Backtrack's Bonfire Night Forecast

[Backtrack]

Hi guys.

I thought I'd make a forecast for those of you planning to go to an event, or perhaps if you're hosting one of your own.

I hope you find this to be accurate.

Scotland

The weather in Scotland I can confidently say will be dry for most, with just an outside chance of a light shower in the South. Northern and Western parts will be lucky enough to see clear spells, or clear sky completely. The West will stay dry although here we will see overcast conditions with little in the way of clear slots.

There will be no precipitation around according to the GFS. The wind will be fairly chilly, as it will be coming from the North thanks to low pressure in the Atlantic. The winds will not be coming directly from the Arctic, so it will not be snowing, but it may be quite cool where the skies are clear especially with 4 or 5C being the minimum for the early part of the night. Where cloud persists, the temperatures should be holding up at 6-9C. Winds remaining light.

Northern Ireland

The weather in Northern Ireland will be very similar to that of Scotland's. Here again we share the Northerly wind flow, which will taking the edge off the temperatures, especially on Northern and Eastern coasts where the wind could be gusting up to around 30mph. Elsewhere the winds are looking calm, and it's likely to be dry and clear. Temperatures a touch down on Scotland's too, perhaps low enough for a light frost to begin to develop. 3-6C widely. The coastal areas will be a touch up temperature wise too, with the winds coming in off the sea. Temperatures up into double digits on exposed coasts, feeling raw in the strong wind.

England

The weather in parts of England is likely to be disappointing for going to, or hosting an event. We see the Southern coast being hit by showers, or perhaps longer spells of rain which will be moving up from the channel thanks to low pressure sat over France. Elsewhere it should be a cloudy, but dry affair thanks to the Azores high which will be ridging up from the South West during the coming days. Winds in most places will be light, but again from the North which will be taking the edge off the temperature. Winds will be mainly light away from Cornwall where the low sat over France will be influencing the weather, bringing the risk of a shower, and winds gusting to 20-30mph. Any showers should be mainly light here. We also see the extreme Southern coast being influenced by the low, bringing slightly gusty winds.

Elsewhere it should be mainly dry with the outside chance of a light shower on the Eastern coastline, but the risk is very low. Temperatures around most parts will be in the range of 9-12C, perhaps as high as 15C in some Southern parts.

Wales

Wales will see a similar story to England, winds will be gusting to around 30mph on Western coasts, but it should be a dry, but cloudy affair for most of the region, with just the outside chance of a light shower for Northern areas, the risk being very low. Temperatures likely to be slightly cooler than England's, but especially with the wind gusting, it's going to feel quite cool. Widely, temperatures should be holding up at 9-12C for the early part of the night at least. Best chance of any clearer spells will be in the West of the region, elsewhere, even with the influence of higher pressure starting to come into play, it will unfortunately be cloudy. But at least it should be dry.

Data

Most of the data I used to base this forecast on will feature below:

The above chart shows total cloud cover as a percentage. The lighter the colour the more cloud, the darker the less. It illustrates quite clearly that Northern Ireland and Western Scotland, especially the isles; will be seeing the best of any clear spells.

The above chart shows precipitation. It's clearly illustrated that the Southern coastline will be seeing the most precipitation. Generally, I take the light blue colours as a warning for the outside chance of a shower, where as the darker colours I interpret as longer spells of rain, or heavier showers with a greater chance of materializing.

The above chart shows the expected minimum temperature, as you can see it's clearly showing that most of Ireland, Northern and Ireland and Scotland are likely to see the coldest conditions.

The above chart shows clearly a direct Northerly flow across the UK but not from the Arctic as you can see from the twisting at the top of the chart as the wind winds with the pressure isobars. Pretty cool huh. :winky:

Lastly this chart shows the 850HPA air temperature. It generally needs to be -5C or below for snow. This supports my comments that the wind flow will not support snow for Scotland/N.Ireland.

Thanks for reading guys. Hope you all enjoyed my forecast!

