Model Output Discussion - 7th-13th November

[Cheshire Freeze]

How about an unbiased camp!

Aaaahhh I meant in terms of the models, not sure they include mild/cold bias in their algorithms Come on Chiono, you should know me better than that.

Edited November 7, 2011 by CreweCold

[Richie V]

To be honest I think ECM is off on one. That limpet Euro HP's days are numbered now, That PV is really powering up as each day passes now and can be clearly seen doing so in the past 5 days on the GFS runs.

Edited November 8, 2011 by Richie V

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Could someone explain to me (the noob) what can be seen as i have been watching this thread for days and there is talk of a possible change in FI, but i cant see it on the models.

[Isolated Frost]

Could someone explain to me (the noob) what can be seen as i have been watching this thread for days and there is talk of a possible change in FI, but i cant see it on the models.

It was generally a lot of optimism in the ECM suite which had retrogression in full force- which was supported by 500mb anomaly charts, but the 0z ECM gets rid of this.

[snow drift]

Could someone explain to me (the noob) what can be seen as i have been watching this thread for days and there is talk of a possible change in FI, but i cant see it on the models.

When viewing this thread, there are many things you need to consider.

The models being one but also each posters pref. and if someone should disagree with another’s pref. then an argument may ensue leading to more confusion.

Like the models you need to look for a theme going forward.

To view one model suite and take it as gospel is similar to taking the view of one poster and taking it as gospel, it will lead to disappointment.

I have a recommendation, learn about model viewing and start to form your own opinions, this will help you in terms of working out what MAY happen. It will also help you to be less confused by posts that have a biased slant, as many do including myself

Themes and learning will help to cut through a lot of noise.

Look for detail in the short term and general themes longer term.

From someone who when started viewing this thread, got very frustrated with differing views but no knowledge to make an educated guess. There are many threads that you can use to educate yourself.

If you are viewing the thread from a, will it Snow on my house point of view, you are going to have as little hair as I come April!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mountain shadow]

Well the GFS has trumped the ECM and UK Met for once with its handling of the US trough. A flatter patterns results with no northern height rises. Still the ECM wants to have a second bite which sets up a possible northerly in a couple of weeks.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

When viewing this thread, there are many things you need to consider.

The models being one but also each posters pref. and if someone should disagree with another’s pref. then an argument may ensue leading to more confusion.

Like the models you need to look for a theme going forward.

To view one model suite and take it as gospel is similar to taking the view of one poster and taking it as gospel, it will lead to disappointment.

I have a recommendation, learn about model viewing and start to form your own opinions, this will help you in terms of working out what MAY happen. It will also help you to be less confused by posts that have a biased slant, as many do including myself

Themes and learning will help to cut through a lot of noise.

Look for detail in the short term and general themes longer term.

From someone who when started viewing this thread, got very frustrated with differing views but no knowledge to make an educated guess. There are many threads that you can use to educate yourself.

If you are viewing the thread from a, will it Snow on my house point of view, you are going to have as little hair as I come April!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Cheers for the info. I can sort of understand the gfs its just the ensembles and the other few. I guess its just years of understanding what comes next.

[Snowmadsam]

well gfs looked interesting this morning.....

gonna have to wait till 12 to see the 06z (stupid school lessons )

Fingers crossed it will be good...ECM looked good this morning too

See you later

Sam

[chionomaniac]

Aaaahhh I meant in terms of the models, not sure they include mild/cold bias in their algorithms Come on Chiono, you should know me better than that.

Yes, sorry. But I couldn't resist that! The ambiguity left you open to encouraging cold /mild bias warfare!

[johnholmes]

Cheers for the info. I can sort of understand the gfs its just the ensembles and the other few. I guess its just years of understanding what comes next.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/66592-ensembles-a-beginners-guide/

hello sp

The Guide to ensembles above should help you understand them more and the advice given you by snowdrift is sound.

Take your time, read the various Guides including one on how to use GFS to do your own forecasts, don't be afraid to ask questions, above all enjoy being part of Net Wx.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Mods

I cannot post links on here, any reason why or is it likely to be my computer, only I could in recent past.

BFTP

http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH240.gif

ECM DAY 10 mean 850 temps forecasting values of 16 degrees C below normal for large parts of NW Canada and Alaska into the central Plains. Incredible stuff which IMO merits much more than our static trough to the west. Snow cover, which is already pretty healthy, looks set to explode in the next 10 days for the Northern Hemisphere.

This IMO is unsurprising. The SST set up, been watching the Unisys one over last couple of months, have shown large areas of cool/cold water and the warm sectors anomalies in the arctic region have been reducing and reducing. I think the -ve PDO and La Nina are strongly influencing this and a general very cold NH winter beckons......just will the UK get involved?

I think some folk on here are good at SST and synoptic pattern set ups and so maybe can look at what pressure pattern is expected with SST influence?

