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Model Output Discussion - 7th-13th November


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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH240.gif

ECM DAY 10 mean 850 temps forecasting values of 16 degrees C below normal for large parts of NW Canada and Alaska into the central Plains. Incredible stuff which IMO merits much more than our static trough to the west. Snow cover, which is already pretty healthy, looks set to explode in the next 10 days for the Northern Hemisphere.

that doesnt work for me...

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http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH240.gif

ECM DAY 10 mean 850 temps forecasting values of 16 degrees C below normal for large parts of NW Canada and Alaska into the central Plains. Incredible stuff which IMO merits much more than our static trough to the west. Snow cover, which is already pretty healthy, looks set to explode in the next 10 days for the Northern Hemisphere.

your anomaly chart looks a dead set 4 wave pattern- just not in the right place for us- If you had a -AO you would say its locked!

ECM control is good- must have a stage retrogression westwards at day 9 & 13

S

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

I don't think anyone is expecting cold within the next ten days! It is the time after that that we are all interested in. The most likely way to cold is through retrogression of the Scandi High but if this doesn't occur (as is probably likely) then the pattern that is set after this could take a similar amount of time to reset and if the Scandi high fades then the upstream amplification will be all important. By this time last year we had already recognised and were getting excited by the potential in store for later on in the month. No such excitement yet this November.

Looking at this evenings comments on the CPC site there`s high confidence in the next 10days and they mention a flatter upstream pattern in week 2 so there`s seems little prospect of a sudden change in the medium term.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

The mean ECM T240 chart doesn`t promise any retrogression and looks less tasty than it`s op.chart.

EDH1-240.GIF?07-12

12Z mean hts show a lot of blocking nearby but still too much energy up North,flattening the Hts towards mid-latitude.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

It`s not going to be a one step move to cold from this and i agree with Chiono, taking all the output there`s no firm pointer to blocking in the right place for cold as yet.

I think the best we are going to do is the surface cooling from next week off the continent around the high.

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

there ya go.

Thank you :D:)

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I don't think anyone is expecting cold within the next ten days! It is the time after that that we are all interested in. The most likely way to cold is through retrogression of the Scandi High but if this doesn't occur (as is probably likely) then the pattern that is set after this could take a similar amount of time to reset and if the Scandi high fades then the upstream amplification will be all important. By this time last year we had already recognised and were getting excited by the potential in store for later on in the month. No such excitement yet this November.

hopefully this has begun to sink in with most posters. there is no deep cold likely within a fortnight, though we may pick up a continental soueaster which would be chilly. i have looked back at the ecm output from this time last year and we had a fairly deep depression crossing us followed by a forecast zonal pattern out to T240. cant seem to access the runs from the 10th to the 12th november. those from the 13th onwards have already picked the strong greeny block by the 23rd. the gfs archives for that period are also mysteriously absent on meteociel. i recall that the naefs picked the strong developing greeny block around now in deep fi and counted down to it without flinching. there is no such strong anomoly currently showing for two weeks time. that doesnt mean one wont come into focus.

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hopefully this has begun to sink in with most posters. there is no deep cold likely within a fortnight, though we may pick up a continental soueaster which would be chilly. i have looked back at the ecm output from this time last year and we had a fairly deep depression crossing us followed by a forecast zonal pattern out to T240. cant seem to access the runs from the 10th to the 12th november. those from the 13th onwards have already picked the strong greeny block by the 23rd. the gfs archives for that period are also mysteriously absent on meteociel. i recall that the naefs picked the strong developing greeny block around now in deep fi and counted down to it without flinching. there is no such strong anomoly currently showing for two weeks time. that doesnt mean one wont come into focus.

you cant quite be sure of that-we can get a pattern that will back west a second time- thats our shot then - day 11/12- the control ECM shows this

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

you cant quite be sure of that-we can get a pattern that will back west a second time- thats our shot then - day 11/12- the control ECM shows this

S

point taken steve but given we're a day or so behind de bilt, thats pretty well a fortnight.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

point taken steve but given we're a day or so behind de bilt, thats pretty well a fortnight.

