December CET

[BornFromTheVoid]

Cheers both for those suggestions.

I have no problem moving over to 1981-2010 and an exact cutoff is possible, but we could have

-10 = 1 day late

-30 = 2 days late

-50 = 3 days late

with no entries after this.

Thoughts on the above, agree or disagree please let me know.

If it's not too much hassle, how many points would an average guess achieve each month and what were the old penalties?

[J10]

If it's not too much hassle, how many points would an average guess achieve each month and what were the old penalties?

The Old penalties were -10pts per day with no theoretical limit although I usually cut off around Day 5, and there were rarely entries after this.

In the Season comp,an average entry is worth around 50pts, and in the overall it is close to closer to 30pts,

The differential is due to the points system being based on rankings, so the slight increase in entries over the year compared to the season, is more than offset by the increased number of months.

[DAVID SNOW]

1.5

ta

[Optimus Prime]

4.8C is the 1981-2010 average.

1981-2010 average is actually 4.6c.

1971-2000 5.1c

1961-1990 4.7c

[BlueHedgehog074]

Gonna go for 2.8*C, with a possible chance of a cool start.

[Backtrack]

We should switch to the 1981-2010 average.

4.8C is the 1981-2010 average.

Thanks SB

Going to go for 6.0C. Above average with some cooler shots, not much snow for lower ground this month, if any at all.

Edited November 20, 2011 by Backtrack

[BornFromTheVoid]

The Old penalties were -10pts per day with no theoretical limit although I usually cut off around Day 5, and there were rarely entries after this.

In the Season comp,an average entry is worth around 50pts, and in the overall it is close to closer to 30pts,

The differential is due to the points system being based on rankings, so the slight increase in entries over the year compared to the season, is more than offset by the increased number of months.

In that case I'm happy enough with the old system of points deductions. -10/day with a cut off at day 5 seems fair to me...

[damianslaw]

Dec 2008 wasn't that exceptional for cold and snow. It was generally cold with frequent polar maritime air in the first half, and some short lived snowfall for some areas in the first week, although conditions in the cold first half were never any real major cold spells, and snow never lay on the ground for more than a day. It then turned much milder for a week up to Christmas before a Rex Block built over the Xmas period and gave the coldest weather of the month in the last few days - but largely due to an inversion and there was no snow at all during this spell.

It is certainly true to say that despite overall warming in most if not all other months in the year over the last 20 years or so, December has bucked that trend and has if anything got colder over the last 20 years compared to the 1970s and 1980s when December was often much milder than January and February.

Dec 2008 was a very mixed month - it was the coldest start to Dec since 1978, Scotland, N Eng, saw a fair bit of snow in the opening days which stuck on the ground in these parts up until the 10th with frequent freeze/slight thaw action. The run up tio christmas was very mild, but then we saw a cold settled spell in the last week - overall I think of Dec 2008 as a rather cold month especially for Dec, but I agree it never delivered any significant cold or heavy snow with few mornings with snow cover for many.

Its rare for Dec to pass without at least one cold spell however short courtesy of polar/arctic outbreak or high pressure near/overhead, mind dec 06 and 07 really struggled to deliver any proper cold weather a few frosty nights and one or two days with maxes of 3-4 degrees were the best they could offer - only just qualifying as a cold spell in my book. Prior to 2006 the last truly dreadful december for cold weather was 1997, I shudder when I think of that month and the rest of that winter - but alas we don't have a super el nino this year unlike winter 97/98.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6.6C dominated by the Atlantic, Dec will be more typical of 0ctober only stormier,

looks like Karyo on the model thread has written december off as well

Edited November 20, 2011 by snow? norfolk n chance

[Aceman]

6.2 is my guess, purely based on recent gloomsville (albeit factual) posts from the top people on nw.

[Polar Gael]

6.1ºC for me please. A Green Christmas beckons.

[Stationary Front]

5.9 It's got to happen at some point!

[BornFromTheVoid]

For now, I'll go with 5.9C too. Which amazingly, would be only the 2nd mildest December since 1995!

[Isolated Frost]

For now, I'll go with 5.9C too. Which amazingly, would be only the 2nd mildest December since 1995!

Yep. A cool decade or two for December's. Infact the 81-10 December is 0.15c colder than the 81-10 February here at Durham!

The moment of joy happens of course at 3:35am tomorrow morning, as for the first time since February 28, the meteorological winter is in the hi-res suite of the GFS. Hip, hip, HOORAY!

[Liam J]

6.5c, a fairly average to milder December coming up.

[Isolated Frost]

6.5c, a fairly average to milder December coming up.

I wouldn't necessarily say 6.5c is average, it would be the tied mildest December since 1989 (2006, 6.5c), and it would be a rather massive 1.9c above the 81-10 average, which is comparable to the mild October we have just had.

[frozencanals]

Hi Folks

Can I go for 5.0, not expecting much in the way of cold until the new year period, how about getting snowed in on New Years eve :-)

Cheers

FC

[95 Degrees]

4.9c for me, a warmer december than the last three with the Euro high or Atlantic keeping temperatures up, but still think a brief cold spell will occur in the 2nd half, not lasting long though.

Edited November 22, 2011 by BrightInBrighton

[Paul T]

2.2oC

Its all got to have a break and switch around at some point! An Easterly fit for February mid month.....

[summer blizzard]

I'm in two minds..

On the one hand my personal expectation is for a generally zonal pattern to persist before high pressure builds very close to the UK resulting in a near average outcome.

On the other hand the prediction method i use goes 2.5C above average.

Screw it, 4.1C is my prediction which is 0.5C below average.

[Weather-history]

Somehow I can't see this quirk continuing

Dec 2006: 6.5C

Dec 2007: 4.9C

Dec 2008: 3.5C

Dec 2009: 3.1C

Dec 2010: -0.7C

The last 4 Decembers have all be colder than its predecessor.

[Methuselah]

I'll guess at 4.8C, please...

[trickydicky]

Mr Data, what is the biggest swing year to year for the same month? i.e say if June 1804 was 5.0c and June 1804 was 10.5c?

I'm going for 5.1c

[Weather-history]

Mr Data, what is the biggest swing year to year for the same month? i.e say if June 1804 was 5.0c and June 1804 was 10.5c?

I'm going for 5.1c

January 1795 and 1796

January 1795 was -3.1C whilst January 1796 was 7.3C, a difference of 10.4C

[shedhead]

Mr D, apols if you have done and posted this previously, but have their been many occasions when anomolouly low Dec CET's have followed anomolously high Nov CET's? Or is there a precident for

cold weather to take longer to develop following very mild Nov's? Cheers.