Model Output Discussion - Early November Onwards

[ITSY]

yup - the cold not quite so extreme as the 06Z FI but certainly with more potential and certainly cold. still way too for out to get excited about (even though most are - including myself!) but if something like that were to come off it would certainly raise a few eyebrows

[summer blizzard]

I actually think that the ECWMF12z run was a positive one in that it transfers the mean trough much further west allowing high pressure to have much more of an influence. After day 10 it is very likely that we would see a cold spell.

GFS18z is very similar to the GFS12z in that it sends the Jet Stream on a much more southerly track with height rises across Greenland however it again is at odds with the ECWMF in regards to the position of the mean trough.

[rich1]

Have learned to be wary of the term 'pattern reset' as its a favourite term of what I prefer to know as the 'faux cold' snobs, but in this instance, apart from a Bartlett High which just edges out this for the potential of incessant atlantic rain, this is just about the worst pattern out there for cold late autumn/winter weather and a reset is what is needed. Good in summer, useless now. The Euro high is a good for nothing nuisance and this is a stubborn one. it will go in the end and are some charts which hint at that happening albeit in the land of nod/later in the month as the jet pushes a bit further south and threatens to boot the HP in to touch

Edited November 4, 2011 by Paul
Leave the childish comments out please

[Duane S.]

GFS is starting to hint more and more at a pattern changer. Deep FI yes it may be but there have been tentitive signs for a while now and crucially it has started to shift some of the energy into the southern arm which will be required if we want heights to properly build to the NW. It still all seems a week or so too early to me but definintely in line with my thoughts of where we are heading into late Nov / early Dec. In the meantime we are stuck with this stubborn wet and mild pattern for the short-term and when the colder weather does arrive I certainly don't expect one as extreme as last year's but still very cold nevertheless.

[Isolated Frost]

All this on deep fi and fi... I love Gibby's reports as they usually summarise what's happening in the next few days, something of which mod folk seem to forget when searching for a +384 pattern change...

A notably less mild track of air moves in from today in the west to Sunday (where it's clears for more Tm airstreams)- uppers stay above average for SE and E England for the whole of this 2-day period, but they are average or slightly below in Scotland, NW England, Wales and NI.

Saturday brings in a northerly flow, turning north-easterly and maybe easterly as the low from the bay of biscay moves in from the sw. Expect maxima to be quite low on the east coast on Saturday and Sunday.

Monday sees that subtropical ridge move in temporarily- giving us a taster of high pressure once more. There are very mild upper associated with the hp, and maxima should generally be quite high on Sunday/Monday (away from the east coast, as it leaves a track of easterlies), but under clear skies, it could prove quite cool and maybe frosty, especially in the midlands most likely.

Tuesday sees easterlies change to south-easterlies with very mild uppers. So low cloud and drizzle for the east coast, maybe penetrating inland, but very warm and sunny maybe for the west. A pulse of cooler air moves in from the south as we take a S'ly flow on Wednesday, with temperatures generally average and cloud cover varying.

Less mild uppers from the west, associated with a low to the SW (again!) could give a more average day in Ireland on Thursday, but mild southerlies seem the aim of the game for the majority. Friday is similar in this regard.

FI is generally below average but would be very cloud I imagine with lows regularly to the east and south of us, and heights high to our north. Cloudy north-easterlies and easterlies with some wintry showers, mild southerlies with cloud and sun at times, and occasionally lows to our west and south and maybe east causing a mumbo-jumbo of systems creating probably a cloudy outlook.

Mild with less mild intervals is the summary of the hi-res output on the 0z GFS.

[KTtom]

All this on deep fi and fi... I love Gibby's reports as they usually summarise what's happening in the next few days, something of which mod folk seem to forget when searching for a +384 pattern change...

Mild with less mild intervals is the summary of the hi-res output on the 0z GFS.