BFTP

Edited November 8, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[wolvesfan]

Morning all,

ECM 00z,my model watching days are in there infancy but would i be wrong in thinking t240 could be showing a continuation onwards of the last month?,the atlantic trough and the euro high still in situ.there dosn't even seem to be much upstream amplification to maybe bring a return to something more zonal.thats how i'm seeing it at the moment am i in the wrong field?,any advice would be much appreciated.

[Uncle_Barty]

Bid differences between GFS & ECM regarding the Euro high @ around 240hrs.

there's only way to go from the last frame on the ECM output and thats cold, GFS holds onto the Euro HP until well into FI, but again brings in a cold shot form the north just much later than ECM.

Not sure I really agree with that assessment - the T850s for ECM 240 show a fairly 'zonal' kind of pattern with the cold air well north.. the exception being some less cold air over Greenland.

The high pressure over Greenland is not strongly 'supported' with heights either..

I cannot see much sign of colder than average weather from the current model output... as before, the only crumb of comfort for cold weather fans is that the upper air pattern is not flat zonal at the moment, so shifting wavelengths could bring a change from this average to mild rut we are in.

Morning all,

ECM 00z,my model watching days are in there infancy but would i be wrong in thinking t240 could be showing a continuation onwards of the last month?,the atlantic trough and the euro high still in situ.there dosn't even seem to be much upstream amplification to maybe bring a return to something more zonal.thats how i'm seeing it at the moment am i in the wrong field?,any advice would be much appreciated.

That is a reasonable assessment.

Well the GFS has trumped the ECM and UK Met for once with its handling of the US trough. A flatter patterns results with no northern height rises. Still the ECM wants to have a second bite which sets up a possible northerly in a couple of weeks.

No model has 'trumped' any other untill it has actually verified.....

[nick sussex]

The ECM this morning may look interesting at the end but it's mutton dressed as lamb!

A western neg based NAO isn't going to bring any cold to the UK and its a poor run for cold lovers. The GFS is just boring but at least doesn't cruelly have people looking north for redemption.

The best at the moment seems to be some faux cold, unfortunately the models are reluctant to take any energy se off that main trough into southern Europe, having said all this there are opportunities especially in the ECM where things may take a different course.

But will they happen?

[Glacier Point]

Just looking at the ECM spreads, a clustering of solutions suggesting a chunk of energy breaking off and heading southwards into the Atlantic to reinforce our omni-present trough to our west day 8 - certainly the DeBilt T2m ensembles have a grouping heading upwards from this point to very mild values for mid to late November, but also some cooler ones suggesting the high to remain in situ and draw in some cooler air. This upward trend might be a little progressive, but along the right lines I think.

For coldies, the one thing I would offer is that if we stay as we are with that ridge and trough arrangement, this would be a very positive signal for later on in the winter. Front loaded Nina winters are never good IMO (although last year was epic to start) and the fact that this autumn is along the lines of 1984 and 1995 which are somewhat atypical Ninas, this is a big, big bonus.

[shedhead]

The ECM this morning may look interesting at the end but it's mutton dressed as lamb!

A western neg based NAO isn't going to bring any cold to the UK and its a poor run for cold lovers. The GFS is just boring but at least doesn't cruelly have people looking north for redemption.

The best at the moment seems to be some faux cold, unfortunately the models are reluctant to take any energy se off that main trough into southern Europe, having said all this there are opportunities especially in the ECM where things may take a different course.

But will they happen?

Looks like we will continue to really struggle to break this Atlantic trough/Euro ridge set up. Subtle changes may mean some variation at times across the middle third of the month, but the overall theme remains pretty much set in stone imo.

Edited November 8, 2011 by shedhead

[bluearmy]

the mean ecm and naefs both have an upper ridge over greenland day 10. unfortunately, the trough sits stubbornly to the south, held there by the persistance of the high sceuro heights. the whole pattern remains fairly stable wrt to what we currently have. what follows is open to question with no real strong anomolies in deep naefs fi, though, the spreads are either showing a stalling atlantic trough as we have seen for the past few weeks or a developing icelandic block. given the shape of the spreads over europe it has to be the former. 'plus ca change' - encore !!

[ANYWEATHER]

Just looking at the ECM spreads, a clustering of solutions suggesting a chunk of energy breaking off and heading southwards into the Atlantic to reinforce our omni-present trough to our west day 8 - certainly the DeBilt T2m ensembles have a grouping heading upwards from this point to very mild values for mid to late November, but also some cooler ones suggesting the high to remain in situ and draw in some cooler air. This upward trend might be a little progressive, but along the right lines I think.

For coldies, the one thing I would offer is that if we stay as we are with that ridge and trough arrangement, this would be a very positive signal for later on in the winter. Front loaded Nina winters are never good IMO (although last year was epic to start) and the fact that this autumn is along the lines of 1984 and 1995 which are somewhat atypical Ninas, this is a big, big bonus.

