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29th November - 6th December 2011 Atlantic Storms


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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
Posted

where about are u helen? im in wick wish it was here lol

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Posted

Still think that is massively incorrect, it's showing mean speeds of 70mph+ being recorded which is violent storm force 11 nearly hurricane force 12 and I'm pretty sure NW Scotland would have a red alert in place if this was the case, it was showing this the other day when other stations over the Western Isles were reporting winds of only 15-20mph. Plus the gauges are indicating the gusts are lower than the mean speeds.

according to the guy who runs it they are correct figures.

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

according to the guy who runs it they are correct figures.

I would be a highly suspicious of that, it's currently showing wind speeds double that of Stornoway and other stations over exposed N Scotland/Isles. The weather station constantly reads much higher than any other official station, including the K5 buoy.

Stornoway atm 14mph westerly wind, eoropie showing 40-50mph, something isn't right.

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

The weather this weekend is almost the exact opposite wind and rain wise to what was predicted at the beginning of the week!

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Nice frontal/trough system working down in the Midlands right now, seems to be pepping up in the last few hours as it slowly moves SSE with some fairly potent returns in the Wolves area right now.

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
Posted

Nice frontal/trough system working down in the Midlands right now, seems to be pepping up in the last few hours as it slowly moves SSE with some fairly potent returns in the Wolves area right now.

Looking at the cells behind this system.....Just wondering about the 31% storm chance issued for the area, will have much validity

Posted

With most of the attention on the cold weather at the moment its easy to forget about the wind.

For Wednesday its looking windy for most of Scotland and Northern England,

Also Met Office have a early watch out for Thursday for all of Scotland.

Winds will increase during Thursday afternoon and evening and gusts of 60 to 70 mph could become quite widespread across Scotland, with 80 mph gusts possible over exposed coasts and hills.

Heavy rain and hill snow are likely to accompany the strengthening winds but detail this far ahead is impossible to pin down.

Although I only think the far North will get the worse of it,

Posted

Update on the 12z GFS,

First of all it looks like the windy weather for Wednesday has been pushed further south,

Meanwhile Thursday and Friday night look rather interesting,

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted

I posted in the weather updates thread earlier that a shower streamer had been moving just to my South through last night and today. The edge of the most recent shower caught here about an hour ago, however just a few miles to my South has had around half an inch of rain in the last 12 hours.

It's on days like this that the NW Radar and its' features really become beneficial.

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Watch out Scotland and N England on Thursday! I've been focusing on the cold and snow situation and seem to have over looked the storm potential for Wednesday and more importantly Thursday, look at these charts from the UKMO 12z, it's not often this model progs such deep depressions.

Severe gales or storm force winds from this beast N England northwards.

post-9615-0-92677500-1323107259_thumb.gi

post-9615-0-28758500-1323107274_thumb.gi

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Still looking bad on the GFS 18z,

Wednesday,

And the GFS 18z seems to agree more with the ECM rather than the UKMO on Thursdays low which looks rather serious for most of the country,

Two rather serious wind events being progged over the coming days with widespread severe gales and storm force winds over N England and Scotland, potentially very significant events causing damage and disruption.

post-9615-0-85914900-1323124356_thumb.gi

post-9615-0-62152500-1323124363_thumb.gi

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Still on course for some extremely windy weather over the coming days, Later tonight a small but rather intense depression runs down from the NW and will bring gales or severe gales over Northern UK before moving away eastwards, then an even deeper depression moves in from the Atlantic during Thursday bringing stronger winds maybe even storm force, colder air behind this low could lead to blizzard conditions across the north.

Meto have gusts to 79mph for my location tomorrow morning!

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Some small potential for extreme weather and not in the places you might expect:

gfs_stp_eur30.png

gfs_srh_eur30.png

hir_stp_eur54.png

hir_srh_eur54.png

Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
Posted

Please expand Coast. Ive always struggled to try and interpret those excellent charts you post !

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

watch for a storm surge down the N Sea behind the low this weekend?

Posted
  • Location: Caithness
  • Location: Caithness
Posted

liam, whereabouts are you? ILm on mobile site canna see locations, i take it orkney or shetland? Meto has caithness with 61mph gusts and netweather says 79mph gusts for me. Do they use different charts? I never quite understood that. Netweather always seems a better forecast for winds.

to clarify the wind forecast i said above is for thursday night, friday morning.

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

LOL Helen how you doing? I'm in West Cumbria, the low tonight and tomorrow morning will affect areas to the west, N Ireland, West and South Scotland and NW England. Slight downgrade with the Meto wind speeds to 71mph gusts here. Netw use GFS data I believe and Meto will most likely use the UKMO and NAE models, however a balanced view will be looking at all the raw data available and the Meto use human input on the final forecast versions. I think the online forecasts are auto generated.

The storm predicted Thursday and Friday will batter Northern Britain, gusts of 80-90mph over Scotland - watch out!

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Severe gales and heavy snow for NW England during Thursday! Early warning issued on the Meto, this has blizzards wriitten all over it!! No mention of the wind overnight tonight and tomorrow morning, Meto have severe gales and gusts of up to 70mph+ for a time on my town forecast with no warning.

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Posted

Looking at weather online and comparing charts to the GFS more less all of them agree it will get around the high 960mb and low 970mb range when it passes over compared to the GFS that pushes it down to 954mb and later 950mb. Perhaps a downgrade from the GFS this afternoon?

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Looking at weather online and comparing charts to the GFS more less all of them agree it will get around the high 960mb and low 970mb range when it passes over compared to the GFS that pushes it down to 954mb and later 950mb. Perhaps a downgrade from the GFS this afternoon?

Or an upgrade on the other models?

''A noteable period of severe weather is expected'' > http://www.ukweather...r-Warnings.aspx :crazy::help:

The ECM & UKMO get down to 960-962hpa off the NE of Scotland, I expect a few minor changes with this Winter storm over the next day or two.

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Please expand Coast. Ive always struggled to try and interpret those excellent charts you post !

Whoop sorry I missed this earlier. I think basically It's one of the ingredients for convective storms but with more of a concentration on tornado and funnel type, helical activity. The explanation notes that go with those Lightning Wizard charts state:

The way these are plotted reflects the commonly cited 'threshold' levels, although there is some margin. Deep layer shear around 20 kts (10 m/s, weak to moderate) is often sufficient to sustain redevelopment of new cells at outflow boundaries next to older cells, and support multicell storms and mesoscale convective systems (MCS), the latter especially when sufficient dynamic forcing is present. More shear will cause a gradual transition from discrete (stepwise) renewing cell growth to more steady-state storms, with the downdraft less interfering with the updraft so that cells can live longer. 30 kts (15 m/s) or more will usually lead to pretty well organised storms with weakly supercellular characteristics, and capable of producing large hail. Usually 40 kts (20 m/s) is taken as threshold value for supercells, meaning that the storm is able to develop and sustain a rotating updraft. Supercells are very capable of producing large hail (>2 cm), severe downdrafts and tornadoes

http://lightningwiza...WeatherMaps.pdf

Here's another one that is fairly self explanatory:

hir_gusts_eur54.png

The convective gust speed in shaded colours is simply the pressure-weighted average of surface to 700 hPa winds, and is intended to give an indication what to expect when a downdraft digs down through a layer of high winds, bringing the momentum down to the surface. It may already be very windy, but normally over land the ratio between gust speed and 10 minute average winds does not exceed 1.7 or so (1.4 over sea) with some margin. A gust significantly enhanced by deep convection could well yield higher gust factors (one can often use SYNOP or METAR to determine this).

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