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Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I agree with nick, the window of opportunity is now, we have to get those lows as far enough east as possible so cold air will be able to push down the western flank of depressions with the main polar vortex edging east into scandinavia, this is crucial, although we are unlikely to see a repeat of the big freeze last december, there is a chance of shortlived bursts of cold from the north or northwest and then hopefully more chance of sustained cold in the new year.

Edited by Polar_ Low
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

All short lived - a taster of sorts - as the cold gets shoved away after midweek by a possible 998 low - but I am not looking at that chart too much :mellow:

This indication goes along with that thought:

uk.snow.next3to6days.042e.jpg

rainandsnowscalesum.metric.gif

3 to 6 days Snowfall (issued Mon 21 Nov at 0am GMT)

http://www.snow-fore...maps/dynamic/uk

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Turning cold enough for snow at times over northern mountains in wake of shortwaves moving east in the zonal flow, but that looks about as good as it gets with the current NH upper pattern showing no signs of high latitude blocking for the forseeable future - probably way into early December IMO.

One glimmer of hope that may switch the wind direction to come more from the north/northwest for a few days at least is the ridge over Eern N America working through across the Atlantic, but given the dominance of low polar heights and a strong westerlies, it may get flattened too quickly to bring much influence and bring colder air.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

528 DAM line down to Oxfordshire on the 06z :D

post-6879-0-49800600-1321885574_thumb.pn

Pennines would do well out of this.

Trend was always good for the beginning of December from runs I studied last week - here's hoping.

Ian

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/27989-how-to-try-and-forecast-snow/

perhaps as well to dust this off for the winter season; takes a little while but it does work, and is better than constantly asking will it snow inxxxxx.....

probably the most important parameter-has the model got precipitation over your area. If not its absolutely no use having every other parameter in your favour!

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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

Fingers crossed for middle of next week some real cold in there!

ukmintemp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

As nice as the GFS looks at face value, I do urge all who can to look at the ensembles. The GFS Op is consistently whilst not an outlier one of the colder members of the pack. Many dont seem to agree with the cold the Op wants. Chilly with hill snow maybe but lowland snow...not for the foreseeable probably.

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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

Yeh I don't know how it's thrown up -13c! I can't see it getting lower than -5c myself!

P.S The chart was only done about an hour ago so it is current.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Fairly large difference out in the Atlantic at +72, the feature seems to retreat rather than stand its ground, will be interesting to see how this impacts on the rest of the run

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

As nice as the GFS looks at face value, I do urge all who can to look at the ensembles. The GFS Op is consistently whilst not an outlier one of the colder members of the pack. Many dont seem to agree with the cold the Op wants. Chilly with hill snow maybe but lowland snow...not for the foreseeable probably.

For much of the time the op run follows the mean (for Oxfordshire anyway) with the odd blip here and there, I don't think there are to many people expecting lowland snow from this, certainly not down South and probably not even lowland snow in Scotland. I think people are just happy to see a more seasonal outlook in the models, myself included.

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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

I will be happy if the mountains turn white above 2000ft.That is what I expect. Anything else is an absolute bonus. I worry about the current warm uppers.

Edited by November13
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

There is a slight but fundamental difference between the GFS and the UKMO/ECM today, with the GFS bringing deeper lows slightly further south, and the jet aligned more W-E rather than SW-NE. This results in the Euro high being displaced further south and an increasing tendency for polar maritime incursions, with squally showers and some snow on northern hills. However, the UKMO/ECM keep high pressure firmly entrenched to the SE this side of T+168 giving a mainly warm, moist south-westerly type.

