Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Now this is a very rare sight!!!! We have invest 99L, in the MEDITERRANEAN (!), east of Spain. Convection is persisting over a tight LLC, with banding becoming increasingly impressive. Dare I say this could become a tropical storm?!

post-1820-0-02515100-1320690415_thumb.jp

Edited by Somerset Squall
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Very interesting. I do recall that there have been invests in the region before even if they did not develop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

There's been cold-core systems before in/around the Azores and Canary Islands. Including one that tracked across Gibraltar, but never seen one quite like this before..

weatheronline has the western rain banding edging into Spain

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/radar?LANG=en&STRUCTUR=maps&CONT=euro&CREG=r01g

sat24 showing the recent loop of the system

http://www.sat24.com/en/it

Seems to be stationary at the moment, with convective cells firing all along its flanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Is there a tracker for this Invest on NOAA? Very strange looks quite potent..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

SSD are classifying it as Tropical Storm 01M. Amazing! I guess it won't receive an Atlantic name.

TXMM21 KNES 071819

TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 07/1800Z

C. 41.1N

D. 5.3E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING ON LOG10

SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED

LONG ENOUGH AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER FOR A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...SCHWARTZ

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Difficult to say, but the storm looks stationary at present. Over the last day or two the storm has been bringing heavy rains to eastern Spain, southern France, northern Italy and the islands of the western Med generally.

Edited by Somerset Squall
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Difficult to say, but the storm looks stationary at present. Over the last day or two the storm has been bringing heavy rains to eastern Spain, southern France, northern Italy and the islands of the western Med generally.

It's here at 1800z.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

how often does his occur and when was the last time the med had a tropical storm?

Very rarely. And the tropical classification of these rare creatures is still being debated.

On rare occasions, tropical-like systems occur over the Mediterranean Sea. These systems are a subject of some debate within meteorological circles whether they closely fit the definition of tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones, or polar lows. Their origins are typically non-tropical, and develop over open waters under strong, initially cold-core cyclones, similar to subtropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.[22] Sea surface temperatures in late-August and early-September are quite high over the basin (+24/+28°C), though research indicates water temperatures of 20 °C/68 °F are normally required for development.[23]

Meteorological literature documents that such systems occurred in September 1947, September 1969, January 1982, September 1983, January 1995 and November 2011 (the latter officially classified as Tropical Storm 01M).[24][25] The 1995 system developed a well-defined eye, and a ship recorded 85 mph (140 km/h) winds, along with an atmospheric pressure of 975 mbar. Although it had the structure of a tropical cyclone, it occurred over 61 °F (16 °C) water temperatures, suggesting it could have been a polar low.[26]

http://en.wikipedia....diterranean_Sea

Edited by Somerset Squall
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Its probably not as rare as people think, these sorts of lows pop up at least once a year...but no one takes any real notice of them, so they get missed.

however that being said this does look VERY good indeed even by Med standards...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Atomic7732/Mediterranean_tropical_cyclone

Not quite as rare as is being made out (although rare).

All bar one have developed in the September-January period and the debate generally centers around whether or not a storm can be classified as Tropical if water temperatures are cool.

Having been around for the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season, we had many systems that formed in cooler than generally needed and yet were still classified as tropical entities. Why was this? This was clearly because other factors dictate whether a storm has a warm or cold core. Even water around 15C provides energy, thus some storms can clearly still feed enough to develop a warm core.

My opinion - Get a scan, if it has a warm core then it is tropical baby!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

If you want a big clue SB, take a look at the upper atmosphere temps. Its not a fluke that 2005 saw a WAY below average cold pool in the upper parts of the atmosphere in the NE Atlantic on several occasions. Its all about Lapse rates from what I've noticed. Get high enough lapse rates to develop deep convection of some sorts and your going to have a fair chance at a tropical system.

Med systems tend to evolve the same way as NE Atlantic systems, you'll get a cold-cre low/wave develop at first then eventually it'll transition and develop deeper convection.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Indeed KW.

