3rd/4th November 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

[kold weather]

Since things are looking active i thought I'd open up a new thread in time for the next mass of rain arrives from the channel. Also going to have to watch for home brews tomorrow as well.

Plenty to discuss!!

[Isolated Frost]

Indeed KW- should be an interesting band as it moves n/nw. It should intensify a bit (should!) as it crosses the channel and the main stuff should hit the south coast (Hampshire-Kent mainly). I expect rainfall for much of CS England (mainly eastern parts), SE England, East Anglia, the W Mids (again, mainly eastern, but could move west), parts of the E Mids and Yorkshire aswell.

Thunder chances for the south anyone?

[Robbie Garrett]

Latest on Frenchie V2, and it's direction! Anyone with a recent Netweather Radar shot pleaseki?

Edited November 3, 2011 by Robbie Garrett

[kold weather]

Thinking that CS England are going to be for a very wet and possibly thundery night, though I suspect it'll be more wet than thundery!

I'm very interested to see how this band evolves in the next few hours.

[Purplepixii]

Latest on Frenchie V2, and it's direction! Anyone with a recent Netweather Radar shot pleaseki?

I'll do this once, just subscribed to NW this evening - it's not expensive and is well worth the money spent in my opinion

[Isolated Frost]

Strongest precip in the FIRST batch of rainfall/thunder is Eastbourne/Bexhill/Hastings. I expect a few more strong pulses in this area- and some persistent heavy rain for a while, but IOW, Hampshire and E Dorset look to be in the firing lane of some corker showers later on. Plenty of time for these to move differently or even break up.

[kold weather]

Yep IF, and thats indeed what most of the models have been suggesting in the last couple of days, for the strongest showerrs to go up through CS England then continue N/NNW from there.

[Costa Del Fal]

Cells over Somerset/Wiltshire region now turning torrential. This should occur much much widely later tonight in the West.

[Team Jo]

Just started to rain hard here in Beckenham. Popped over the offy a few minutes ago and the guy that works in there knows my weather -freakery.. He said we had a good few crashes and bangs here this afternoon. I missed it all! Covent garden had nothing!!

[Robbie Garrett]

I'll do this once, just subscribed to NW this evening - it's not expensive and is well worth the money spent in my opinion

Thanks, sharing is caring! BUT I agree with you, but not whilst I am paying for my pilots license it aint! :

[MP-R]

Ian Ferguson seemed confident of 'lightning, thunder and hail with up to 30-40mm' across a wide area of the southwest and south central. How I hope he is right. Showers look like forming very quickly and moving very slowly tomorrow which should be fun.

[Bluebreezer54]

I doff my cap to those who said this was starting to spin north west earlier, it does indeed look that way. Light rainfall here in NW London has just started, this could be a long night !

[kold weather]

Looks like the band is splitting with the northern part starting to speed up towards the N/NNW whilst the area over France is taking longer. Will all eventually get ejected to ther north its just a matter of time.

In the meantime we've got some small but fairly strong looking showers brewing over the SW still.

[Neilwozniak]

Whats it looking like for Warwickshire? Whens the bad stuff gunna arrive??

[Marcus_surfer]

We don't need anymore rain here...15mm fell just from one shower today and the roads were flooding quite badly...a low rumble of thunder was heard around 3pm too.

[Robbie Garrett]

I doff my cap to those who said this was starting to spin north west earlier, it does indeed look that way. Light rainfall here in NW London has just started, this could be a long night !

That's what Pilot Training does to you, the Meteorology book I loved working through.

[Purplepixii]

Thanks, sharing is caring! BUT I agree with you, but not whilst I am paying for my pilots license it aint! :

I agree, maybe you can ask treat yourself when you've passed or ask santa to buy you a subscription for xmas :lol:

Good luck tomorrow!

[cj114]

That's what Pilot Training does to you, the Meteorology book I loved working through.

Me too! However that was 30yrs ago when I worked for the then "Aircraft owners and pilots association" and looked after you guy's whilst you took your tests. I also used to map out flights etc and call the met office for weather updates. Loved it.

Back on topic.....................can't see much in the way of convective stuff so far.

