Convective weather - 2nd-3rd November 2011

[ZONE 51]

Starting a topic early as there is a risk of some active weather as early as wednesday eve/night along the cold front, with an unstable air mass following on behind, creating the potential for thunderstorms, these arriving overnight potentially into the SouthWest and moving inland into thursday morning, with this convective activity becoming more widespread lasting into the night time and through friday.

I have included some charts to show the unstable air, the cold front could be quite active with some very heavy downpours, not to sure about thundery at this stage though!

[Jane Louise]

Hi ESS you forgot to point the arrows to my area :winky:

[Coast]

Still a low level chance of something Thursday and later on Friday according to GFS:

Maybe in the SW according to HiRLAM:

[Robbie Garrett]

I have looked at the forecast for this Friday, and it says we are going to have a Thunderstorm across the south east.

Does anybody know what time this will come through? I need to fly this Friday for about 2hrs max, up to 2,500ft so I can complete my skills test and get my license.

Will 1030-1200am be enough or isit a washout?

Regards,

Robbie

[Coast]

More hints that there may be something?

[Nick F]

Funny how come late October and early November we get slow-moving troughs arriving to the west with moist southerly flows like the second half of this week - it would bring heat and humidity plus some interesting storm set-ups in the summer - but they seem to be occuring less and less these synoptic set-ups in summer!

Looks like more southerlies developing later next week too

[Coast]

Will 1030-1200am be enough or isit a washout?

Still too far out to say and I guess we won't know until the radar watching starts a few hours beforehand. I'd say at this early point, you might get 30/70 chance of convective weather and turbulence:

[Chris K]

Met Office warning has been issued:

Issued at - 02 Nov 2011, 11:37

Valid from - 03 Nov 2011, 00:00

Valid to - 03 Nov 2011, 23:59

Heavy and locally thundery rain is expected at times during Thursday. Whilst southwest England and south Wales are at risk throughout, over central southern England and the Midlands the main risk period is the late afternoon and evening. The public should be aware that as a result of the heavy rain there could be standing water issues that lead to some local travel disruption.

The public are advised to take extra care, further information and advice can be found here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/links.html

[Jane Louise]

Met Office warning has been issued:

Issued at - 02 Nov 2011, 11:37

Valid from - 03 Nov 2011, 00:00

Valid to - 03 Nov 2011, 23:59

Heavy and locally thundery rain is expected at times during Thursday. Whilst southwest England and south Wales are at risk throughout, over central southern England and the Midlands the main risk period is the late afternoon and evening. The public should be aware that as a result of the heavy rain there could be standing water issues that lead to some local travel disruption.

The public are advised to take extra care, further information and advice can be found here: http://www.metoffice...r/uk/links.html

That's a good start I may get somethin now we shall see though , according to my storm risk , Friday, looks more promising if Thursday dosen't provide :lol:

[Stuart]

Good Luck Jane

[Chris K]

The Bristol and the Gloucestershire area have had some sort of bubble over us all Summer I'm sure! (As well as others frustrated at the lack of storms earlier this year ). I'm hoping to see something more than a few flashes in the distance, and like you said we'll just have to see!

Would be nice to see something before this supposed "SIBERIAN FREEZE" floods us later this month haha ...even if it is just a short pulse type thunderstorm!

[Jane Louise]

The Bristol and the Gloucestershire area have had some sort of bubble over us all Summer I'm sure! (As well as others frustrated at the lack of storms earlier this year ). I'm hoping to see something more than a few flashes in the distance, and like you said we'll just have to see!

Would be nice to see something before this supposed "SIBERIAN FREEZE" floods us later this month haha ...even if it is just a short pulse type thunderstorm!

Yes, Apparently Bristol and Glos do quite well in the Autumn for storms. 5 years ago was the last Autumn storm I witnessed in Glos.But, now I have moved, which is near to the Severn I may have more luck! :lol:

Good Luck Jane

Thank you Stuart :winky: everything crossed as per usual.

[SteveB]

The showers last week produced a nice little storm, a few flashes & bangs coupled with heavy rain, better than anything I have seen in the Spring & Summer over the last 5yrs.

Maybe a chance to see another storm in the next couple of days.

One things for sure, its certainly nice to see some rain, last month was another dryish month only producing 42mm

[Coast]

Well I'm looking to Friday for the best chances. Here is a GFS based CAPE forecast - one of the factors that may help:

[Costa Del Fal]

Tomorrow and Friday still looking particularly interesting for the SW, Wales, Midlands and parts of SE England. :D Quite looking forward to this one as there are some very decent storm ingredients considering its November! We have some good Shear, excellent Equilibrium Level temperatures, Very good Lapse rates etc.

[Raidan]

Looking at some satellite images and other charts maybe just maybe we could see something,Not going to get excited just yet though as things have a tendency to change and nothing happens,Best we just wait to see how things pan out.

Interesting images of thunderstorm development here http://www.nwcsaf.org/

[Coast]

ESTOFEX's map for today shows it coming up form the SW and starting to impinge on Cornwall through to tomorrow morning when the current forecast ends:

Cornwall and Devon coasts the ones to watch first?

[Raidan]

Strange my profile pic changed on it's own i did't change it??? Anyway just heard on radio that lively possibly thundery weather could be on its way during tomorrow,thats boosted my excitement,just a little bit lol.

[Harry]

Too much to ask that I get a storm on my birthday then!

To cap it off, I'm off up to Alton Towers Friday-Sunday...probably bring three days of thunderstorms across the SE this weekend lol

[snowfall09]

Some strange looking clouds this afternoon in Folkestone

[Staffordshire]

Well your not going to get anythig up here!

Too much to ask that I get a storm on my birthday then!

To cap it off, I'm off up to Alton Towers Friday-Sunday...probably bring three days of thunderstorms across the SE this weekend lol

[wimblettben]

Hopefull that we will get something actually worth while from this but I highly doubt it.

If I was the Met Office I would seriously consider moving that warning to Northeast England, as every time we are forecasted storms thats where they alway's seem to occour instead!

[Coast]

Hopefull that we will get something actually worth while from this but I highly doubt it.

On current form you may be in the interesting part of the world for anything that kicks off. Everything I've seen so far points to South coast possibilities, I'm just not sure how far North and East it will get if at all. Still, fingers crossed eh?

[Purplepixii]

Too much to ask that I get a storm on my birthday then!

Have a great day Harry (whenever it is)

[Stormyking]

Sweet, something to watch! looks like anywhere alone the South West, South Coast and South East have a chance of something interesting over the next few days! Looks like I could in a decent area again, I hope so

Jane Ill send you a storm as well