Have a great bonfire night!

Backtrack.

Edited November 1, 2011 by Backtrack

[Summer Sun]

Thanks BT looks like my bonfire night fire is still on,

Enjoy the night all and remember to stay safe.

[Liam J]

Christmas forecast next :w00t:

[Isolated Frost]

Will it be snowing here? I've got a barbour jacket and a timbaland one and need to know!

Thanks, IF.

Edit: of course, joking. good forecast mate

Edited November 1, 2011 by Isolated Frost

[Backtrack]

Christmas forecast next :w00t:

Already done one of those mate.

Will it be snowing here? I've got a barbour jacket and a timbaland one and need to know!

Thanks, IF.

Edit: of course, joking. good forecast mate

No, but it could be hot. Make sure your BBQ party goes according to plan. :winky:

Thanks too

[Optimus Prime]

Another mild bonfire night than. Good forecast.

Last time we had a cold and frosty Bonfire night for England was back in 1988 under an inversion high. CET for that day was 2.6c.

Before that, 1924 is the coldest at 0.7c, with a slight easterly flow (few in the way of snow flurries)

1910 offers the most interest. CET day was 2.7c with snow inducing synoptics;

That's the best for the 20th century in my opinion. Not desperately cold but conductive of snow in many areas. The 1940s was particularly bad for cold bonfire nights.

Whoever says anything about the 5th of November remembering it frequently being cold is not remembering them correctly.

Edited November 1, 2011 by Optimus Prime

[Backtrack]

Another mild bonfire night than. Good forecast.

Last time we had a cold and frosty Bonfire night for England was back in 1988 under an inversion high. CET for that day was 2.6c.

Before that, 1924 is the coldest at 0.7c, with a slight easterly flow (few in the way of snow flurries)

1910 offers the most interest. CET day was 2.7c with snow inducing synoptics;

That's the best for the 20th century in my opinion. Not desperately cold but conductive of snow in many areas. The 1940s was particularly bad for cold bonfire nights.

Whoever says anything about the 5th of November remembering it frequently being cold is not remembering them correctly.

Thanks a lot

Yep, not very often it's cold on bonfire night, would be nice if it was.

[Zenarcher]

Good forecast Looking good for here.

[Backtrack]

Good forecast Looking good for here.

Thanks Sea.

Yes, looking very clear, but cold for your location, especially with that Northerly wind!

[damianslaw]

Yes Bonfire Night on average tends to bring very mild damp conditions from memory. Early Nov is a notoriously mild period of the year when the atlantic is normally in control of things.

This coming year, well it could be a rainfest for much of england and wales, more so southern and eastern parts under a stiff NE breeze which will make for rather miserable conditions it has to be said.

Things have time to change but the BBC seem fairly confident in this synoptic for bonfire night. Scotland and N Ireland should stay dry with some cooler conditions nothing particularly cold but generally much more seasonal.

The last three bonfire nights have been preety mild and lacklustre.

[Backtrack]

My memory of Bonfire Night is damp, always wet and pretty misty, always overcast.

[ZONE 51]

Very Good forecast, i would rather it not to wet until late down here, many events would move to another day if it was to wet as has been done before but not before everyones turned up that does not know! still can change a bit but yes it does look wet down this way at least. rather a good old cold frosty evening! but dry is the main theme we want!

imagine snow on bonfire night, i cant remember ever experiencing it on the night.

Edited November 2, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Backtrack]

Thanks for the kind comments.

4:13am!? Wow. Can't wait to see what time you stay up till when it's snowing!

[Nick B]

A well presented and very useful forecast - thanks Backtrack!

Anything remotely close to being frosty on past Bonfire nights is going to be remembered as cold, since it often involves being stood around outside without moving much. The same also applies if the humidity is up a little.

I'll take cloudy, slightly breezy and chance of a light shower as a green light for this year, at least for the East Midlands. Sorry for those on the south coast if it's wet, but hopefully many of you may dodge the showers (unless things change in the outlook).