[Robbie Garrett]

Yellow Warning of Rain04 Nov 2011, 01:00

Yellow Warning of Rain

Valid From: 04 Nov 2011, 01:00

Valid To: 04 Nov 2011, 17:00

Issued at - 03 Nov 2011, 22:41

Valid from - 04 Nov 2011, 01:00

Valid to - 04 Nov 2011, 17:00

An area of heavy and possibly thundery rain will move north across the more central parts of southern England and southeast England during the early hours of Friday. Meanwhile, slow moving, heavy and locally thundery showers are expected to develop more widely during Friday. The public should be aware that as a result of the heavy rain there could be some surface water flooding, leading to local travel disruption.

The public are advised to take extra care, further information and advice can be found here: http://www.metoffice...r/uk/links.html

Edited November 3, 2011 by Robbie Garrett

[A.J]

I doff my cap to those who said this was starting to spin north west earlier, it does indeed look that way. Light rainfall here in NW London has just started, this could be a long night !

Agreed BB, a good call by Darren & Isolated Frost, a definite NNW-NW trend in the movement of that western flank, looks like a wave pulsing up along the almost stationary front, might even affect me later on in the night....My eyes though are still drawn to activity further west & South West in Biscay, as I would expect showers & thunderstorms to continue to develop readily during the overnight period to affect SW England, the West Country & the Midlands

[wimblettben]

Agreed BB, a good call by Darren & Isolated Frost, a definite NNW-NW trend in the movement of that western flank, looks like a wave pulsing up along the almost stationary front, might even affect me later on in the night....My eyes though are still drawn to activity further west & South West in Biscay, as I would expect showers & thunderstorms to continue to develop readily during the overnight period to affect SW England, the West Country & the Midlands

Does this mean we still have a risk remaining for something tonight and tomorrow then?

[A.J]

Does this mean we still have a risk remaining for something tonight and tomorrow then?

Definitely!

[Robbie Garrett]

Agreed BB, a good call by Darren & Isolated Frost, a definite NNW-NW trend in the movement of that western flank, looks like a wave pulsing up along the almost stationary front, might even affect me later on in the night....My eyes though are still drawn to activity further west & South West in Biscay, as I would expect showers & thunderstorms to continue to develop readily during the overnight period to affect SW England, the West Country & the Midlands

Looks interesting in the BoB, looks more like a SuperCell!

[Nick F]

Nice looking MCS coming out of Normandy, strange saying this in November!

Anyway, new Netweather storm forecast from midnight:

Storm & Convective Forecast - Issued 03/11/2011 22:30

Forecast Summary Map

Click for full size

Valid: 04/11/2011 00:00 - 05/11/2011 06:00

Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

A deep negatively-tilted long-wave trough to the west of the British Isles extends southeast from Greenland to Iberia/Morocco during the forecast period - driving a deep cyclonic S to SWerly flow across western Europe. At the surface, a deep area of low pressure resides to the NW of the UK, with a slack trough of low pressure across the UK.

... S ENGLAND, S WALES, THE MIDLANDS, E ANGLIA ...

A well modified rPm airmass across the UK, characterised by cold mid-levels and a mild moist boundary layer advecting north beneath, wiil be most unstable across southern Britain during Friday - where richest moisture, warmth and greatest forcing for ascent will exist.

A frontal wave moving north out of France across SE and E England in the early hours, bringing an area of heavy rain, may have thundestorms embedded - with a risk of torrential rain, hail and gusty winds. Then like today, heavy showers around southern and western coast early morning will spread/develop inland across southern England, south Wales, The Midlands and East Anglia during the morning - with an increased risk of thunderstorms developing by lunchtime and continuing into the afternoon. One or more shortwave troughs aloft moving NE will likely organise convection and aid t-storm development. Though deep layer shear will be generally weak, with the risk of organised severe weather less likely than Saturday, some low level shear is indicated towards SE England where surface flow is indicated to be more backed towards the SE - which suggests that a tornado/waterspout cannot be ruled out with more vigorous updrafts. Otherwise, storms maybe accompanied by hail, gusty winds and torrential downpours which may lead to localised flooding. Storms will fade by late evening as CAPE receeds.

Issued by: Nick F - Forecaster for Netweather

[Team Jo]

Woah. Cheeky spin on this bad boy! Maybe so,e crashes and bangs for us a bit after, but Lots of rain for the foreseeable...

Can you imagine if this was August?! Lol