Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

[kold weather]

Right here is a new topic for the new week. Will the models show any changes away from the pattern we've been entrenched in? Will the Euro High show its hand in the models or will we shift to something seasonal...or even cold?

As per normal please respect each others views, especially at this time of year and keep on topic!!

[snowlover2009]

So lets see, the ecm was on the mild side and is not supported by the mean and then gfs throws us into deep cold. Notice my other posts a few pages back about lows undercutting, which is what we should look for. If we get undercuts of secondary lows you get runs like tonights 18z, incredible. Here is a few:

Wintry showers to the north and feeling cold and raw in the wind:

http://hw.nwstatic.c...117/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...7/ukmaxtemp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...141/h500slp.png

One of those days where the temperatures get colder through the day and rain turning wintry in the north:

http://hw.nwstatic.c...5/ukmaxtemp.png maxes of 1 to 5c in the north and wind making it feel bitter and raw

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../h850t850eu.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...hgt500-1000.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...0/ukmintemp.png a very cold night -5 in some parts with a chart like that

http://hw.nwstatic.c...180/h500slp.png

FI:

http://hw.nwstatic.c...228/h500slp.png stormy and cold with cold winds

Remind you of something, go back to the end of November/december 2010. Of course we have a way to go yet and the heights are not as good, but the low over the UK is nearly spot on:

SNOW/BLIZZARDS for the north and east http://hw.nwstatic.c...252/h500slp.png

Severe frost: http://hw.nwstatic.c...2/ukmintemp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...384/h500slp.png Not perfect, but it is there and nice to see

Wow, what a ramp. Great signs after the benign autumn, things can only get better. Wintry showers possible end of the week and the weekend in the north if verified! Wow! Lets just say that is an amazing for cold and snow fans, if we don't get close to this, we should by far get something seasonal or more normal this coming week and to start December IMO.

Also, a new thread, new pattern. Great

[I remember Atlantic 252]

control run looking very cold as well to end nov/start Dec

[SP1986]

The GFS operational looks a little dodgy to me on the 18z, high pressure setting over southern England for all of 6 hours, then synoptics like last year, only to be blown away by an incoming jet? I'm just not ready to believe that will happen personally.

I do believe somewhere in between the ECM and GFS is likely, but both outputs probably to mild/cold for any kind of confidence in them.

The GFS has been poor recently, changing from day to day, I'd be very cautious about such an output.

[snowlover2009]

The GFS operational looks a little dodgy to me on the 18z, high pressure setting over southern England for all of 6 hours, then synoptics like last year, only to be blown away by an incoming jet? I'm just not ready to believe that will happen personally.

I do believe somewhere in between the ECM and GFS is likely, but both outputs probably to mild/cold for any kind of confidence in them.

The GFS has been poor recently, changing from day to day, I'd be very cautious about such an output.

I think both models have been up and down. The ecm has no support tonight anyway, it was an outlier and is not supported by the other ensembles look:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1921.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Anyone know why I can't post links or images? When I press the icon my screen goes grey and I can't do anything with it, is it a setting issue or something else?

Off topic I know but need help here

BFTP

[kold weather]

That is one good snippet of info, the fact that the 12z ECM ensembles look nothing at all like the 12z op run and keep the main troughing well and truely to our north/east rather than shidfting it back west like the 12z ECM tries to do.

[CreweCold]

The GFS operational looks a little dodgy to me on the 18z, high pressure setting over southern England for all of 6 hours, then synoptics like last year, only to be blown away by an incoming jet? I'm just not ready to believe that will happen personally.

I do believe somewhere in between the ECM and GFS is likely, but both outputs probably to mild/cold for any kind of confidence in them.

The GFS has been poor recently, changing from day to day, I'd be very cautious about such an output.

18z ensembles have trended colder in comparison to the 12z run, but yes, caution is the word here.

[snowlover2009]

Anyone know why I can't post links or images? When I press the icon my screen goes grey and I can't do anything with it, is it a setting issue or something else?

Off topic I know but need help here

BFTP

mine is fine, what you wanting to post?

[camiscool]

Is that a good thing?

