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Convective weather - 2nd-3rd November 2011


ZONE 51

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Yeah, but is it anything sufficient for the South East??

What time tomorrow will I be able to take the skills test? I have the aicraft all day, but slightly confused by all the forecasts saying rain/thunder with sunny intervals clearing after early morning rain.

Need 2hrs to make or break!

Anything that is around should be at a higher level than you are flying at I think, you should be alright

21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_LL-TURBULENCE-STANDARD_48.gif

21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_48.gif?{ts%20

eutball24.gif

What's all this going on around Cherbourg and heading into the Channel?

post-6667-0-68190100-1320320913.jpg

webcam: http://www.viewsurf....lle_-_Port.html

post-6667-0-68190100-1320320913_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

Another entresting forecast but in brum as ever i think we gona mis out.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

And, heres comes some rain.... no thunder yet lol I'm looking towards 3pm today and Friday is looking even better! Wouldn't it be lovely to have 2 days of storms here :whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

And, heres comes some rain.... no thunder yet lol I'm looking towards 3pm today and Friday is looking even better! Wouldn't it be lovely to have 2 days of storms here :whistling:

Its looking VERY black to the south!

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Just had a monster of all downpours lasting the best part of half an hour. No thunder but some hail mixed in and roads have turned to rivers, gutters overflowing and large puddles on the lawn.

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Just checked my car windows were closed :) That looks nasty what is moving up..

Cotsworlds have vanished in the rain

Edited by Lynxus
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Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

Stayed up until 6 this morning just in case things started early,Have had some rain but nothing else,Fingers crossed but in a way i know im going to be disappointed.

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Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)

And, heres comes some rain.... no thunder yet lol I'm looking towards 3pm today and Friday is looking even better! Wouldn't it be lovely to have 2 days of storms here :whistling:

You know what they say...

Wait all year for a storm and 2 come along at one. :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

Its looking VERY black to the south!

I hope it comes my way lol Just looked on the map and you're to the East of me...now which way will it drift? :whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Cats and Dogs at the moment. Nothing more though :(

I am assuming we are all looking for stuff to appear behind the main blob at the moment?

Ie: convective cells to pop up?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

All looks encouraging, direction of motion etc about right for some action later (or maybe sooner?). Looks even better down in the middle of France, I wonder if it might wander this way?

post-6667-0-97228100-1320322967.jpg

LOC_20111103_0900.png

post-6667-0-97228100-1320322967_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

Awww, that heavy batch of rain hit Cheltenham where ma daughter is. She always gets it all but not me lol

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

looking good for some torrential rain in my area in a couple or so hours time! As far as storms for the west midlands are concerned, the jury is still out

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

looking good for some torrential rain in my area in a couple or so hours time! As far as storms for the west midlands are concerned, the jury is still out

I think the jury is out in most cases to be honest aj!

Such a complex mess with all sorts of airmasses intermingling, bucket loads of moisture, wind shear...estofex I think have probably called it right by engulfing much of the UK in the level 1 risk as I personally am finding it difficult to pin any particular areas down.

GFS is keen to keep any severe rainfall events around the coasts, including Irish Sea and North Sea. UKMO more inclined to give more action incorporating the SE tonight yay (which GFS is not having any of - precip charts in stark contradiction to their own storm risk/cape charts).

I think if you are in England, Wales or Northern Ireland you stand a reasonable chance at something electric, either in the form of convective cells/clusters or embedded within more intense frontal activity.

If I had a magic wand and could send myself anywhere in an instant within the next hour, I'd probably stay put in London/SE as I really couldn't pick anywhere favourable tbh, despite the consensus being for SW England/Wales and NI to be favourable.

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Its frustrating when some sites say one thing and others say another i never know which ones to go with lol.

This game is (IMO) much less a science, more an Art.

I personally would keep a general eye on the sites to check that there is still a risk of some sorts, then good old fashioned radar watching and sky gazing :D

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

I hope the area of heavy downpours south of here doesn't slide east or fizzle out, in dire need of exciting weather/heavy rain here.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

This game is (IMO) much less a science, more an Art.

throwing%20dice.jpg

:rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

We've had a bit of heavy rain but thats it, and it now looks very dark to the N/NE as it moves off.

Hmmm...Is there much else directing itself towards Bristol today? Still cant load charts up :(

Looks like the predicted batch tonight will miss me again... it'll be just a bit too far east for me if they are predicting right.

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

Just looked at ukmo warning for wm and the yellow rain warning has gone but it's just starting to rain.

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Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

Im not sure much is going to happen, otherwise wouldn't it have started by now? you never know though I guess something could still happen! Not much of a confidence boost that it will if the warnings are slowly being removed!

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

hmm, interesting, 2 distinct rumbles of distant thunder heard to my south...Yep, and again, definitely thunder

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