Have fun and play safely now, everyone.

[Backtrack]

A well presented and very useful forecast - thanks Backtrack!

Anything remotely close to being frosty on past Bonfire nights is going to be remembered as cold, since it often involves being stood around outside without moving much. The same also applies if the humidity is up a little.

I'll take cloudy, slightly breezy and chance of a light shower as a green light for this year, at least for the East Midlands. Sorry for those on the south coast if it's wet, but hopefully many of you may dodge the showers (unless things change in the outlook).

Have fun and play safely now, everyone.

Thank you Nick. Appreciate it.

[Backtrack]

Hi guys,

A quick update from me:

It seems that the GFS has shunted the low slightly further North East than on the day when I posted. As a result, the precipitation too has also shunted North East. So unfortunately for some of the South East, it's looking like a fairly wet picture. Elsewhere it's game on, looking fine. Dry for most

As you can see, much of South East England is likely to see some rain during the night.

[stewfox]

Hi guys,

A quick update from me:

It seems that the GFS has shunted the low slightly further North East than on the day when I posted. As a result, the precipitation too has also shunted North East. So unfortunately for some of the South East, it's looking like a fairly wet picture. Elsewhere it's game on, looking fine. Dry for most

As you can see, much of South East England is likely to see some rain during the night.

Looks like the original forcast was more accurate. A shunt back. Looks like most of the rain now will effect a more limited region to the SE, not my area so Fire works on

Edited November 5, 2011 by stewfox

[wimblettben]

Ah, this is all good news for me then!

Mind you here we look to be pretty close to that 0.15mm line.

[Backtrack]

Looks like the original forcast was more accurate. A shunt back. Looks like most of the rain now will effect a more limited region to the SE, not my area so Fire works on

Bloody GFS can't make it's mind up can it! Inaccurate at T+24 hours. Load of rubbish.

Final chart... what a difference. Shows that this model is performing poorly atm.

[Snowmad79]

Bloody GFS can't make it's mind up can it! Inaccurate at T+24 hours. Load of rubbish.

Final chart... what a difference. Shows that this model is performing poorly atm.

LOL, least your main forcast was accurate enough for the important parts of the UK, namely the north . Bout time the SE had a soaking while we enjoy the cool sunshine in the NW.

[johnholmes]

Bloody GFS can't make it's mind up can it! Inaccurate at T+24 hours. Load of rubbish.

Final chart... what a difference. Shows that this model is performing poorly atm.

possibly or more likely it shows that predicting an isobar pattern is easier than predicting where rain falls, how much and when?

Its has always been the same, I've often enough commented about it. Not just GFS, UK Met precipitation forecasts are almost as bad at times.

[Bluebreezer54]

A valiant attempt there Backtrack and correct for much of the country from what I can see. Here in the South East I was still predicting rain or showers for much of today and evening as recently as recently as 18 hours ago. Egg on face time !

[Backtrack]

possibly or more likely it shows that predicting an isobar pattern is easier than predicting where rain falls, how much and when?

Its has always been the same, I've often enough commented about it. Not just GFS, UK Met precipitation forecasts are almost as bad at times.

They seemed to work fine at 5 days out when Walkers were running that promotion about guessing where it would rain :lol:

I guess it's all about where the pressure will center itself, which can prove tricky?

A valiant attempt there Backtrack and correct for much of the country from what I can see. Here in the South East I was still predicting rain or showers for much of today and evening as recently as recently as 18 hours ago. Egg on face time !

Thanks mate, I was hoping it would be sort of accurate

[TonyH]

I went for mostly dry for most inland parts for tonight, when I did my week's forecast last weekend. The models were showing ridging/ Col set ups at that stage which in the event was spot on.

By mid week though, there was much more an emphasis on rain for central and eastern parts, which did not come to much, so a tricky one to call for you Backtrack!

Edited November 5, 2011 by Tonyh