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Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November


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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

I'm guessing it would bring some chilly air with it? winds coming from the North West?

It would - if you live in Shetland. Standard westerly airflow for the majority.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

I wonder if the pub run will put us back in the freezer by the end? :good:

well 12Z control run around 30th Nov similar to last nights 18Z but outlier

Edited by snow? norfolk n chance
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS 12hrs is fine if you live on a mountain but generally underwhelming for anyone else, again we have the common problem in these situations regarding getting the trough far enough east to be on the cold side of it.

We still don't really lose the Euro high and pressure doesn't fall sufficiently in central Europe, it makes no difference how much cold is sitting to the nw if the trough stalls over the UK because thats where it will stay.

The ensembles have a little more interest but past 168hrs,however these won't be very accurate in picking up shortwaves near Iceland. Remember that unless you have a nw/se jet tilt then these are likely to force ridging ahead of them as they develop and track towards the UK.

In a nut shell unless you get the troughing to the east of the UK and a favourable jet then the trough is likely to become slow moving over the UK and the Euro high will continue to be a problem.

Lets see what the ECM does, hopefully it will go more towards its ensemble mean.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Yeh I don't know how it's thrown up -13c! I can't see it getting lower than -5c myself!

P.S The chart was only done about an hour ago so it is current.

That would be a decent start to winter,even by highland standards!

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Posted
  • Location: Gulberwick, Shetland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, storm force winds
  • Location: Gulberwick, Shetland

It would - if you live in Shetland. Standard westerly airflow for the majority.

I do! Expecting some wintry showers up this way on Friday :)

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

GFS12z operation was a mild outlier by the 29th.

Ensembles in general are slightly below the average indicating a little polar air behind the weather systems which gives areas on high ground a decent chance of snow.

No need for overdoses, the forecast pattern could be much worse.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM is a bit different to GFS

After an unsettled end to the week high pressure builds again

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20111120/12/ecm500.120.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20111120/12/ecm500.144.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20111120/12/ecm500.192.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20111120/12/ecm500.240.png

Looking like it will stay mild according to ECM where as GFS is alot more unsettled.

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

The 12z may seem dissapointing,but we are in a better postition than last week in my opinion. The 18z will be interesting : back to the cold ? or continuing on from the 12z + milder? One thing for sure we are going to experience a different weather pattern than we have had for a while, which is only good in my opinion. All to play for :p

Mark.

Edited by Mark Neal Ox
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Well the pattern change is going from predominant south to south easterlies to predominant south westerlies with occasional Pm influence to the north and west. Again, nothing for coldies to get excited about yet unfortunately.

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

The operational ECM 12z is a stinker as far as cold weather is concerned - back to a Euro High scenario folks.

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk

ECM is a bit different to GFS

After an unsettled end to the week high pressure builds again

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.120.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.144.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.192.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.240.png

Looking like it will stay mild according to ECM where as GFS is alot more unsettled.

Would help if you posted todays charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Would help if you posted todays charts.

Yes sorry about that I though the Netweather ones updated at the same time as wetterzentral. Any way the Euro High is back in late on.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

At least it will be mild still.

Edited by Gavin D
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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

Yes sorry about that I though the Netweather ones updated at the same time as wetterzentral. Any way the Euro High is back in late on.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

At least it will be mild still.

Not with the way ecm has been recently, its had no support from the ensemble mean for the last 2/3 days, what is the betting of it continuing that way?

Viewing all models, I would say ecm is the only one that seems to look lost, however push the pattern more eastwards it would be a lost more interesting I think.

I would appreciate more balance when posting weather charts. You only seem to post things that contain mild synoptics and when none show, you don't post charts.

Edited by snowlover2009
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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

Yet people on TWO are also saying the ECM run is mild.

:cc_confused:

Looks like the Euro high is re developing after its brief disappearance.

I wonder how long the Euro High can last it must be getting on for 2 months now is it?

If only the Euro high could establish its self during our summer months.

I took that quote from TWO. There is not enough support for the ecm to come off, so we are stuck with the unsettled flow for now, the euro high returning is not nailed on by no means and it is only the ecm that shows this and look at how it has been performing lately. It has Been on top as the mildest and nothing like the ecm mean.
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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

JMA close to GFS.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1921.gif

ECM lonely again tonight.

It seems to me as if Gavin is nothing but a mild ramper!! When we do eventually get a cold spell i guess he will be hibernating and re-appear come the first sign of temperatures above 10-12c. Anyway One run from the ECM doesn't mean its gonna be mild, infact there have been hints at not a huge cold spell or snowy, but of a cooldown which would be a reality check to those that have reached the dizzy heighs of 13-16c in recent weeks.

