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December CET


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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

With November looking set to become a rather anonymous month weather wise and nothing in the way of cold and snow at the moment, it looks like we'll have to look forward to December for anything interesting. A time of festive joy and in recent years it has been a month of festive weather including the record breaking December last year. And whenever snow and cold is around next month then there will always be the speculation of a white christmas.

However, a very mild autumn has followed a cool summer and there has been littled deviation in temperatures since summer and some may say even late Febuary. However, as we all know, previous Novembers that have shown little indication of cold weather have been followed by severe winters and Decembers like 2009 which say cold and snow arrive mid month.

I'm hoping to see yet another cold and snowy December (which I believe is the best time of the year to see snow), however our current pattern is very stubborn with the euro high. The question is, how long will this mild, dull, t-shirt weather last and could we potentially see this prolonged spell of temperatures around the mid teens last from May all the way to December? Then, once this pattern finishes, then the question is what will follow and for how long and of course when will the winter start?

I'm going to stick my neck out and go for 2.8C with an average to mild start, a cooler middle and a very cold end.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

I'm going to stick my neck out and go for 2.8C with an average to mild start, a cooler middle and a very cold end.

I'm going to wait to the end of the month rather then just guess.

Far too early yet me thinks

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Earliest cet thread ever? I don't think this is necessary, I mean, I've started some early threads around the 17-22 area of the month, but we haven't even had half of November, and to declare it looks to be non-descript is nonsense.

Anyway, I will make my estimate on the 18th-22nd as always, but 4.5c-5c is my current estimate.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Bit early isn't it?

12th of November!

Surly this could have waited to around the 25th were not even half way yet.

Edited by Gavin D
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

A bit silly to have this so early. Ill close it for now and open it this time next week.

Thanks :)

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Hope mods don't mind me resurrecting this thread now, but I note that it was stated the thread would start up in a weeks time from last saturday..

Anyhow, think it is an apt time to start it - would be interested to hear some early views this weekend.

Recent Decembers have been particularly varied with lots of cold snowy weather but also some mild wet weather. The last three have seen notably very cold and snowy conditions. Will Dec 2011 produce similiar goods?

I won't be giving my take on things until next weekend at the earliest, but at this stage I would be highly surprised to see Dec retrun a similiar above anomaly as October and Nov 2011 - thats all I am saying.

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I am leaning towards a fairly zonal first half but with polar maritime shots (briefly) preventing the CET from being too high, the second half of the month will likely feature a high sat pretty much on top of us or just east.

4.3-4.8C is where i am leaning.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

I have very similar thoughts SB.

Very zonal with no real arctic outbreak with brief northerly topplers late on in the month. Generally dominated by lows tracking towards the Shetlands and high pressure remaining rather southerly, a dominance of alternating Pm and Tm incursions, with the odd southerly tracking low giving wet weather for the majority.

4.9c, 0.3c above average

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

Hope mods don't mind me resurrecting this thread now, but I note that it was stated the thread would start up in a weeks time from last saturday..

Anyhow, think it is an apt time to start it - would be interested to hear some early views this weekend.

Recent Decembers have been particularly varied with lots of cold snowy weather but also some mild wet weather. The last three have seen notably very cold and snowy conditions. Will Dec 2011 produce similiar goods?

I won't be giving my take on things until next weekend at the earliest, but at this stage I would be highly surprised to see Dec retrun a similiar above anomaly as October and Nov 2011 - thats all I am saying.

Dec 2008 wasn't that exceptional for cold and snow. It was generally cold with frequent polar maritime air in the first half, and some short lived snowfall for some areas in the first week, although conditions in the cold first half were never any real major cold spells, and snow never lay on the ground for more than a day. It then turned much milder for a week up to Christmas before a Rex Block built over the Xmas period and gave the coldest weather of the month in the last few days - but largely due to an inversion and there was no snow at all during this spell.

It is certainly true to say that despite overall warming in most if not all other months in the year over the last 20 years or so, December has bucked that trend and has if anything got colder over the last 20 years compared to the 1970s and 1980s when December was often much milder than January and February.

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I have merged the new thread by Damianslaw with the old closed one, no point have two threads on this topic.

Just a quick point, is everyone happy with the rules, i.e. using Met Office figures and 1971-2000 as base criteria.

Any preferred changes post them here (when the thread reopens) or let me know via PM.

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Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

2.2c my thoughts have changed greatly and now think it is more likely to get colder and colder as time goes on now.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

5.3c for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Just did some work on Durham University's temperature series and the 71-00 series for December had averages of 7.0c/1.5c (4.25c), whilst the 81-00 series was 6.7c/1.1c (3.9c) so we did buck the trend of warming in every other month. I'm going for a slightly milder than average December at Durham.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

4.3c

A more or less average December with some snow, some frost, some wind, some rain.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

I think a slightly colder than average 4.9C; a cool start but heading back to average into the final 2/3rds of the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

What's the average CET for December please?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Just a quick point, is everyone happy with the rules, i.e. using Met Office figures and 1971-2000 as base criteria.

Any preferred changes post them here (when the thread reopens) or let me know via PM.

We should switch to the 1981-2010 average.

What's the average CET for December please?

4.8C is the 1981-2010 average.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Just a quick point, is everyone happy with the rules, i.e. using Met Office figures and 1971-2000 as base criteria.

Any preferred changes post them here (when the thread reopens) or let me know via PM.

I personally would like to see a clear cut off date for an individuals forecast for a given CET month.

Last Decmber we had some 1/2/3 or wasn't the winner 4 days late in their forecast ?.Even with penalties I think its unfair , you have 2 weeks to post.

I will wait to the end of november for this one. Maybe a max of 1 day late.

Edited by stewfox
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Cheers both for those suggestions.

I have no problem moving over to 1981-2010 and an exact cutoff is possible, but we could have

-10 = 1 day late

-30 = 2 days late

-50 = 3 days late

with no entries after this.

Thoughts on the above, agree or disagree please let me know.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Cheers both for those suggestions.

I have no problem moving over to 1981-2010 and an exact cutoff is possible, but we could have

-10 = 1 day late

-30 = 2 days late

-50 = 3 days late

with no entries after this.

Thoughts on the above, agree or disagree please let me know.

Agree.

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Yep agree julian.

After doing some research, the 81-10 winter averages are very interesting at Durham University.

December- 3.9c

January- 3.7c

February- 4.1c

Very weird for February to be so much milder than January, and even milder than December!

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