December CET

[Optimus Prime]

^5.9C

That figure has never been achieved in December before.

[Mark Bayley]

5.2c please

[Isolated Frost]

I have very similar thoughts SB.

Very zonal with no real arctic outbreak with brief northerly topplers late on in the month. Generally dominated by lows tracking towards the Shetlands and high pressure remaining rather southerly, a dominance of alternating Pm and Tm incursions, with the odd southerly tracking low giving wet weather for the majority.

4.9c, 0.3c above average

As usual I will keep my guess, I feel it will be dominated by slightly mild weather, averaging 6c on most days, but some days with cooler Pm influence, especially at the start giving 3-4c means, and the odd northerly toppler giving us 0-2c means. I really doubt high pressure will land on or that near the uk apart an optimistic extension from the south, and that would make it notable because most recent Decembers have had hp sitting on top of us to my recollection.

So 4.9c for me thanks

[Weather-history]

That figure has never been achieved in December before.

Yes I know I have mentioned it earlier in the thread.

[damianslaw]

Ok here are my thoughts and CET prediction:

A very near average month - 4.5 degrees, much milder than the past three but not quite as mild as Dec 2007.

The first 10 days - predominantly unsettled with alternating polar maritime air/tropical maritime air, very wet for the north and windy everywhere, quite cold over scotland and far n england and n ireland as polar maritime air digs in deepest here with chance of one or two shortlived low level snowfalls - nothing severe mind.

From about the 10th - 15th becoming more settled as we see heights ridge in from the SW bringing dry conditions for much of england and wales, with fog and frost but due to warm uppers quite mild days I suspect accept where fog lingers. Scotland and N ireland will hold onto more unsettled wet and windy conditions and milder here than during the first 10 days.

Second half of the month - probably see a return of the atlantic for all as heights fall back into europe - a generally westerly flow but with occasional poalr maritime blasts for scotland and n ireland/n england - with low pressure tracking ever southwards as we begin to see heights build more strongly to our NE - if these build strongly enough than it could be colder than i suspect but I think they will only really start to build towards the end of the month as a result the end of the month could end up rather cold with the first proper northerly. Christmas I suspect will be green rather than white however much it pains me to say. - but new year could be a very different story..

As a whole scotland will be notably colder than england and wales and the highlands look like seeing very heavy early snowfall - good news for the ski resorts. I also expect Dec quite comfortably will be the mildest month of the of the winter - so a revert back to what we would normally expect of our winters - with the core of winter cold coming in January and February.

Edited November 27, 2011 by damianslaw

[virtualsphere]

7.0C for me please - have a feeling it could be mild, wet and pretty windy though would like very much to be proved wrong.

[paul tall]

6.0 thanks.

( I use the 61-90 average, as I assume this is the standard WMO reference point )

Yes because it was a cold average and suits The Climate Change Industry.

Mild for me too, but just for the hell of it...

2.1º

[Lynxus]

6.5º

[DAVID SNOW]

Yes because it was a cold average and suits The Climate Change Industry.

Mild for me too, but just for the hell of it...

2.1º

If my calculations are correct,last week of december,what a blast that will be.

cold that is.

[Harve]

Yes because it was a cold average and suits The Climate Change Industry.

Mild for me too, but just for the hell of it...

2.1º

The 'industry' maintains that global temperatures have been rising for decades / centuries, but particularly fast since 1960-1990. It also happens that the CET has been rising too. I'm sure that within the context of the last 350 years the CET in those decades was above average, though don't quote me on that. If they really wanted to use a cold average as a benchmark then they'd use something like 1710-1740.

5.0 please.

[The watcher]

Slightly Below Average: 4.5c

Mainly due to some inversion cold around the middle of the month with milder conditions around the Christmas period, average conditions early in the period.

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

6.5C estimated

[Roger J Smith]

Table of entries and CET facts and trivia

______________________________________

will update on Wednesday night

9.0 .. reserved for Mr Craig Evans

8.9 ..

8.8 ..

8.7 ..

8.6 ..

8.5 ..

8.4 ..

8.3 ..

8.2 ..

8.1 .. (joint) warmest 1934, 1974

8.0 ..

7.9 ..

7.8 .. Robbie Garrett

7.7 .. third warmest 1852

7.6 ..

7.5 ..

7.4 ..

7.3 ..

7.2 .. The PIT

7.1 ..

7.0 .. mrsmall, virtualsphere

6.9 ..

6.8 ..