T+384 looks interesting though

[Gibby]

Good morning. Suffering from a very heavy cold at the moment so just a short look at the 00zs from me today. Incidentally, I am going for two weeks hols overseas from the weekend so no usual reports from me until the 22nd after today. I will have my IPad with me so if I can get a decent wifi signal at my hotel I will give brief summaries in the mornings.

GFS today looks distinctly unsettled throughout its run. With a few drier days early next week Low pressure advances in from the Atlantic and is a frequent visitor to our shores thereafter, especially for western areas. With high pressure forming over Greenland cold air is beginning to present itself up to the NW but on this run it stays away from the UK with the weather continuing wet at times.

The GFS Ensembles once more this morning paint a bleak picture for cold lovers with the ensemble mean for London maintained well above normal with occasional rain at times and temperatures staying on the warm side.

UKMO looks identical to last night which after a quieter and slightly cooler few days brings a return to a moderate and mild Southerly flow by midweek.

ECM finally brings some exceptionally mild air North late in its run with temperatures in excess of 15C for many later next week with winds originating from an area near the Canaries. There would be some rain and wind at imes in the West especially.

In summary today there are few changes to speak of. The weather looks like staying mild or very mild everywhere with rain at times, heaviest and most frequent in the West.

[Isolated Frost]

T+384 looks interesting though

lol- I guess with the polar front so southwards and a easterly pattern from Britain to Newfoundland, there will be some excitement. subtropical ridge is still north though and has no indication of faltering southwards with the subtropical jet (itcz).

mid-latitude cell quite squeezed and hilariously un-potent, charts like this would probably give Britain winters of extreme cold, but as with the atmospherical circulation, charts like this are unfortunately seldom found and can only be experienced whilst exhuming a whole of lot of drugs to come to life.

Watch where the mid-latitude cell moves though, because if heights continue to rise between 60n and 80n, and signs of a southerly tracking jet, with a continued northern periphery 'faux easterly' pattern for UK continue, a mid-latitude cell like this would make last Nov look like a doddle. VERY, VERY unlikely though.

[Frosty.]

When you say mild do you mean around average for the time of year? The average for around here is around 11/12 degrees c. Going by the GFS that looks like what we are looking at.

I expect some moderation to the mild weather we are having with temps dipping to closer to average of 12c at this time of year and then increasing mild through the course of next week with a renewed S'ly airflow and potential for another very mild flow as latest Ecm shows...so the record warm october is now being followed by an extremely mild start to november but some less mild air in the coming days then milder again. I'm looking forward to being able to use the word cold in my updates as i'm sick and tired of saying mild..

[mushymanrob]

i always thought winter as such arrived around mid december, when often a pattern change ensued and colder weather becomes dominant. viewing this mornings runs i have no reason the expect a downturn in temps anytime soon. imho whats suggested for the next ten days or so is pretty normal, those looking for cold...be patient.

[November13]

i always thought winter as such arrived around mid december, when often a pattern change ensued and colder weather becomes dominant. viewing this mornings runs i have no reason the expect a downturn in temps anytime soon. imho whats suggested for the next ten days or so is pretty normal, those looking for cold...be patient.

Partly true but winter arrives in Scotland in mid November not mid December. From my not perfect memory I always remember getting our first snows in November and also making ice runs on the pavement. The last 20 years or so November has become more like Autumn but it wasn't always the case. Apart from last year which was unusual in the current cycle November snow has now become as rare as hens teeth. Go back 20 years and there was at least 2 or 3 days of snow in November and at least a week of frost. The reason I remember is partly my Birthday 13th November and my dad telling me there was a severe snow storm the day I was born 1969. December maybe the official start of winter but it's a bit like saying March is Spring and not expecting snow. We get some of our worst snow in March in Scotland.

[shedhead]

i always thought winter as such arrived around mid december, when often a pattern change ensued and colder weather becomes dominant. viewing this mornings runs i have no reason the expect a downturn in temps anytime soon. imho whats suggested for the next ten days or so is pretty normal, those looking for cold...be patient.

