Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

3rd/4th November 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports


kold weather

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Magor - South Wales
  • Location: Magor - South Wales

Just checked the Raintoday weather radar.... think I will go to bed, nothing going to happen here at all, which is a great excuse for some sleep at least I suppose. Would have loved a good old fashioned thunderstorm though ;-(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Finding it hard to keep my eyes open so going to call it a night,Hope something happens later,Night all

I would get some sleep! tomorow is looking very for good many areas, and your area is good for thundery activity! so its best to sleep anyone that(see bolded text) Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL

sweet little storm here in soton just saw a huge cg :D i love unexpeced storms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

Just been woken up by some torrential rain??!!!! where did this lot come from and why AGAIN no warning from the met office??

We must have had about an inch in half an hour and the radar is looking amazing!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Last Radar map im posting here so you can see where everything is! in general its all moving up from France.

take a look at the Brest area in France, now that is heading up for later!0255.gif

2:55am

http://www.weatheron...IT=201111040345 - keep track of the radar here, and can zoom in to.

Later looks thundery for many especially the South, but i think moving further North, so some thunder downpours or even thunderstorms are possible again today through the day and into the evening!

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL

another more active storm is moving in now ahhhhh :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!

One hell of a noisey old night here!!! Started about 1230 and I think its still going now really. 2 big old storms with no real break in between. after them high based sheet lightning and forks for a good hour or more. I've only slept about an hour / hour n' half tops! And bucketting down now. Been awake so long im hungry so filling up on cereal lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Morning all!

Just to round up where we are, here are the other organisations forecasts for today:

ESTOFEX

post-6667-0-69857600-1320392464.png

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 04 Nov 2011 06:00 to Sat 05 Nov 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 03 Nov 2011 20:21

Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

A pronounced Rossby wave runs from Iceland all the way to N-Morocco and assists in a major blocking event for all of Europe. During the end of this forecast, the southern part of this high-amplitude trough starts to drip off into the far W-Mediterranean. Large-scale ridging will be the result by downstream development with gradually rising geopotential heights over central/N-Europe. Downstream of this ridge, an outbreak of cold, polar air is underway over Russia.

For the western/central Mediterranean, this day marks the start of a particular dangerous multi-days excessive rainfall event, especially for parts of SE-France and parts of NW-Italy. Please follow closely new informations and warnings of your local weather office !

DISCUSSION

... United Kingdom, far N-France and parts of the North Sea ...

Along the eastern flank of the upper trough, a mid-tropospheric wave traverses the highlighted region from SSW to NNE during the daytime hours while weakening. Despite that, a distinct thermal trough accompanies that wave with temperatures at 500 hPa dropping to below -20 °C. Some diurnal heating onshore, SSTs up to 15 °C (represented by latest buoy data) and temporarily steepening mid-level lapse rates are adequate for some widespread ~ 500 J/kg MLCAPE build-up. DLS/LL shear beneath that wave remain modest and forecast soundings in this area indicate unsuspicious conditions with mainly short, straight-line hodographs. Marginal hail and gusty winds accompany stronger storms. The overall activity remains isolated in nature. After sunset, BL becomes more stable with vanishing CAPE and incoming ridging from the SW rapidly restrains any DMC probabilities.

UKASF:

Last Updated: 23:31 Thursday, 3rd November 2011

Valid: 00:00 Friday, 4th November 2011 - 23:59 Friday, 4th November 2011

post-6667-0-34207100-1320392583.jpg

Areas Affected:

SLGT: England and Wales

Synopsis:

Cool but modified mid-levels spread northwards across the British Isles on Friday, steepening lapse rates as a result of daytime heating and relatively warm SSTs.

Discussion:

Behind the cold front, which may have some embedded convection, steepening lapse rates as surface temperatures rise to 15-16C will allow >600J/kg CAPE to develop. As a result, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected, and with ELTs as low as -50C there is certainly scope for some decent lightning in any stronger cells.

Continued model guidance suggests the main focus for these will be from the West Country NNEwards across the Midlands towards Lincolnshire and the Wash area. It is possible that very few showers may affect western Wales, the far west of SW England and eastern parts of East Anglia. Given such a setup, with light steering winds, and sufficient organisation, high rainfall totals are possible locally as a result of shower trains.

On the whole both DLS and LLS are quite weak, typically <30kts, which primarily precludes the risk of a tornado. However, an overlap of more noteworthy shear over the SE and East Anglia first thing, associated with the back edge of the cold front, could produce an isolated tornadic event. Small, locally moderate, hail is possible in some showers. Showers are expected to decay rapidly after sunset, although may persist across the Midlands into evening in any more organised lines of convection.

