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3rd/4th November 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports


kold weather

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Indeed KW- should be an interesting band as it moves n/nw. It should intensify a bit (should!) as it crosses the channel and the main stuff should hit the south coast (Hampshire-Kent mainly). I expect rainfall for much of CS England (mainly eastern parts), SE England, East Anglia, the W Mids (again, mainly eastern, but could move west), parts of the E Mids and Yorkshire aswell.

Thunder chances for the south anyone?

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Posted
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Severe Weather events
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire

Latest on Frenchie V2, and it's direction! Anyone with a recent Netweather Radar shot pleaseki?

I'll do this once, just subscribed to NW this evening - it's not expensive and is well worth the money spent in my opinion

post-15355-0-42411600-1320359419_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Strongest precip in the FIRST batch of rainfall/thunder is Eastbourne/Bexhill/Hastings. I expect a few more strong pulses in this area- and some persistent heavy rain for a while, but IOW, Hampshire and E Dorset look to be in the firing lane of some corker showers later on. Plenty of time for these to move differently or even break up.

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Cells over Somerset/Wiltshire region now turning torrential. :D This should occur much much widely later tonight in the West. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

Just started to rain hard here in Beckenham. Popped over the offy a few minutes ago and the guy that works in there knows my weather -freakery.. He said we had a good few crashes and bangs here this afternoon. I missed it all! Covent garden had nothing!!

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

I'll do this once, just subscribed to NW this evening - it's not expensive and is well worth the money spent in my opinion

Thanks, sharing is caring! BUT I agree with you, but not whilst I am paying for my pilots license it aint! ::D

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Ian Ferguson seemed confident of 'lightning, thunder and hail with up to 30-40mm' across a wide area of the southwest and south central. How I hope he is right. Showers look like forming very quickly and moving very slowly tomorrow which should be fun.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl

I doff my cap to those who said this was starting to spin north west earlier, it does indeed look that way. Light rainfall here in NW London has just started, this could be a long night !

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Looks like the band is splitting with the northern part starting to speed up towards the N/NNW whilst the area over France is taking longer. Will all eventually get ejected to ther north its just a matter of time.

In the meantime we've got some small but fairly strong looking showers brewing over the SW still.

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL

We don't need anymore rain here...15mm fell just from one shower today and the roads were flooding quite badly...a low rumble of thunder was heard around 3pm too.

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

I doff my cap to those who said this was starting to spin north west earlier, it does indeed look that way. Light rainfall here in NW London has just started, this could be a long night !

That's what Pilot Training does to you, the Meteorology book I loved working through.

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Posted
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Severe Weather events
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire

Thanks, sharing is caring! BUT I agree with you, but not whilst I am paying for my pilots license it aint! : :D

I agree, maybe you can ask treat yourself when you've passed or ask santa to buy you a subscription for xmas :lol:

Good luck tomorrow!

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Posted
  • Location: North Yorks, prev West Essex
  • Location: North Yorks, prev West Essex

That's what Pilot Training does to you, the Meteorology book I loved working through.

Me too! However that was 30yrs ago when I worked for the then "Aircraft owners and pilots association" and looked after you guy's whilst you took your tests. I also used to map out flights etc and call the met office for weather updates. Loved it.

Back on topic.....................can't see much in the way of convective stuff so far.

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

Yellow Warning of Rain04 Nov 2011, 01:00

rain-yellow.gifYellow Warning of Rain

Valid From: 04 Nov 2011, 01:00

Valid To: 04 Nov 2011, 17:00

Issued at - 03 Nov 2011, 22:41

Valid from - 04 Nov 2011, 01:00

Valid to - 04 Nov 2011, 17:00

An area of heavy and possibly thundery rain will move north across the more central parts of southern England and southeast England during the early hours of Friday. Meanwhile, slow moving, heavy and locally thundery showers are expected to develop more widely during Friday. The public should be aware that as a result of the heavy rain there could be some surface water flooding, leading to local travel disruption.

The public are advised to take extra care, further information and advice can be found here: http://www.metoffice...r/uk/links.html

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

I doff my cap to those who said this was starting to spin north west earlier, it does indeed look that way. Light rainfall here in NW London has just started, this could be a long night !

Agreed BB, a good call by Darren & Isolated Frost, a definite NNW-NW trend in the movement of that western flank, looks like a wave pulsing up along the almost stationary front, might even affect me later on in the night....My eyes though are still drawn to activity further west & South West in Biscay, as I would expect showers & thunderstorms to continue to develop readily during the overnight period to affect SW England, the West Country & the Midlands

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

Agreed BB, a good call by Darren & Isolated Frost, a definite NNW-NW trend in the movement of that western flank, looks like a wave pulsing up along the almost stationary front, might even affect me later on in the night....My eyes though are still drawn to activity further west & South West in Biscay, as I would expect showers & thunderstorms to continue to develop readily during the overnight period to affect SW England, the West Country & the Midlands

Does this mean we still have a risk remaining for something tonight and tomorrow then?
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Does this mean we still have a risk remaining for something tonight and tomorrow then?

Definitely!

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

Agreed BB, a good call by Darren & Isolated Frost, a definite NNW-NW trend in the movement of that western flank, looks like a wave pulsing up along the almost stationary front, might even affect me later on in the night....My eyes though are still drawn to activity further west & South West in Biscay, as I would expect showers & thunderstorms to continue to develop readily during the overnight period to affect SW England, the West Country & the Midlands

Looks interesting in the BoB, looks more like a SuperCell!

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Nice looking MCS coming out of Normandy, strange saying this in November!

Anyway, new Netweather storm forecast from midnight:

Storm & Convective Forecast - Issued 03/11/2011 22:30

Forecast Summary Map

convmap_041111.jpg

Click for full size

Valid: 04/11/2011 00:00 - 05/11/2011 06:00

Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

A deep negatively-tilted long-wave trough to the west of the British Isles extends southeast from Greenland to Iberia/Morocco during the forecast period - driving a deep cyclonic S to SWerly flow across western Europe. At the surface, a deep area of low pressure resides to the NW of the UK, with a slack trough of low pressure across the UK.

... S ENGLAND, S WALES, THE MIDLANDS, E ANGLIA ...

A well modified rPm airmass across the UK, characterised by cold mid-levels and a mild moist boundary layer advecting north beneath, wiil be most unstable across southern Britain during Friday - where richest moisture, warmth and greatest forcing for ascent will exist.

A frontal wave moving north out of France across SE and E England in the early hours, bringing an area of heavy rain, may have thundestorms embedded - with a risk of torrential rain, hail and gusty winds. Then like today, heavy showers around southern and western coast early morning will spread/develop inland across southern England, south Wales, The Midlands and East Anglia during the morning - with an increased risk of thunderstorms developing by lunchtime and continuing into the afternoon. One or more shortwave troughs aloft moving NE will likely organise convection and aid t-storm development. Though deep layer shear will be generally weak, with the risk of organised severe weather less likely than Saturday, some low level shear is indicated towards SE England where surface flow is indicated to be more backed towards the SE - which suggests that a tornado/waterspout cannot be ruled out with more vigorous updrafts. Otherwise, storms maybe accompanied by hail, gusty winds and torrential downpours which may lead to localised flooding. Storms will fade by late evening as CAPE receeds.

Issued by: Nick F - Forecaster for Netweather

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

Woah. Cheeky spin on this bad boy! Maybe so,e crashes and bangs for us a bit after, but Lots of rain for the foreseeable...

Can you imagine if this was August?! Lol :)

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