Agreed, once again plenty of late FI eye candy, but to my mind we are no nearer to seeing a pattern change than we were yesterday, the day before, or the day before that. GFS's default pattern appears to be northern blocking post T+240hrs, so until we see it come into the higher res part of the run it's simply not worth considering as a viable evolution IMHO.

[danm]

i always thought winter as such arrived around mid december, when often a pattern change ensued and colder weather becomes dominant. viewing this mornings runs i have no reason the expect a downturn in temps anytime soon. imho whats suggested for the next ten days or so is pretty normal, those looking for cold...be patient.

Agreed. I think we were a little spoiled last year with how early the cold weather arrived. It was unusually early. Most years I never expect to see cold enough weather for snow until at least December, so not too downhearted at the lack of cold at the moment.

[ICETAB]

Agreed, once again plenty of late FI eye candy, but to my mind we are no nearer to seeing a pattern change than we were yesterday, the day before, or the day before that. GFS's default pattern appears to be northern blocking post T+240hrs, so until we see it come into the higher res part of the run it's simply not worth considering as a viable evolution IMHO.

I disagree with your view. You are correct in saying that FI is what it says on the tin, however it is about picking up trends and GFS has been consistently leaning towards northern blocking in its later timeframes for the past 3 days at least. I think it might just be on to something. I personally believe that we will be in our first cold spell from the 18th November. We may not see widespread snow, but it will feel like winter everywhere.

ECM does not go out far enough to compare against the GFS.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I disagree with your view. You are correct in saying that FI is what it says on the tin, however it is about picking up trends and GFS has been consistently leaning towards northern blocking in its later timeframes for the past 3 days at least. I think it might just be on to something. I personally believe that we will be in our first cold spell from the 18th November. We may not see widespread snow, but it will feel like winter everywhere.

ECM does not go out far enough to compare against the GFS.

The chap on TWO (MVH) has access to the ECM 32 day charts. From what he is saying it shows a split November, similar to last year and is backing up what the GFS is showing in FI.

He also says that it has been fairly good at latching on to trends this year.

Could we be seeing the start of a shift to colder weather? The 6z FI will be interesting. Be nice to start to get some of the Northern Blocking into early FI, around 180-240ish.

[shedhead]

I disagree with your view. You are correct in saying that FI is what it says on the tin, however it is about picking up trends and GFS has been consistently leaning towards northern blocking in its later timeframes for the past 3 days at least. I think it might just be on to something. I personally believe that we will be in our first cold spell from the 18th November. We may not see widespread snow, but it will feel like winter everywhere. ECM does not go out far enough to compare against the GFS.

That is of course your perogative.. I will however remind you of this post next Friday morning, when any northern blocking is still only being progged beyond T+192hrs.

Edit: The perils of following FI well illustrated across just 6hrs between the 00 and 06 GFS runs. N blocking, there it was, gone!

Edited November 4, 2011 by shedhead

[FreezingFog]

Partly true but winter arrives in Scotland in mid November not mid December. From my not perfect memory I always remember getting our first snows in November and also making ice runs on the pavement. The last 20 years or so November has become more like Autumn but it wasn't always the case. Apart from last year which was unusual in the current cycle November snow has now become as rare as hens teeth. Go back 20 years and there was at least 2 or 3 days of snow in November and at least a week of frost. The reason I remember is partly my Birthday 13th November and my dad telling me there was a severe snow storm the day I was born 1969. December maybe the official start of winter but it's a bit like saying March is Spring and not expecting snow. We get some of our worst snow in March in Scotland.

[kold weather]

06z GFS keeps us in a very southerly dominated patern with LP taking close approaches to the UK, which would probably result in several more attacks from the south of troughs and fronts over the next couple of weeks.

Would be a very mild first half to the month if it came off, could well be on track for something close to the record IF that came off...