6.7 .. Gavin D

6.6 .. snow? norfolk n chance,

6.5 .. Liam J, kold weather, Lynxus, OldGreggsTundraBoy

6.4 ..

6.3 .. Optimus Prime, Alex

6.2 .. Aceman, fozfoster

6.1 .. Polar Gael

6.0 .. Backtrack, corrigan87, Styx

5.9 .. Stationary Front, BornFromTheVoid, Mr_Data

5.8 ..

5.7 ..

5.6 ..

5.5 ..

5.4 .. Roger J Smith

5.3 .. SteveB

5.2 .. Mark Bayley

5.1 .. trickydicky, Lomondsnowstorm, Eugene .... ---- 1971-2000 average ---

5.0 .. frozencanals, Harve

4.9 .. Isolated Frost, SP1986, BrightInBrighton, Anonymous21

4.8 .. Pete Tattum

4.7 .. ................................. ---- 1961-90 average ---

4.6 .. Blast from the Past, calum .... ---- 1981-2010 average ---

4.5 .. damianslaw, The watcher

4.4 ..

4.3 .. Aaron

4.2 ..

4.1 .. summer blizzard ................. ----- median value of all years 1659-2010 -----

4.0 ..

3.9 .. BARRY

3.8 ..

3.7 .. Snowstorm1

3.6 .. snowlover2009

3.5 ..

3.4 ..

3.3 ..

3.2 ..

3.1 ..

3.0 ..

2.9 ..

2.8 .. Rainbow Snow

2.7 .. A Winter's Tale

2.6 ..

2.5 ..

2.4 ..

2.3 ..

2.2 .. Paul T

2.1 .. paul tall

2.0 ..

1.9 ..

1.8 ..

1.7 ..

1.6 ..

1.5 .. DAVID SNOW

1.4 ..

1.3 ..

1.2 ..

1.1 ..

1.0 ..

0.9 ..

0.8 ..

0.7 ..

0.6 ..

0.5 ..

0.4 ..

0.3 ..

0.2 ..

0.1 ..

0.0 ..

-0.1 .

-0.2 .

-0.3 .

-0.4 .

-0.5 . third coldest 1676

-0.6 .

-0.7 . Second coldest 2010

-0.8 . Coldest on record 1890

_______________________________________________________________________

Lots of prime spots still available ... check your entry against my ancient eyesight

I will edit in as many as the site allows, then copy the file for a more complete roundup on Thursday morning.

[su rui ke]

Table of entries and CET facts and trivia

______________________________________

How about adding in the December CETs that are needed for the highest and lowest annual CETs to be recorded?

How about also adding in the December CETs that are needed for the highest and lowest annual CETs to be recorded?

Edited November 28, 2011 by su rui ke

[A Winter's Tale]

Table of entries and CET facts and trivia

______________________________________

-0.7 . Second coldest 2010

-0.8 . Coldest on record 1890

_______________________________________________________________________

I never knew 1890 was the coldest and I though 2010 was something like -0.9C.

Edited November 28, 2011 by A Winter's Tale

[Paranoid]

I think i'll go for 6.4, but i have a horrible feeling in my mind that it will be warmer than that. Hope not, i enjoy the nice crisp mornings you get in winter.

[Roger J Smith]

I never knew 1890 was the coldest and I though 2010 was something like -0.9C.

Bookmark this and you'll have all the data instantly sorted.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

By the way, -0.7 is something like -0.9, no?

[reef]

A rather mild 6.8C for me, so just missing out on the warmest annual CET in the series.

[Bluebreezer54]

I'll opt for a slightly above average 5.6c please

[sparky1972]

good morning, my first punt at this based on nothing but gut feeling, i am going to go for a very mild 8.4c.

[coram]

Many of the conventional forecasts (Met Office, GP) indicate a mild December, but I think people are holding back from posting because Mr. Corbyn has gone for cold and this has created doubts for many people. I would favour the latter and therefore I'm going for

3.8

Thanks

[Milhouse]

Not seeing indications for such a mild month as the past 3.

Therefore 5.2c.

[godber]

4.8c for me please,wet and windy start,settled mid month,cold end.

[Optimus Prime]

Looking increasingly likely the first 5 days will be below normal. Perhaps averaging around 4.0c (1.6c below 71-000 average against the first 5 days)

4.0c is certainly very chilly for early December but compare that to last year. First 5 days averaged -2.9c (8.5c below normal)

[sundog]

I will go for a bit below average at 4.5c