The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[shedhead]

Well that was ermmmmm interesting. Whether right or wrong you have to admire the guys enthusiasm, as well as his complete lack of any ambiguity.... the MO could certainly learn a few things from him, coz there were definately no fences in sight...

[Summer Sun]

James madden wasn't to far off on his summer forecast...

More luck than anything, a wise person said on the forums way back in April or May we would pay for the good weather and we did, anyone who issues a forecast that far in advance has to rely on some luck.

[stewfox]

lol, RD are you nittpicking, just because it looks increasingly likely that the cold winter hopecast by many is going down the cybersink. I am a damn sight closer with my prediction than those who were forecasting a La nina repeat of last winter. because it aint going to happen. And yes, the CET average takes into account those very very mild winters of2006, 2007, 2008, 2003, and the 1980's It is going to be no repeat of 2010/ 2011, and yes I said it woulkd have shades of 1998... very unsettled. Lets face it the CET is a very crude way of measuring average temps as it only takes into account whats happening in a relatively proportion of the UK, I stuck in a CET reading which is what it will be below the average rather than actual, to emphasise that it isnt the cold we should be preparing for, it should be flooding!

But hey Im trying to find those posts as well, because I get a feeling Im being misquoted!I havent actually changed anything. Its a mild winter.#

And I suppose if you feel the need to get pedantic, +0.6+ -0.3+-0.1 averaged out is still + so technically above average! So there!

I love these posts from October saying its looks increasingly likely 'winters over'. Thank god in the real world we can't go beyond T168 with any confidence.

Wouldn't it be boring if someones 'predictions' were always accurate.

On the model thread November has been written of as there is nothing in FI ie nothing in the fantasy world of cir 13th Nov

Winters over for me (if you like cold/snow) around 3rd week February because even if cold is forcast within T168 its not going to bring a long cold snap.

Folks its only October put the razors away for a few more months..

Well that was ermmmmm interesting. Whether right or wrong you have to admire the guys enthusiasm, as well as his complete lack of any ambiguity.... the MO could certainly learn a few things from him, coz there were definately no fences in sight...

I learn't you should buy mostquito repellent before you make a forecast up there in the summer ?

Edited October 29, 2011 by stewfox

[Summer Sun]

Wrong Place

Edited October 29, 2011 by Gavin D

[jean91]

really wainting to see how december is going to fare up as here in Paris if we get a bellow nov and dec of 1.5c we are in for the warmest year since 1874 ( Paris Montsouris station)

Funny with a not so good summer ( well only july was bellow average then january just a touch above for Paris )

Also on a national note all depends on november and december to top 2003 as the warmest year.2011 has certainly a chance of being on the top 3 of warmest year nationaly and concerning Paris first or second.So i wish cold too but am hesitating if i wish it after the 31st december or not.( it is going to be long to wait till then though)

[jean91]

really wainting to see how december is going to fare up as here in Paris if we get a bellow nov and dec of 1.5c we are in for the warmest year since 1874 ( Paris Montsouris station)

Funny with a not so good summer ( well only july was bellow average then january just a touch above for Paris )

Also on a national note all depends on november and december to top 2003 as the warmest year.2011 has certainly a chance of being on the top 3 of warmest year nationaly and concerning Paris first or second.So i wish cold too but am hesitating if i wish it after the 31st december or not.( it is going to be long to wait till then though)

We are at 1.8c to 1.9c above in Paris from january to 29th october so we need not go bellow 2c for nov and dec

we are on the road to the warmest year in the official Paris station opened in 1874.

Well.....unless a december like 1879 comes ( i know in my dreams)

[bobbydog]

why is anyone defending james madden??? he said last winter would be a 3 month snowmageddon of epic proportions! we got one big hit of snow and he claimed his whole forecast was right! this year, he is basing his forecast on last winter, repeating the early cold, then continuing on throughout winter as severe. those of you saying 'give his november forecast a chance' would do well to remember, he said we would all be getting heavy snow by the end of october! bearing in mind we have real experts struggling to forecast the weather four weeks from now, this 'cheeky fellow' started his winter forecast in june!! as for taking flak on the daily mail forums, one of the people giving him flak was me! i tried to have a reasonable debate with him but he very quickly turned out to be an arrogant, unreasonable, narrow minded 'chap' who claimed anyone who disagreed with him was a 'sheep' who beleived the 'mainstream' press. ironically, the outlet for his wild claims!

Edited October 31, 2011 by IanM
just softening the tone a tad....

[Backtrack]

Well that was ermmmmm interesting. Whether right or wrong you have to admire the guys enthusiasm, as well as his complete lack of any ambiguity.... the MO could certainly learn a few things from him, coz there were definately no fences in sight...

MINUS SIXTEEN AT MA HOUSE!

[shedhead]

MINUS SIXTEEN AT MA HOUSE!

I think you'll find it was... ma hooose.

[ZONE 51]

This is the winter forecast thread, It is about people placing there predictions and others commenting on the forecast.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Let the forecast period get under way at least before 'analysing' its acuuracies/inaccuracies. Just because the models aren't showing much right now proves little...although there are IMO signs that we may well be heading for a cold phase second half of Nov. I've just tried the ignore setting...beautiful....it works a treat.