[November13]

Excellent how did you get this I couldn't find historical data?

[nick sussex]

Good agreement between the the ECM 00hrs and GFS 06hrs run upto 240hrs in terms of the overall pattern.

Ordinarily I'm very dubious of taking output at face value past 168hrs but it does seem like a plausible evolution with that slow moving trough close to the UK and some pressure rises to the north.

The next question is how to get from there to something colder? I think it will take some time as shortwaves are likely to keep trying to move in and its a case of whether we'll see a trigger shortwave diving se into southern Europe, there is no quick way to cold given the pattern but there is a chance that things could evolve more favourably if we do indeed see those 240hrs charts surviving into the near term.

Edited November 4, 2011 by nick sussex

[cyclonic happiness]

06z GFS keeps us in a very southerly dominated patern with LP taking close approaches to the UK, which would probably result in several more attacks from the south of troughs and fronts over the next couple of weeks.

Would be a very mild first half to the month if it came off, could well be on track for something close to the record IF that came off...

Wasn't last november a record warm start too? hmmmmm? Edited November 4, 2011 by cyclonic happiness

[rich1]

06z GFS keeps us in a very southerly dominated patern with LP taking close approaches to the UK, which would probably result in several more attacks from the south of troughs and fronts over the next couple of weeks.

Would be a very mild first half to the month if it came off, could well be on track for something close to the record IF that came off...

The pattern is a bit stuck presently though actually after today its above normal in many places but not exceptionally so, from checking the bbc temps and the daytime charted temps it seems to vary between 6-10 in central northern scotland and 11-14 or so in the south. 11-12 is about average for the time of year. Down south this is offset a bit with milder nights being a persistent feature though in the north there is the potential for some frost in northern hillier regions to begin with. Its not quite 1994 territory at the moment however though certainly it looks again to be a mild first half to the month

do think its better if we have to have this, to have it now and not in December. Depending on the track of the HP out east, a southerly wind for a while has a bit more chance to in time mutate in to something more favourable than say a 1998 style rampant Southwesterly. That chart from 26 December 1998 which can be found posted and in the History forums and i think on the winter threads is the type which is worse than we have now because that can stay for months on end when the Atlantic is super fired up [a record El nino that year]. Compared to that its relatively benign in the atlantic area and actually has been for a while, one thing I remember a lot from my youth in the 90's especially is the isobar charts on the atlantic being noticeably tight with a roaring jet and a continuous HP belt stretching from Florida across the Atlantic and right through Southern Europe with the UK being ravaged for weeks by violent windstorms and deep depressions. Seemed to happen a lot less frequently these days than it does now, and it really isnt in evidence at this time. Hopefully that trend wont be bucked and come later in the month things reposition themselves better

Edited November 4, 2011 by rich1

[November13]

Wasn't last november a record warm start too? hmmmmm?

Not anything like this mild (See local weather for Polmont Scotland)

Averages\Extremes for day :03 2011 Nov

------------------------------------------------------------

Average temperature = 12.3°C

Averages\Extremes for day :03 Nov 2010

------------------------------------------------------------

Average temperature = 7.5°C

That's nearly 5c warmer this year!!

[shedhead]

Wasn't last november a record warm start too? hmmmmm?

Well it was certainly very mild here, but things already looked a good deal colder not far to our north and east. Scandi also had a pretty decent snow cover, which had been in place since well before the end of Oct and it certainly wasn't 16c in W Norway as it is today. Yesterday in fact Bergen max'ed out at 18c!! It's perhaps also worth adding that IF the latest GFS run verifies 80-90% of Scandi will still be as green as 'O'Rafferty's Motor Car' come the last 3rd of the month - that's 40 shades of green by the way for those to young to remember the song!

Edited November 4, 2011 by shedhead

[November13]

And what's even weirder. I felt that the start of November 2010 was extremely mild at the time. Now I would kill for a 5c lower average than today.