Temperatures are above 20C, this is definitely tropical given the sattelite presentation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Altitude: 189 m, Density Altitude: 6 m
  • Weather Preferences: Tropical Cyclone, Blizzard, Thunderstorm, Freezing Cold Day and Heat Wave.
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Altitude: 189 m, Density Altitude: 6 m

1) Is it possible to become hurricane?

2) Is it possible to come in Greece?

3) Why can't I see it here: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ ?

And an article:

Warming may bring hurricanes to Mediterranean

(Reuters) - Global warming could trigger hurricanes, or tropical cyclones, over the Mediterranean sea, threatening one of the world's most densely populated coastal regions, according to European scientists.

Hurricanes currently form out in the tropical Atlantic and rarely reach Europe, but a new study shows a 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) rise in average temperatures could set them off in the enclosed Mediterranean in future.

"This is the first study to detect this possibility," lead researcher Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain, told Reuters on Monday.

"Most models in our study show increasing storm intensity and if you combine this with rising sea levels, as are projected, this could be damaging for many coastal settlements."

As well as being home to millions, the Mediterranean coast is also a major centre of tourism, which would be under threat.

Factors influencing hurricanes include warm sea surface temperatures and atmospheric instability. In the past, they have been confined to a limited number of regions, such as the north Atlantic and north Pacific, where they are known as typhoons.

Recently, however, they have been forming in unusual places, which Gaertner sees as a clear danger signal.

In 2004, Hurricane Catarina formed in the south Atlantic and hit land in southern Brazil. A year later, Hurricane Vince formed next to the Madeira Islands and became the first to make landfall in Spain.

In a paper published in the American Geophysical Union Journal, Gaertner and colleagues from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, used a range of regional climate models to assess the chance of similar events in the Mediterranean.

They found rising temperatures pointed to increasing storm intensity and, in the case of the most sensitive computer model, a likelihood of strong hurricanes.

Gaertner said a large number of uncertainties remained and it was not yet possible to say which parts of the Mediterranean would be hardest hit. He also believes there is time to avoid the worst-case scenario by working to limit global warming.

"This is a big threat but I think we have time to avoid it, if we cut emissions of greenhouse gases," Gaertner said.

A United Nations climate panel, drawing on the work of 2,500 scientists, said this year that the "best estimate" was that temperatures would rise 1.8-4.0 Celsius this century.

Most experts say emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly from burning fossil fuels in power plants, factories and cars, are the principal reason for rising temperatures.

http://uk.reuters.co...666597920070716

Edited by Konstantinos
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Most likely evolution is quasi-stationary or slow cyclonic drift within 100 miles of current position, any landfall most likely to be in southern France but most likely no landfall of centre. Greece totally in the clear on this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Most likely evolution is quasi-stationary or slow cyclonic drift within 100 miles of current position, any landfall most likely to be in southern France but most likely no landfall of centre. Greece totally in the clear on this.

You could well be correct. Little change overnight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

I know this isn't current. But we were in Croatia in late August 2006 and the weather there towards the end turned cyclonic. One of the people we spoke to in the hotel worked for mediterranean meterological people (no idea what they are called). He said that the system was likely to turn into a tropical storm, but I'm not sure it ever did and looking at the records it doesn't have appeared to.

Either way for the last couple of days we were there it was pretty 'tropical storm' like. We had hot mornings which tunred extrememly humid and by afternoon into the late evenings we were getting strong winds, lashing rain and severe thunderstorms. When we flew home we had to go a long route to miss the sytem and i distinctly recall the pilot saying the weather sytem was extrememly unusual and normally seen in the tropics.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

From ESTOFEX:

post-6667-0-55822900-1320750254.png

****** Tropical storm 01M/99L ******

SUMMARY: 8th NOV. 2011, 0600 UTC

-----------------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...41.5N 5.8E

ABOUT 108 NM...200 KM SE OF MARSEILLE

ABOUT 126 NM...233 KM W OF AJACCIO, CORSICA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...52 MPH...83 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ROUGHLY 5KM/H TO THE EAST

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... ROUGHLY 1000 hPa

UPDATE 06UTC: The center of the cyclone again became better organized with the strongest convection now in the southern and eastern part (maybe enhanced by the jet streak, which passes by to the SE). Some slow movement to the east occurred but despite a further consolidating cyclone, latest reports do not indicate any strengthening (also assisted by ASCAT data). No further surface reports were available.