BFTP

[Liam J]

Well one of the Warmest Octobers on record, What was it James M predicted for October..... He couldn't have been further away from the truth.

[A Winter's Tale]

Well one of the Warmest Octobers on record, What was it James M predicted for October..... He couldn't have been further away from the truth.

He didn't say that October was going to be a big freeze month and said that he expected it to snow in October OR November. But I do agree that he is a bit of sensationist and extreme forecaster.

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

He has now got his final winter outlook and he mentioned Co Derry earliest snowfall in 50 years and snow in the Cairngorms (which I was lucky to see).

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&DAY=20111031

Weather Online outlook for December and January looks rather wintery and cold despite a milder Christmas.

[Amanzi]

Go to 23 minutes for Piers Corbyn's take on things :winky:

[Liam J]

He didn't say that October was going to be a big freeze month and said that he expected it to snow in October OR November. But I do agree that he is a bit of sensationist and extreme forecaster.

http://www.exactawea...e_Forecast.html

He has now got his final winter outlook and he mentioned Co Derry earliest snowfall in 50 years and snow in the Cairngorms (which I was lucky to see).

http://www.weatheron...06&DAY=20111031

Weather Online outlook for December and January looks rather wintery and cold despite a milder Christmas.

He keeps updating his forecast because he has got it very wrong! He should stick with one forecast and leave it and not change it when we reach such a time where his own forecast was predicting the oppisite. He mentioned snowfall as early as October, it's been exceptionally mild all month even record breaking, this looks like carrying on into November atm.

Snowfall in the cairngorms in October, nothing unusual.

Go to 23 minutes for Piers Corbyn's take on things :winky:

I wouldn't believe a word that came out of his mouth, look at the state!! and judging by some of his forecasts over recent years he is just another sensationalist extreme nonsense spouter.

[A Winter's Tale]

Snowfall in the cairngorms in October, nothing unusual.

It snowed in plenty of settlements such as Pitlochry, Dalwhinnhe, Aviemore, Kingussie and Grantown-on Spey. I think for snow to fall in any settlement in the UK in October or May is quite notable.

[Radiating Dendrite]

It snowed in plenty of settlements such as Pitlochry, Dalwhinnhe, Aviemore, Kingussie and Grantown-on Spey. I think for snow to fall in any settlement in the UK in October or May is quite notable.

Aviemore?

How did you find out it snowed in these settlements?

From what I heard it was over 500m on the mountains.

[Ladyofthestorm]

It snowed in plenty of settlements such as Pitlochry, Dalwhinnhe, Aviemore, Kingussie and Grantown-on Spey. I think for snow to fall in any settlement in the UK in October or May is quite notable.

Not really having come from Highland areas, these are areas surrounded by very high mountains and I have countless times seen snow in October and in May.... It makes no difference to what will happen in the winter months. Its not really all that uncommon.

And I didnt see any now lying in Speyside as I was there that weekend... it was on the hills and mountains and on the top of the Drummochter pass (1400m above sea level)

[Radiating Dendrite]

Not really having come from Highland areas, these are areas surrounded by very high mountains and I have countless times seen snow in October and in May.... It makes no difference to what will happen in the winter months. Its not really all that uncommon.

And I didnt see any now lying in Speyside as I was there that weekend... it was on the hills and mountains and on the top of the Drummochter pass (1400m above sea level)

I think you mean Ft?

Not to be pedantic of course!

Edited October 31, 2011 by Radiating Dendrite

[Easily sled]

Another one to add to the mix, a bit more positive, if you like that type of thing....

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html

[Liam J]

It snowed in plenty of settlements such as Pitlochry, Dalwhinnhe, Aviemore, Kingussie and Grantown-on Spey. I think for snow to fall in any settlement in the UK in October or May is quite notable.

I was keeping an eye on the Aberfeldy webcam during the cooler spell and the snow level was quite high on the mountain slopes that were visible in the distance. Pitlochry is around the same elevation as Aberfeldy (115-120m ASL) the snow level was around 500-600m and nowhere near these locations.

Edited October 31, 2011 by Liam J

[Eskimo]

Another one to add to the mix, a bit more positive, if you like that type of thing....

http://markvoganweat...long-range.html

I like Mark Vogan, so I believe him!

[Eugene]

I'm surprised we havent seen Ian Brown around lately, ive noticed that the really cold pools of air are getting less cold every year even alot of blocking around doesnt guarantee these really cold airmasses at the 850 hPa level and that we have to rely on inversion cold for our wintry weather, shcoking lack of cold pools on GFS 12Z even with strong blocking around. yes its only November on the run but you would expect more cold pools around than that.

[A Winter's Tale]

I was going up to Aviemore on the Wednesday and it we passed through snow showers at Pitlochry (falling at the same elevation as the town) and in Strathspey. There were plenty of snow showers scattered along the A9 route and falling to around 650ft. At the hotel in Grantown-on-Spey I heard that it had snowed in the town earlier in the afternoon.

[stewfox]

I was going up to Aviemore on the Wednesday and it we passed through snow showers at Pitlochry (falling at the same elevation as the town) and in Strathspey. There were plenty of snow showers scattered along the A9 route and falling to around 650ft. At the hotel in Grantown-on-Spey I heard that it had snowed in the town earlier in the afternoon.

Lets stick with 'what people have heard' , rather then people actually being there.