Alps Weather Update 15th November

[J10]

Introduction

After the first blog post of the winter, looking at current conditions this is the first forecast for the season. Each day of the forecast, I will post 3 images, the first will be a 850HPA and Pressure chart for the whole of Europe. The other two will be concentrate on the Alps, and will be a 850HPa temps gauge and a 0c isotherm chart aka freezing level. The forecast will typically be issued in the evening usually on a Friday, abed on the GFS 12Hz chart for details, but will also take into account other models for synoptic patterns.

Current Situation

There is High pressure centered (1028mb) over Southern Scandinavia, this is feeding in mild air from the South East for much of the Alps and for Western parts of Europe. However this is also feeding in colder air for Russia and NE Scandinavia (for a time). Low pressure is attempting to push in from the Atlantic but the High pressure is blocking this at the present time. This ensures that the mild start to November for much of Western Europe (including the UK) is maintained.

Synoptic Progression

In the next 24 hours, there will only be slow progression with the High Pressure sinking to be centred over NE Poland, and with S/SE winds remaining in charge over the Alps, Atlantic fronts will attempt to fringe into the UK. By Thursday this continuing with High pressure continuing to edge further South and East allowing SW winds over the UK and S to SW winds over the Alps, again remaining very much on the mild side.

However Friday and Saturday (T+72 and T+96) sees the High Pressure starting to consolidate a little over Eastern Europe, albeit a flabby High pressure (1024mb) with light S to SE winds for the UK and the Alps.

A case of deja vu for the period after T+96, with the Atlantic attempting to nudge back in and push the High Pressure back into Eastern Europe. Winds SW over the UK, S/SE to variable over the Alps and very light.

Alps Detail

Wednesday 15th Nov - Dry and largely sunny, Freezing Levels (pm) 1800-2000m in SE Austria to 2600-2800m further North and West. 850Hpa ranging from +1c in SE Austria, 4-7c generally, 9c on the Austria/Switzerland border.

Thursday 16th Nov - Freezing Levels (am) Overall FL down to 500-1000m, coldest in Eastern and NE Austria, Germany away from the border and Northern Switzerland, however much milder in the Tyrol FL around 2000m.

At midday, FL (pm) rising to 2200-2400 for France and Switzerland, 2600m elsewhere. 850Hpa ranging from +3-4c in E Austria and W Switzerland, 5-7c generally. Dry throughout day and night.

Friday 17th Nov - Overall FL (am) down to 500-1000m, coldest in Northern and Eastern Austria, much of Southern Germany and Northern Switzerland, 300-500m here.

During the day FL rising to 2200-2500 for France and Southern Switzerland, 2600m elsewhere). 850Hpa ranging from +3-4c in E Austria and W Switzerland, 5-7c generally. Dry throughout day and night.

Dry throughout day and night.

Saturday 18th Nov - Overall FL (am) down to 500-1000m, coldest in Eastern and NE Austria, Germany away from the border and Northern Switzerland, through to Geneva 300-500m here, however much milder in the Tyrol FL around 2000m.

FL rising to 2200-2500 for France and most of Switzerland, 2600-2800m elsewhere). 850Hpa ranging from +4-7c generally. Dry throughout day and night. Dry throughout day and night.

Sunday 19th Nov - Overall FL (am) down to 500-1000m, coldest in Eastern and NE Austria, Southern Germany and Northern Switzerland, 300-500m here,

FL rising to 2200-2500 for France and most of Switzerland, 2600-2800m elsewhere). 850Hpa ranging from +4-7c generally. Dry throughout day and night. Dry throughout day and night.

Monday 29th Nov and Tuesday 30th Nov - Overall FL (am) down to 500-1000m, coldest in Eastern and NE Austria, Germany away from the border and Northern Switzerland, 300-500m here,

FL rising to 2300-2500m generally. Dry throughout day and night.850Hpa ranging from +4-7c generally on Monday, 4-6c on Tuesday. Dry throughout day and night. Dry throughout day and night.

Summary

Not the most enthralling set of charts to be starting the forecast season. These charts would be perfect if the slopes were snow bound and you were looking to enjoy skiing with a warmish sun on your back. But for snow building these conditions are not great.

At a push, those resorts wise or lucky enough to have snow cannons will be able to get them operational overnight.

[Isolated Frost]

Hi there, are these charts available on NW Extra somewhere? I cannot find them? Thanks.

