Weather Geek on the Mail site so he said he would post there no more, as to his winter forecast as has been said ,it is far to early to tell but current signs do not bode well for his November forecast.

[Staffordshire]

James madden wasn't to far off on his summer forecast...

[Coast]

:winky: