Model Output Discussion - Early November Onwards

[FreezingFog]

Excellent how did you get this I couldn't find historical data?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html

Old charts all the way back to 1871

[weathe20]

Not anything like this mild (See local weather for Polmont Scotland)

Averages\Extremes for day :03 2011 Nov

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Average temperature = 12.3°C

Averages\Extremes for day :03 Nov 2010

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Average temperature = 7.5°C

That's nearly 5c warmer this year!!

It was record breaking warm temperatures in November in Southern England, much milder than now.

[Polar Maritime]

For those who think this current mild weather is some indicator we are in for a similar theme this winter read this article. http://www.wiseweath...o.uk/id135.html

Scroll down to November 4th 2010, a year ago today, one of the warmest November nights for 40 years.

Edited November 4, 2011 by snowrob

[Radiating Dendrite]

The ensembles look interesting.

An increasing number now going colder in FI.

Trend emerging??

[shedhead]

For those who think this current mild weather is some indicator we are in for a similar theme this winter read this article. http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id135.html Scroll down to November 4th 2010, a year ago today, one of the warmest November nights ever.

I'm not sure anyone is suggesting that just because it's mild here now we are in for a mild Winter. But one look at the charts from the 1st half of last Nov show we were pretty much on the southern edge of the mild, indeed even Scotland was colder, this year however any cold air is (and looks set to remain) bottled up a very long way north and east. So as much as a mild start does not guarantee a mild winter, neither does the current 'similar' set up here guarantee we are going to swing cold from mid month as we did last year. Far from it in fact. Edited November 4, 2011 by shedhead

[chionomaniac]

The ensembles look interesting.

An increasing number now going colder in FI.

Trend emerging??

Forgive me for failing to see this trend!

[Uncle_Barty]

That is of course your perogative.. I will however remind you of this post next Friday morning, when any northern blocking is still only being progged beyond T+192hrs.

Edit: The perils of following FI well illustrated across just 6hrs between the 00 and 06 GFS runs. N blocking, there it was, gone!

Indeed - there is nothing approaching a consistent sign that a pattern change is likely in the near future.

To be honest, IMO talk of a major change in the 2nd half of this month to cold is nothing more than hopecasting as there is nothing in the teleconnections I've looked at to suggest it.

Not saying it's not going to happen, of course, (it would be hopecasting on my part to say that December will be mild as it seems locked in), but until there is a consistent sign of a change in the upper air patterns across the models and from run to run, then it's as you were I'm afraid.

[Weather Boy]

Forgive me for failing to see this trend!

I agree. It seems to me that the marginal decrease in temperature in the ensembles over time is simply due to the fact the as a generality you would expect temps to fall during the course of the month due to the changing seasons.

It is very unlikely that the weather will not be marginally colder towards the end of the month for this reason, and I think the ensembles are reflecting that.

[Richie V]

Indeed - there is nothing approaching a consistent sign that a pattern change is likely in the near future.

To be honest, IMO talk of a major change in the 2nd half of this month to cold is nothing more than hopecasting as there is nothing in the teleconnections I've looked at to suggest it.

Not saying it's not going to happen, of course, (it would be hopecasting on my part to say that December will be mild as it seems locked in), but until there is a consistent sign of a change in the upper air patterns across the models and from run to run, then it's as you were I'm afraid.

Well said, and the meto seem to think theres no immidiate chance of anything cold so to speak.

"UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Nov 2011 to Saturday 3 Dec 2011:

The first part of the period shows indications of temperatures remaining above normal, and rainfall amounts staying below average. However, amounts of sunshine look limited across the bulk of the country. Towards the end of November and into the start of December, temperatures are likely to return near to normal for the time of year, with rainfall and sunshine amounts closer to average too.

Updated: 1205 on Fri 4 Nov 2011"

This says to me there will be a gradual erroding of the block out east and a return to a fairly strong zonal pattern.

Not that it counts for anything but the way I see it is that we've not been this far away from cold since the winter months of the 90's.

I feel theres going to be many heartbroken members in here in the next 10 weeks or so!

Ric

[Radiating Dendrite]

Forgive me for failing to see this trend!