Mark.

The ecm has been an outlier for the last 3 or so runs. JMA continues with the unsettled and change to cooler conditions with PM air and windy weather and the thread of wintriness on high ground in the north.
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Yet people on TWO are also saying the ECM run is mild.

:cc_confused:

I also said on TWO that it was trending average to mild down south (at the end of the GFS run at 2m temps.) but was told that the ensemble is cool, and cooling. Sometimes even the apparent obvious charts are not correct! Apparently the warmer charts are outliers. The trend is cooler. I bow to the greater knowledge.

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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

Yet people on TWO are also saying the ECM run is mild.

:cc_confused:

Hi Gavin There's no point just looking at the operational run . Its far better to wait for the ensembles to come out before commenting. A run may look very mild or totally arctic but if its an outlier it is very unlikely to be what actually happens down the line.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

If the ECM verifies its certainly the final nail in the coffin for the European ski resorts in terms of early December skiing, absolutely dreadful output.

Someone please nuke this Euro high!

The ECM is of course not supported by any other longer range output and hasn't been very representative of its ensembles however its not the best global model by chance.

If we put aside everything after 168hrs and stick to a comparison of the general output there is close agreement on the overall pattern, it does look like the Newfoundland high pressure will likely verify.

How much this impacts down stream in Europe is still open to debate.

Edited by nick sussex
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Poor outputs again today.

ECM in particular is setting up a coninutation of the dreadful pattern of the last 8 weeks with heights over Europe and a very poor NH profile.

November is stone cold dead as far as any wintry weather in concerned and id hazzard a guess if ecm is anywhere near correct we can quite write off the first week of Dec at least.

Still not even a frost here and its looking unlikely there will be one in the next 10 days at least.

Abysmal.

Scottish mountains may see some white stuff next week which is welcome news for the ski industry.

lol nick i was saying exactly the same thing 2 seconds after you psted.

Edited by happy days
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Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL


  • If the ECM verifies its certainly the final nail in the coffin for the European ski resorts in terms of early December skiing, absolutely dreadful output.
    Someone please nuke this Euro high!
    The ECM is of course not supported by any other longer range output and hasn't been very representative of its ensembles however its not the best global model by chance.
    If we put aside everything after 168hrs and stick to a comparison of the general output there is close agreement on the overall pattern, it does look like the Newfoundland high pressure will likely verify.
    How much this impacts down stream in Europe is still open to debate.

  • Could not agree more Nick,When will this break. Been following post's for a week now and as for Output well its like riding the waves in the north sea. Something needs to change pretty soon. Hopefully the LP system coming in can be the key

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Models continue to paint a very typical outlook for the end of November - strong westerly airstream heights over europe and a strong polar vortex, the outlook is a marked change from the last two months and welcomed in my book at least there looks like being some weather to talk about in the coming days.

Longer term - ECM keen on maintaining the strong heights over europe, but also suggesting some strong ridge development over NE USA ridging into the west mid atlantic, but also low pressure to our SW - quite odd it has to be said. GFS also keen on strong ridge development over NE USA coast/SE Canada coast - we could see some strong heights rises in the mid atlantic by early december which may help to produce a more sustained period of at least average or slightly below average temps - a long way off and such a synoptic would not deliver anything especially cold but would please many cold lovers I suspect.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The Euro High is really a response to other factors, not the determining one. The differences between the GFS and ECM runs don't really matter because secondary features would develop on the jet streak anyway which would pull the jet further North and lead to a Euro High further North.

Nothing to suggest there are going to be changes upstream, I would expect us to be in the same boat in 2 weeks time.

Of course we've only got this high because of the upstream pattern, but I'd still like to nuke it though!

It's now a real concern for the European ski industry, especially if we end up back to the limpet trough to the west and Euro high.

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Of course we've only got this high because of the upstream pattern, but I'd still like to nuke it though!

It's now a real concern for the European ski industry, especially if we end up back to the limpet trough to the west and Euro high.

You would have to say this is a genuinally distinct posibilty nick.And much as it pains me to say i think Ian is going to be close to the mark regarding where we are in 2 weeks time.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey

This Euro high is brilliant and long may it last until end of year. GFS tries to change pattern downstream but keeps backing off whereas ECM keeps it going.

Perfect for building my double extension, no frost, no rain except for 2 heavy shower days in last 7 weeks. Brickwork up and roof going on.

Plus the gas bills gonna be really low :-)

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