If you take the GFS 06Z at T+144 you will see the jet running on quite a southerly track:

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111121/06/147/h500slp.png

whereas ECM T+144:

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20111120/12/ecm500.144.png

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Posted
  • Location: Half way between Doncaster and Barnsley south yorkshire
  • Location: Half way between Doncaster and Barnsley south yorkshire

There is a slight but fundamental difference between the GFS and the UKMO/ECM today, with the GFS bringing deeper lows slightly further south, and the jet aligned more W-E rather than SW-NE. This results in the Euro high being displaced further south and an increasing tendency for polar maritime incursions, with squally showers and some snow on northern hills. However, the UKMO/ECM keep high pressure firmly entrenched to the SE this side of T+168 giving a mainly warm, moist south-westerly type.

If you take the GFS 06Z at T+144 you will see the jet running on quite a southerly track:

http://hw.nwstatic.c...147/h500slp.png

whereas ECM T+144:

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.144.png

Hi TWS,isn't that yesterdays ECM?.
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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

If the 12z GFS verifies then Saturday will be the first day this season that daytime temps will be in single digits country wide, Something to look forward too. GFS has a much more Westerly regime in this run, so would be a little milder with less PM incursions. GFS winds a massive low up at T114 which was no where near as deep on the 06z. No way is cooler/colder/milder or just plain average sorted yet. If I were a betting man I would go with the last few GFS ensemble means and say average to slightly below average at times. We shall see!!!.

I think that in this kind of pattern it is all about small margins.

Edited by No balls like Snow Balls
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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
However there are reports that the UK could be facing snow later this week as the spell of unseasonably warm weather comes to an end.

And snow will hit the UK by the end of the week, according to the Met Office, who forecast that the Scottish Highlands are likely to see snow on Thursday or Friday.

Edited by Robbie Garrett
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Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey

If the 12z GFS verifies then Saturday will be the first day this season that daytime temps will be in single digits country wide, Something to look forward too. GFS has a much more Westerly regime in this run, so would be a little milder with less PM incursions. GFS winds a massive low up at T114 which was no where near as deep on the 06z. No way is cooler/colder/milder or just plain average sorted yet. If I were a betting man I would go with the last few GFS ensemble means and say average to slightly below average at times. We shall see!!!.

I think that in this kind of pattern it is all about small margins.

http://www.meteociel...map=0&archive=0

That's quite a nice little change :). Would be pretty chilly up north.

I know this is way out in FI but it's a great chart!!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=0

Edited by JamesC
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Fingers crossed for middle of next week some real cold in there!

ukmintemp.png

Saw this and decided to look at the latest GFS as the above seemed hopeful. However the 18z has rain and average temps. on that day! It does appear GFS is on a knife edge, it has lumped on the side of a mobile picture but it cannot decide whether the zonal weather will be cool or average. Either way its nothing to get excited about. At the end of the run (7th December) the UK is trending to average with any real cold moving further north. It is hard to be hopeful for December. I cannot find any forecasting site that is optimistic for the next few weeks; but at least it is not a static set up, so there is always a chance of a change for the good.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

oddly, i keep reading that ecm isnt keen on cooling the pattern down. i think this is purely down to looking at the operationals. the fi output, which surely has to be looked at via the ens has ecm far stronger on bringing us a nw/se axis jet than gfs which is firmly w-e and naefs (gefs based model) which is sw/ne. there is another ecm 32 dayer currently running which means we need to pay attention to tomorrow meto 30 dayer.

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

obvious 'downgrade' so to speak on the 12Z. the 06 was always on the colder side of things. I think that it will cool - but i'd be suprised if anywhere south of Leeds recorded any persistent temps much below the seasonal average over the next couple of weeks. Love to be wrong, but I doubt the low level snow will arrive till at least mid December and probably not until the new year at some stage or another. (or maybe thats just me repeating my forecast!)

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make no mistake there is a certain trent for things too cool down the back end of this month going into early december.now then just how cold i wouldnt quite know just yet,although i do have a feeling that it may well turn out with day time temps 7/8c in the south and 5/6c in the north,although scotland may be especially colder!as for overnight temps i wouldnt se them that low,perhaps 2/3c on the colder nights,as the weather will be for the most part unsetlled with plenty of cloud around.

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