There are a few now dropping down to -5 hpa.

This was not happening previously, all staying above 0c.

[November13]

It was record breaking warm temperatures in November in Southern England, much milder than now.

Well just goes to show the weather up here is totally different sometimes. Our November was average or below for 2010 then very below in the last quarter.

[ribster]

That is of course your perogative.. I will however remind you of this post next Friday morning, when any northern blocking is still only being progged beyond T+192hrs.

Edit: The perils of following FI well illustrated across just 6hrs between the 00 and 06 GFS runs. N blocking, there it was, gone!

First of all you need to compare todays 06z with tomorrows 06z, not consecutive runs, as more often than not you will see marked differences between runs on the same day. To use that as an illustration to support your view is folly in itself. And it's not just you, but can we stop with the 'don't waste your time on FI', 'don't believe FI' etc etc.

Edited November 4, 2011 by Paul
This post is all a bit close to the wire in terms of it's tone, but have edited only one part out. Please try to keep things more civil though.

[chionomaniac]

There are a few now dropping down to -5 hpa.

This was not happening previously, all staying above 0c.

All I can say is this!

[Richie V]

All I can say is this!

Give me the short one please

[Strider]

Unfortunately Meteociel's archive facility doesn't seem to be working for me atm, can anyone else use it?

Anyway I think a degree of patience is required here. Remember, winter doesn't START for several weeks. There's nothing to suggest below average temperatures at present. I feel the first half of November will be very warm (with strong model agreement) with the second half of the month average and wet with slow moving troughs from the Atlantic.

[mushymanrob]

Partly true but winter arrives in Scotland in mid November not mid December. From my not perfect memory I always remember getting our first snows in November and also making ice runs on the pavement. The last 20 years or so November has become more like Autumn but it wasn't always the case. Apart from last year which was unusual in the current cycle November snow has now become as rare as hens teeth. Go back 20 years and there was at least 2 or 3 days of snow in November and at least a week of frost. The reason I remember is partly my Birthday 13th November and my dad telling me there was a severe snow storm the day I was born 1969. December maybe the official start of winter but it's a bit like saying March is Spring and not expecting snow. We get some of our worst snow in March in Scotland.

point taken, i was of course posting a 'imby' post

I disagree with your view. You are correct in saying that FI is what it says on the tin, however it is about picking up trends and GFS has been consistently leaning towards northern blocking in its later timeframes for the past 3 days at least. I think it might just be on to something. I personally believe that we will be in our first cold spell from the 18th November. We may not see widespread snow, but it will feel like winter everywhere.

but the gfs always does that. in summer fi reverts to show a 'hot' scenario, or 'fi tease' as we call it. in winter the gfs in the far reaches of fi reverts all to often to show a cold evolution. its all well and good trying to spot a new trend, but it really is pretty pointless that far out. theres no point in getting up any hopes until something repeatedly is prgged this side of t200, and then only with caution and support from the teleconnections.

[Aaron]

First of all you need to compare todays 06z with tomorrows 06z, not consecutive runs, as more often than not you will see marked differences between runs on the same day. To use that as an illustration to support your view is folly in itself. And it's not just you, but can we stop with the 'don't waste your time on FI', 'don't believe FI' etc etc. As last time I checked it is the model discussion thread, not the how likely is this to come off thread It seems everytime someone mentions FI, they are dismissed out of hand, getting a bit tiresome.

I agree, reading te Model Output Discussion thread can be a bit annoying sometimes!

[shedhead]

First of all you need to compare todays 06z with tomorrows 06z, not consecutive runs, as more often than not you will see marked differences between runs on the same day. To use that as an illustration to support your view is folly in itself. And it's not just you, but can we stop with the 'don't waste your time on FI', 'don't believe FI' etc etc. As last time I checked it is the model discussion thread, not the how likely is this to come off thread It seems everytime someone mentions FI, they are dismissed out of hand, getting a bit tiresome.

I don't think we should forget FI persay, there are times when a trend emerges there that needs to be watched, but those times generally coincide with a 500mb upstream pattern change. That is not currently the case, therefore at this time it is pretty much pointless reading to much into what GFS is showing in the low res part of the run. I take your point about comparing charts from different run times, but it was only done in this instance to highlight the massive swings currently manifesting themselves.