NOTE 1: Despite issuing new ESTOFEX updates, this part of the outlook will be updated when new informations become available. Please check this table for further updates during the upcoming 24 hours.

NOTE 2: ESTOFEX is not responsible for forecasting any tropical storm activity. This is just an additional information and therefore captured as a "side-note". For more informations, please contact the following address of the Satellite Analysis Branch (http://www.ssd.noaa....ns/archive.html,[sAB]).

As of 18 UTC (7th Nov.), the Satellite Analysis Branch upgraded the depression over the W-Mediterranean to "Tropical system 01M", as convection persisted for an adequate time atop the center. Since then, deep convection weakened somewhat with warming cloud tops next to the center. Nevertheless, very good banding is now present in all quadrants with good outflow atop (especially to the NE, pointing to a 30 m/s 300 hPa jet). A Dvorak number-pressure relation was used for the pressure classification (also at 21Z at the 7th, a ship at position N 41°36' , E 6°06' reported a pressure of 1005.0 mb with 38kt winds from 160°). The final wind strength reflects the intensity of the latest SAB guidance.

There remains some time left for further intensification, before geopotential heights slowly increase during the end of the forecast period. We would not be surprised to see another flare-up of DMC along the center due to the convective cycle of those features (peaking during the morning hours). The N-outflow may weaken somewhat as the upper jet to the north weakens, but at the same time the southern outflow channel could take profit of a 300 hPa streak, which crosses Sicily during the forecast from SW to NE. SSTs remain at or above 20°C, whereas 500 hPa temperatures gradually warm up 1-2K until 06Z. Combining all those effects, some further organization/strengthening is forecast if this system can support more convective bursts along the center before overall conditions become somewhat less favorable during the night hours onwards.

The storm motion is handeled badly by the models...without surprise. 01M is captured in a very weak steering flow and most models now show a system, which meanders around between the Balearic Islands and Corsica/Sardinia. In any case, residents along the adjacent coasts should keep a close eye on the further development of this feature as bands of strong convection may bring heavy downpours next to gusty winds.

A level 1 was issued not for the system itself (as we do not forecast tropical cyclone activity), but for the showers/thunderstorms, which accompany that cyclone. The level 1 covers heavy rainfall and strong to isolated severe wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

... Sicily, Ionian Sea and S-Italy ...

A 25 m/s mid-level streak enters the area of interest from the SW during the start of the forecast and shifts to the NE while weakening. This causes a rapid increase of the 0-6km bulk shear to the order of 20 m/s and more. An overlap of 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE and aforementioned shear assist in a sector, where organized multicells/isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and strong to isolated severe wind gusts will be the main hazard with those storms. The set-up supports the development of a cluster of showers/thunderstorms over S-Italy/N-Ionian Sea, which may affect parts of Albania with heavy rainfall during the night. Hence the level 1 was expanded well to the east.

... Parts of Portugal ...

A frontal boundary is forecast to affect far W-Portugal after 00Z onwards. A plume of subtropical air is advected towards Portugal ahead of this front as sampled by latest MIMIC-TPW data. As mid-levels start to cool down atop that moisture tongue, instability increases with 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE forecast. At the same time, a surface trough strengthens just west of Portugal and assists in a backing wind field. This results in augmented directional shear (combined with ageostrophic deflection onshore) and hence thunderstorms may gain some organization. There still exist uncertainties how fast the front will move onshore, but current thinking is that at least a few storms occur before 06Z. Marginal hail and strong wind gusts accompany those storms. An isolated tornado event along the coast is possible.

post-6667-0-34121600-1320750483.jpg

post-6667-0-55822900-1320750254_thumb.pn

post-6667-0-34121600-1320750483_thumb.jp

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...