[snowlover2009]

That is one good snippet of info, the fact that the 12z ECM ensembles look nothing at all like the 12z op run and keep the main troughing well and truely to our north/east rather than shidfting it back west like the 12z ECM tries to do.

yep and the mean is almost a direct northerly and high pressure pushing north into Atlantic, hopefully we can get some heights building. All I have to say, is tonight outputs are the best I have seen since last winter.

[SP1986]

I think both models have been up and down. The ecm has no support tonight anyway, it was an outlier and is not supported by the other ensembles look:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1921.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

I think both models have been up and down. The ecm has no support tonight anyway, it was an outlier and is not supported by the other ensembles look:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1921.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

Id say that above is a darn sight closer to the ECM operational than the 18z GFS is.

Mind you the Atlantic looks very empty, I can't imagine that will be the case come 192 hours.

Something about the GFS 18z seems a little iffy, I think it's probably the lack of a true Greenland High (plateau doesn't count). I imagine it will be changed tomorrow at some point.

[CreweCold]

Just flicking through the 18z ensemble perterbations and there are some very very nice runs in there as we head into December; with a few looking reminiscent of last Nov/Dec

[Mark Neal.]

The thing that shocks me is the fact we go from a very mild run from the 12z to a cold one for 18z, a very almost opposite outlook. Not that i am complaining. But a reminder it is just ONE run and must be taken with a huge sense of caution. I do however have a strong feeling that the 18z is too good to be true. Onwards and upwards anyway!

Mark.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

mine is fine, what you wanting to post?

18z GFS 384 image. Is that a GP Finland HP? :smiliz19:

BFTP

[snowlover2009]

This chart is brilliant:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Euro completely blasted to smithereens! On previous models and outputs the euro high has either moved south or stayed close to us and most of europe, whereas the mean shows it completely gone. The gfs run blasts it away completely too.

[kold weather]

Well the 18z GFS is a more agressive variation to that general theme SP. Too agressive I'm pretty sure but I suppose its a pluasable solution if we were to get real lucky with everything.

[SP1986]

KW, with the 18z it's as if the GFS is trying to set up a -NAO type pattern in a +NAO situation .. that's what I can't really get my head around, doesn't make much sense.

Maybe I'm wrong, but who knows.

[snowlover2009]

18z GFS 384 image. Is that a GP Finland HP? :smiliz19:

BFTP

Just for you:

http://hw.nwstatic.c...384/h500slp.png

is it a good sign? I have to say when I saw this, I just knew this was the Finnish high by the way it looks. Looks like it could set up to be a classic battleground.

http://www.wetterzen...berdeen_ens.png

http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png Look at that steep drop and we never recover till the end! As long as the mean is below 0, the odds for cold and wintriness stays and increases! The control is colder believe it or not.

[summer blizzard]

Correct me if i am wrong, but does the GFS18z not have gales on thursday?

I fear people in their search for cold are missing the great active Atlantic which should excite some on here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

A lot of uncertainty from the ensembles however they do forecast the mean to go below average.

While i do not expect the GFS18z scenario, i do expect some polar air behind the cold fronts even if i get no snow, thus i am happy with the outputs.

[Paul]

Wednesday looks fairly windy, but Thursday could be the one to watch...

[summer blizzard]

Wednesday looks fairly windy, but Thursday could be the one to watch...

Yes, i imagine that if this was even a month ago when winter was not quite so close that such charts would be jumped upon for a classic Autumn gale however they are being completely overlooked right.

I suspect the reason why we get below average uppers in a zonal pattern is actually related to what i stated above, rather then the GIN corridor we look to be getting lows very close the UK.

[kold weather]

Yes the 18z does have a strong wind storm for the north.

Problem is the ECM and the UKMO both have the low a fair bit to the NW of where the GFS has it, though the ECM would likely still produce gales for those on western coasts of Scotland. Does need watching as both the GFS and eventually the ECM bomb it out.

[Mark Neal.]

Yes looks like a windy end to the week up NORTH, further south much quieter..

[shedhead]

KW, with the 18z it's as if the GFS is trying to set up a -NAO type pattern in a +NAO situation .. that's what I can't really get my head around, doesn't make much sense.

Maybe I'm wrong, but who knows.

You won't be wrong, it'll be all change again in the morning and those that are up now will be down again then... that as you know is the nature of this particular beast.