[Rocheydub]

Removed.

Edited November 4, 2011 by Paul
With respect, if you have an issue with a post then please report it.

[Radiating Dendrite]

All I can say is this!

Yes...........but better a glass half full than half empty

I admire all you guys and your grasp of teleconnections, but they are not always right.

[chionomaniac]

First of all you need to compare todays 06z with tomorrows 06z, not consecutive runs, as more often than not you will see marked differences between runs on the same day. To use that as an illustration to support your view is folly in itself. And it's not just you, but can we stop with the 'don't waste your time on FI', 'don't believe FI' etc etc. As last time I checked it is the model discussion thread, not the how likely is this to come off thread It seems everytime someone mentions FI, they are dismissed out of hand, getting a bit tiresome.

I don't believe in JH's motto of comparing one days run to the same time the next. I believe that the most up to date info that is fed into each run will give the latest and probably the most accurate and up to date forecast. After all, it is not as if each run has a different programme that the data is fed into.

Regarding FI, we have had a lot of comments in the last few days whenever a block has been shown believing that that is the most likely outcome. However I always believe that the most likely outcome in FI is the one that has the majority of support from the background teleconnections, the ensembles and consistent cross model agreement. Without this any solution should be treated with caution.

Currently, the favoured FI solution in my opinion would be the waxing and waning of the Scandi ridge with corresponding waxing and waning of the Atlantic trough. The Polar vortex is steadily increasing as the stratosphere cools and the MJO signal is weak and being overridden by stratospheric downwelling. There is no sign currently for a break in these signals.

[Frosty.]

06z GFS keeps us in a very southerly dominated patern with LP taking close approaches to the UK, which would probably result in several more attacks from the south of troughs and fronts over the next couple of weeks.

Would be a very mild first half to the month if it came off, could well be on track for something close to the record IF that came off...

I agree with kold, it is looking like the first half of november will be very mild with temps several degrees above the seasonal average until at least mid month and possibly beyond, I absolutely hate the way the models are shaping up for the next few weeks, it looks mild with more mild followed by more mild..yuck.

[chionomaniac]

Yes...........but better a glass half full than half empty

I admire all you guys and your grasp of teleconnections, but they are not always right.

Ok, looking at it that way - the glass is one tenth full!

[bobbydog]

posted this in the forecast thread, thought i would stick it here-

"people look at the models and say 'no foreseeable cold'. however, we only have to look at how vastly different the model evolutions are at the end of the run. any particular run will be dismissed as FI but people seem to forget that, even though unlikely, they are possible evolutions of the weather, based on the current pattern. also, how many times have we seen the models suddenly drop an idea and go off on a completely different track. all it takes is for an unlikely outlier to become the reality and off we go. last year changed suddenly from no prospects of cold, to 'proper winter'. no-one really can say for sure, but it could quite easily happen again..... "

of course there is the possibility it could get warmer as much as it could colder. or stay the same!

question is, will we be building sandcastles or snowmen?? B)

[shedhead]

I don't believe in JH's motto of comparing one days run to the same time the next. I believe that the most up to date info that is fed into each run will give the latest and probably the most accurate and up to date forecast. After all, it is not as if each run has a different programme that the data is fed into. Regarding FI, we have had a lot of comments in the last few days whenever a block has been shown believing that that is the most likely outcome. However I always believe that the most likely outcome in FI is the one that has the majority of support from the background teleconnections, the ensembles and consistent cross model agreement. Without this any solution should be treated with caution. Currently, the favoured FI solution in my opinion would be the waxing and waning of the Scandi ridge with corresponding waxing and waning of the Atlantic trough. The Polar vortex is steadily increasing as the stratosphere cools and the MJO signal is weak and being overridden by stratospheric downwelling. There is no sign currently for a break in these signals.

Your last para very much represents the bottom line as things currently stand. Still nothing to stop FI being discussed, but hopefully those chasing every faux block post 192hrs will take note of what you have said. Edited November 4, 2011 by shedhead