Tropical Cyclone 04 A

[Somerset Squall]

Another tropical cyclone has formed in the Arabian Sea, southeast of Oman/Yemen and southeast of where TC Keila formed last week. Intensity is 30kts. The cyclone has formed from invest 96A.

04A is in a moderately sheared environment with modestly warm sea surface temperatures. This may allow for some modest intensification, but JTWC are not expecting the system to become intense as the upper level environment and the ocean heat content do not support this, and shear is set to rise as the cyclone heads towards the northwest. 04A is epxected to curve west-southwestwards and move into the Gulf Of Aden. Here, waters are warmer, but shear is set to remain unfavourable at this time. Because of this, 04A should dissipate in the Gulf Of Aden in around 4 to 5 days time.

[knocker]

[Somerset Squall]

04A has intensified slightly to 35kts whilst moving northwestwards. Some further modest intensification is likely. 04A should turn towards the west-southwest as the ridge to the northeast builds westwards to the north of the cyclone. This motion will take 04A over Socotra Island and then into the Horn Of Africa, where dissipation will occur.

[Somerset Squall]

04A is in trouble this morning. Strong shear has impacted the cyclone and stripped the convection from the LLC, leaving it partially exposed. The convection is becoming shallower with time, and less organised. 04A is expected to dissipate in a day or two as it continues to head slowly northwards. The cyclone is no longer expected to track towards the Horn Of Africa.