SkyWarn:

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #060

ISSUED: 2330UTC THURSDAY 3RD NOVEMBER 2011 (GJ)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

WALES SOUTHWEST ENGLAND SOUTHERN ENGLAND MIDLANDS EAST ANGLIA SOUTHEAST ENGLAND NORTHERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 2330UTC THURSDAY 3RD UNTIL 2300UTC FRIDAY 4TH NOVEMBER 2011

LARGE TROUGH EXISTS TO THE WEST OF THE UK PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...STRONG GUSTS...FLASH FLOODING...LIGHTNING

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONFIDENCE OF CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST NEARS DURING THE EARLY HOURS, INSPIRING CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UK DURING THE DAY. DURING THE EARLY HOURS, A DEVELOPING WAVE MOVING NNE FROM FRANCE WILL ENHANCE GENERAL PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN ENGLAND WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION EMBEDDED AND ALONG THE BACK EDGE. BEHIND THIS STORMS MOVING OFF FRANCE INTO SOUTHERN REGIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE HAIL AND HEAVY PRECIP CORES THROUGH THE DAY. THESE AND THE STORMS FROM THE SW ARE EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN STRENGTH AS THEY TRANIST TO NORTHERN ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND EAST ANGLIA. CAPE OF 4-500J/KG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 2.5CM INDICATES ALL STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF HEAVY PRECIP LEADING TO EXCESS SURFACE WATER AND LOCALISED FLOODING. SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND UNFAVOURABLE INLAND, ALTHOUGH COASTAL CONVERGENCE COULD INSPIRE MORE ORGANISED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE FUNNELS. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED.

post-6667-0-69857600-1320392464_thumb.pn

post-6667-0-34207100-1320392583_thumb.jp

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

Well I wouldn't be surprised by lots of flooding reported on the news today. Haven't checked yet but I bet. It rained so more last night no more thunder and seems to have abated this morning. Infact I can see a bit of blue. This is chichester though not Newbury and wonder how it all faired there last night.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

9mm at church lawford last night but next to nothing for Coleshill. At least it was the east Midlands turn to get a drop for a change.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

Well apart from having a few very heavy showers last night we didn't have any thunder.

I did however see some distant lightning flashes to the southeast.

Given that the forecasts are just a risk doesn't bode well for thunder here today but of course it could also go the other way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

21st OWS have the risk area retreating to the South over France by lunchtime:

21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_24.gif

Their UKMO version has it still firmly over parts of the UK:

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_36_00Z.png

CAPE and LI build this morning, best by 11.00 and gone by 18.00 hrs

cape.curr.1100lst.d2.png

Rmgfs126.gif

Nice bit of convective cloud lurking:

30_24.gif

IOW area again late morning?

hir_layer_eur12.png

gfs_layer_eur12.png

hir_lfc_eur12.png

gfs_lfc_eur12.png

hir_lapse2_eur12.png

gfs_lapse2_eur12.png

Rain not as intense as it has been overnight, seems to be moving into the North Sea off Scotland:

hir_prec_eur12.png

gfs_prec_eur12.png

Hi Res HiRLEM has a little patch of the SE over Essex worth watching (GFS does not feature this):

hir_stp_eur12.png

I'll be watching for that area around the IOW late morning, but then who knows?!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)

Thanks for posting all the reports Coast

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Thanks for posting all the reports Coast

Sorry its so long/big - quite a bit of info to get through this morning

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Good luck everyone for today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

Thanks Coast great posts really good will be interesting to read your updates on the iow potential? Do you think it could decay or is there enough instability? Also don't know if you are still located in Chichester - can't see the profile on IPhone but is the tv transmitter for the area down only we can't get the tv to work. Aerial seems ok though according to dad?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Sadly those torrential downpours the NAE Predicted first thing never materialised. Perhaps too much cloud from that Eastern rain. :( However there looks to be some showers getting going in the West now. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)

Sorry its so long/big - quite a bit of info to get through this morning

Its nice to get a few to compare, looks like isolated threat then for the South through the day, hope those further north get something good from the system heading up

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

One hell of a noisey old night here!!! Started about 1230 and I think its still going now really. 2 big old storms with no real break in between. after them high based sheet lightning and forks for a good hour or more. I've only slept about an hour / hour n' half tops! And bucketting down now. Been awake so long im hungry so filling up on cereal lol.

This is calssic overnight MCS stuff that used to happen quite regularly during our summers, not in November! Very topsy turvy seasons this year, with summer in April and late Sept/early Oct and autumn in summer.

Heard very heavy rain in the night though no thunder.

Netweather storm forecast for today: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Location: Bournemouth

updrafts all over the place in Bmouth, nothing but sporadic rain so far. Im near the coast and its looking very black towards the north at mo.

Think Im going to head down the beach and watch as things develope and move inland. More sig tornado / water spout chances towards the SE today but with all these updrafts interacting with each other...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...