[J10]

The Alps Charts are available for free from the Ski Centre from the Weather menu.

[Isolated Frost]

Thanks. Great analysis and I hope to view more and hope for a colder outlook to originate. Would I be right in saying a jet crashing into Iberia and digging into the med, with lows moving into the alps as the snowiest synoptic for the region?

[J10]

Atlantic fronts can bring a lot of snow for the Alps providing the air isn't too mild especially at lower resorts, any Polar Maritime NW flow is very good (and normally cold enough) while NE blasts are also very good although these tend to be a bit dry the further South and West you go.

A southerly tracking jet as you mention can be very snowy indeed.

[nick sussex]

Seeing as the Pyrenees always get ignored! I thought I'd update the situation here.

Last week in the western Pyrenees there was some heavy snow but only above 2000m, some of this was lost during the recent mild conditions, however there has been some fresh snow today but again at higher elevations.

The opening date for Cauterets, my nearest resort is due for the 26th November, I'm not sure if this will get put back, much depends on which output is correct, looking at tonights ECM it does cut several weakish features se into Iberia and although not accompanied by very low temps, the 850's would support snow lower down than the recent 2000m level. This could be just enough to open at least the upper runs.

The French papers have commented on the very poor conditions and its especially worrying for the resorts considering the disastrous end of last season where many shut before Easter. At the moment complete panic hasn't set in as its still early, looking at the overall pattern it maybe that here in the western Pyrenees we might get what snow is on offer.

If the resorts do manage to open on time here it would be close to a miracle given the mild autumn so far.

[johnholmes]

Thanks. Great analysis and I hope to view more and hope for a colder outlook to originate. Would I be right in saying a jet crashing into Iberia and digging into the med, with lows moving into the alps as the snowiest synoptic for the region?

It depends which side of the Aps you are.

Flows from anywhere between west and about NNE wil lgive snow, with a suitable 850mb temperature and precipitation of course, for all northern Alps resorts. The situation you mention, 'lows moving into the Alps..' is more usually lows tracking ESE after the jet has moved into southern France. A well known effect is the development of the Genoa low when deep cold air pushes down the Rhone valley.

Alpine resorts over/south of the Alps tend to do best in these situations so long as the low does NOT track into the Alps but stays south of them.

I have skied for the past 23 years in Wengen and the Jungfrau region and without exception while I have been there its the Pm/Am airmass which gives the large falls in that area. Its fairly rare, cannot remember when, about 5 to 7 years ago, soon after returning when a super dump occurred over much of the Alps that was a deep low, in cold air, that sat over/near the Alps. Huge and I mean huge amounts of snow fell with several areas having severe avalanche events with quite a number being killed. One resort, forget which one, was worst affected in Austria. In the Jungfrau region, all cable cars post buses and railways stopped operating for 4 days. An event unheard of in that region since the railway arrived in the eraly 1900's.

sorry to chatter on!

It depends which side of the Aps you are.

Flows from anywhere between west and about NNE wil lgive snow, with a suitable 850mb temperature and precipitation of course, for all northern Alps resorts. The situation you mention, 'lows moving into the Alps..' is more usually lows tracking ESE after the jet has moved into southern France. A well known effect is the development of the Genoa low when deep cold air pushes down the Rhone valley.

Alpine resorts over/south of the Alps tend to do best in these situations so long as the low does NOT track into the Alps but stays south of them.

I have skied for the past 23 years in Wengen and the Jungfrau region and without exception while I have been there its the Pm/Am airmass which gives the large falls in that area. Its fairly rare, cannot remember when, about 5 to 7 years ago, soon after returning when a super dump occurred over much of the Alps that was a deep low, in cold air, that sat over/near the Alps. Huge and I mean huge amounts of snow fell with several areas having severe avalanche events with quite a number being killed. One resort, forget which one, was worst affected in Austria. In the Jungfrau region, all cable cars post buses and railways stopped operating for 4 days. An event unheard of in that region since the railway arrived in the eraly 1900's.

snow depths of well over 250cm were recorded at some places in the Jungfrau area, even more in Austria and other parts of the Alps, this in a period of about 96 hours, less in some places.

sorry to chatter on!

Edited November 15, 2011 by johnholmes

[Isolated Frost]

Thanks for that Julian and John Very much appreciated!