I think 2 weeks is a realsitic timeframe for the approach of the cold- ties in well with my thoughts of last third of November for the cold to reach our shores

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Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

I think 2 weeks is a realsitic timeframe for the approach of the cold- ties in well with my thoughts of last third of November for the cold to reach our shores

Yep ties in with my thoughts exactly too its just watching all the jigsaw pieces fall into place

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Yep ties in with my thoughts exactly too its just watching all the jigsaw pieces fall into place

To be honest I'm not bothered about the finer details of charts +240 hours away. The main point for me is that tonight's ECM run paints a lovely longwave pattern that, albeit in the wrong position for cold for our shores, lays the foundations for later in the month. Steady as she goes.

Without sounding like I'm ramping (as I try to stay impartial at all times), I think it goes without saying that given the current jet profile, any cold that does arrive to our shores has the potential to stick around for quite some time IMO.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Will be interesting if this mild spell does continue or will the forecast of something potentially colder will come to fruition, one thing I've learnt from last winter is that if you have some sort of block in place its a good starting point even if it does not favour in terms of cold so maybe thats one of the reasons why people are hopeful?

At the moment it is a mild, cloudy and at times wet outlook with rainbands tend to fizzle out as they head eastwards, could potentially turn very mild/warm towards next weekend - something the models have been hinting at for a lengthy amount of time now.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

MJO Taking quite a rapid spin through to Phase 2 on the ECM forecast... If I recall from the last 2 winters this was where things really kicked off.

post-7292-0-16618600-1320704930_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Shows what happens if the upper high ends up a little bit further east than expected, we could well end up back in a milder southerly. Could swing either way yet...

I'm getting the feeling we are just going to end up on the wrong side of everything again, shame but very early days...

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Shows what happens if the upper high ends up a little bit further east than expected, we could well end up back in a milder southerly. Could swing either way yet...

I'm getting the feeling we are just going to end up on the wrong side of everything again, shame but very early days...

I have one thing to say to that......

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

pub run throwing some awful synoptics for cold lovers - If something like that were to come off, it would make the likes of Madden and Corbyn look foolish to say the least. ties in with what I predicted: mild november throughout

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

pub run throwing some awful synoptics for cold lovers - If something like that were to come off, it would make the likes of Madden and Corbyn look foolish to say the least. ties in with what I predicted: mild november throughout

All I'll say is 'game on' - let's see who is closer to the mark come the last week of November. The cold and wintry camp or the camp of the mild and dull.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

camp? hmm!

Whatever happened to a good old fashioned interest in weather generally?

18z shows a continuation of mild, but it's quite different to some of the previous runs so everything is up in the air.

I do get the impression, synoptic-wise it's not as clear cut as last year, like some have said there was a fairly good idea of what was coming up later in the month at this stage, but this year, it could go one of many ways.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

All I'll say is 'game on' - let's see who is closer to the mark come the last week of November. The cold and wintry camp or the camp of the mild and dull.

How about an unbiased camp!

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

How about an unbiased camp!

That'll be the day Chion! Why do we have to keep getting posts saying "I believe" or "I think". without a shred of evidence to back it up, other than that's what they think or believe, then pouncing on any FI chart that might just support them, if it ran out to t500 & your Auntie had a top hat?

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

That'll be the day Chion! Why do we have to keep getting posts saying "I believe" or "I think". without a shred of evidence to back it up, other than that's what they think or believe, then pouncing on any FI chart that might just support them, if it ran out to t500 & your Auntie had a top hat?

Your not suggesting that people pick and choose the charts to fit their beliefs rather than use the charts to form their beliefs are you Dave?

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland

I think I might start paying people to stay on topic, and for everyone who manages to refrain from saying the charts are showing exactly what they predicted in their forecast, I'll add an extra 10% to the total.

1p + 10% = 1.1p.

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

You may say that Chion, I couldn't possibly comment! Anyhoo I'd be off topic :sorry: 18z looking good for mild lovers! (phew! I think i got away with it there!).

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