Forecast And Observation Differences

[Bodhi]

Hi all

Earlier today I noticed the mid trop and surface winds here were both roughly southerlies. This suggested a low off the north west (surface just off southerly) and this was correct. The higher southerlies suggested the whole system was moving north currently indicating to me that the clear gap we are in currently would continue with the front off the west coast staying still in an E-W direction.

However, this evening the surface winds have shifted around to being from the ESE suggesting that a low is now arriving from further south, which is not the case according to any chart. I estimate the wind as I saw it should tell of a low around the south of Ireland.

The wind reading was from the low cumulus this afternoon so it was not being affected too greatly by surface features.

I'd like to know a little more about these sorts of anomlies and their explanantions please.

Cheers

Rich