Yes , last Winter I think peaked to early, although dramatic, come the true Winter Months of January and Feb , by then Little Winter weather. As you say ,some patience required for a turn around in the synoptics, but with the cold locked up in the Poles where its likely to stay for a good while , some real "cruel cold" to tap into later down the line, Obviously given the complexity of our weather, its a little to early to say whether the Uk will take a Big Bite of the Winter Cherry!! :smilz38:

[nick sussex]

the mean ecm and naefs both have an upper ridge over greenland day 10. unfortunately, the trough sits stubbornly to the south, held there by the persistance of the high sceuro heights. the whole pattern remains fairly stable wrt to what we currently have. what follows is open to question with no real strong anomolies in deep naefs fi, though, the spreads are either showing a stalling atlantic trough as we have seen for the past few weeks or a developing icelandic block. given the shape of the spreads over europe it has to be the former. 'plus ca change' - encore !!

Unfortunately the stalling limpet trough has decided to sit in the worst possible position for Europe, looking ahead this could delay the start of the skiing season, although we had shed loads of rain here recently the freezing level was quite high and although there was huge amounts of snow above 2000 metres the projected southerly will soon erode that!

if only that trough could send some energy se the outlook could be so much better but it looks like refusing to do so. Certainly its very frustrating for many in this thread although GP's post may give some comfort although I suspect patience is wearing very thin for many in here who like the cold and snow.

For those who'd like to see some snow this is the webcam from the Pic Du Midi De Bigorre, they have an observatory here and this actually helped NASA in the lunar landing.

It's just to my sw and is certainly worth a visit if you ever get down to this part of France.

http://www.bagn.obs-mip.fr/webcamV2/

Edited November 8, 2011 by nick sussex

[ITSY]

ECM certainly offering a much better solution for coldies by T+240. GFS having none of it again. Don't have the graphs either, but both NAO and AO are apparently about to trend negative, which would support a blocking (ECM) scenario - but who knows. Its a toss up at the moment, clearly.

[wolvesfan]

Hello all,

Gfs 06z,looks very similar now to ECM and at t240 there seems to be good agreement that this pattern is likely to continue. i'm starting to understand why the euro high frustrates a lot of people,its not realy bringing anything of interest were just stuck under the TM sludge.

[Mark Bayley]

High pressure remains across Europe for much of the GFS run, keeping us stuck in this pattern with the trough out in the Atlantic. The ECM isn't much better with heights rising over Greenland (-NAO) but this being west based due to the trough sat in the Atlantic, if only it would move SE. Looking into the long term i can't see anything to support much in the way of cold (in terms of snow). The stratospheric tempratures contine to fall, this will only promote a +AO and lead to the strengthening of the PV over the arctic.

The MJO is forecast to move into phase two towards the end of the month, which would give us this composite.

Edited November 8, 2011 by Mark Bayley

[shedhead]

Unfortunately the stalling limpet trough has decided to sit in the worst possible position for Europe, looking ahead this could delay the start of the skiing season, although we had shed loads of rain here recently the freezing level was quite high and although there was huge amounts of snow above 2000 metres the projected southerly will soon erode that!

if only that trough could send some energy se the outlook could be so much better but it looks like refusing to do so. Certainly its very frustrating for many in this thread although GP's post may give some comfort although I suspect patience is wearing very thin for many in here who like the cold and snow.

For those who'd like to see some snow this is the webcam from the Pic Du Midi De Bigorre, they have an observatory here and this actually helped NASA in the lunar landing.

It's just to my sw and is certainly worth a visit if you ever get down to this part of France.

http://www.bagn.obs-mip.fr/webcamV2/

Thanks for that Nick, some lovely images there. Unfortunately the way things are shaping up (or perhaps more accurately refusing to change) on the models, webcam viewing of snow is the best most of us can hope for through this month at least...

Edited November 8, 2011 by shedhead

[chionomaniac]

High pressure remains across Europe for much of the GFS run, keeping us stuck in this pattern with the trough out in the Atlantic. The ECM isn't much better with heights rising over Greenland (-NAO) but this being west based due to the trough sat in the Atlantic, if only it would move SE. Looking into the long term i can't see anything to support much in the way of cold (in terms of snow). The stratospheric tempratures contine to fall, this will only promote a +AO and lead to the strengthening of the PV over the arctic.

The MJO is forecast to move into phase two, which would give us this composite.

I am not surprised to see that blip seen yesterday in the N pole 30 hPa temps disappear. It was merely due to the variation of slightly warmer air caught in the rotation of vortex

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I don't think anything is set in stone yet for next week in regards to will we see a continuation of mild daytime temps or a fairly significent decrease in daytime temps to slightly below average and even single digit daytime figures.

The 06z and 12z GFS of yesterday showed the euro high further North and West giving more of a Easterly/South Easterly feed of air and progging daytime temps in single figures, yesterdays 18z then had the high further South and East putting us back in a more Southerly flow for next week, then surprise surprise the 00z GFS had us back in a Easterly/South Easterly feed, then LO and BEHOLD the 06z puts us back in a Southerly feed. It's as clear as mud still but I will maintain we have a 75% chance of a fairly significent decrease in daytime temps from Monday next week. Icindentally Weather Online update this morning goes for turning colder by the end of the weekend.