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Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ukmo 12z is a major stumbling block to getting a cold snap south of inverness next week, hopefully we will get at least something half as cold as the gfs 12z, it's best to take the coldest and most wintry run and then expect something half way to avoid disappointment.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

naefs remains progressive in deep fi. This trend is to bring blocking over the southern half of the uk with a mean souwester over the north. The next 10 days or so may only be a short relief to the 'drought' in the south and east.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

The ukmo 12z is a major stumbling block to getting a cold snap south of inverness next week, hopefully we will get at least something half as cold as the gfs 12z, it's best to take the coldest and most wintry run and then expect something half way to avoid disappointment.

Interesting to see BBC going for maxes of only 3 and 4 degrees over much of scotland and far north of england by Friday and this is before the projected proper injection of cold- BBC is often very conservative when it comes to temps and also shows maxes for towns and cities. It is also based on UKMO models - so I wouldn't be surprised to see the next run follow ECM/GFS suit of a cold NW blast for the weekend.

I said it will be tomorrow night before we can say with confidence whether we are about to see our first 'wintry' spell of the season this weekend - but the signs do look positive, conditions in Scotland could be very severe - but as ever caution is the word and we may see shortwaves spoil the party nearer the time - conversely these may only help to prolong the cold as we see renewed attacks from the NW..

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

naefs remains progressive in deep fi. This trend is to bring blocking over the southern half of the uk with a mean souwester over the north. The next 10 days or so may only be a short relief to the 'drought' in the south and east.

This fits with GP's post on the stratospheric thread, saying that the jet will be very active for the next 4-6 weeks and models won't make good viewing during this period.

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Holland disaster.

A good bit of weather through Britain and Ireland as well.

Hold on to your hats

Rtavn1561.png

That secondary must be watched like a hawk, GFS obviously out of range but singals gusts above 100mph for Holland.

A marginal snow event for UK too and the storm could trash southern England

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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk

Holland disaster.

A good bit of weather through Britain and Ireland as well.

Hold on to your hats

Rtavn1561.png

That secondary must be watched like a hawk, GFS obviously out of range but singals gusts above 100mph for Holland.

A marginal snow event for UK too and the storm could trash southern England

If that verified i'd be picking my roof up from the lawn! In addition there would be a significant flood risk from storm surges down the east of England. Lets hope the models downgrade this as it would be a serious event.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Anyone for the outlook looking stormier and colder early Dec with each passing day on the models? This isn't average to mild weather coming folks, stormy and fairly cold is more like it. This weekend 2-4 Dec is being honed by the models for a very tasty storm indeed and is a tad concerning. Like I say, dec will chuck it all at us and we are entering a very juicy weather period.

As regards to the AZH coming back in on FI, I have a thought that it isn't going to be as influential as that. Indeed if one looks at GPs analogues there is an anomaly of mainly low pressure over the UK in Dec and not HP so that enhances my thoughts of HP building from the south not being the main player ahead. It may play a part..but.

As per previous week or two as we approached the proposed pattern change lets see how the models evolve this week for this weekend and into next week...because they have certainly brought and evolved into a far more interesting pattern than many thought. First it was Euro HP to dominate upto Xmas, now that has changed the zonal average to mild will dominate into mid Jan. Well its evolving folks and a colder picture is appearing, lets see what develops but lets get this weekend out of the way as its quite an explosive fast flow pattern showing and detail will vary somewhat.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Regarding the Atlantic storm for the weekend I expect it will be Wednesday/Thursday before we can be certain of the exact details and track of the depression, to far at this stage to speculate on specifics.

Typical GFS blows another storm up and sends near hurricane force winds into somewhere near Holland, so much going on at the moment to have any high confidence on any exact LP developments past 2-3 days, expect changes.

Very disturbed run from start to finish, severe wind storm events will occur over the next week or so but the detail will change from run to run on where these may occur and impact.

The atmosphere is has moved into 6th gear, hold on everyone it's gonna be a rough old ride!

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

Well if that GFS run comes off as is there's probably a lot of damage going to happen with low after low whipping fierce winds around the south, I'm thinking I should leave repairing that fence for a few weeks, it'll only get blown down anyway.... :help:

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

well what can i say ,good times a coming , some realy good charts about but which ones will verify , . i think some where in NW /europe will take a pounding this weekend ,im also fairly confident that some good smaller features will develope . i hope if things turn nasty that everyone stays safe . some very good input on this forum today , regards ,legritter . :help::good:

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

A massive upgrade to the snow potential next Monday, but, a downgrade slightly for the severity of cold.

The GFS keeps showing slightly different outcomes, but every single run today and yesterday has gone for at least some sort of significant (although perhaps brief) cold spell

Now the ECM has backed it up, I cant see this not happening now. Whether Central England actually gets low-level snow remains to be seen, but according to the 18z and 12z, quite likely it would seem.

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

This needs to be watched very very carefully.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png

It could bring some very extreme conditions to the uk in all weather types. Winds, snow and rain wise. Could be a very dangerous period coming up and a very eventful start to winter after the dire autumn. No deep freeze like last year, but some very exciting weather showing if you are a fan of the type of storms and high rainfall etc. Could also be some decent snow showers in the north for high ground with the cold uppers being progged. The gfs has support from other models with a very dangerous low showing early next week.

Lets just say if that came off, it would be a very historic day country wide.

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

iv just posted and cant believe the other posts that came up , at least its not just me fearing the worst ,it takes me ages to post, old computer and one letter one finger ,cheers

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Don't stress out and take that GFS hurricane all to seriously, it's still over a week away and that's an age in weather and model outputs!

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

coastal flooding and widespread destruction and deaths could result if that verified.

Sounds very dramatic but it is true! That would make the papers and headlines across the whole of the uk. It could be a very extreme day if that came off. Massive destruction would never be ruled out. As I said, it would be very historic day.

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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk

Rtavn1568.png

Hope the Dutch have their Levees in good nick.

No sign of anything settled for the whole of the GFS run. Atlantic in full force.

Don't forget much of Norfolk and Suffolk are low lying - we'd be hammered by a storm such as this. It will be interesting to see what subsequent runs are like and whether the ECM/UKMO show a similar set up in the morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Whilst its always best to be prepared and would urge people to be on the cautious side in terms of making plans and staying tune with forecasts when weather like that is progged its also worthy of a little caution when viewing a model run a week away from a model with an undoubted bias towards these sort of charts, certainly talking of death and widespread distruction is well over the top at this stage.

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

Blizzards eventually on the northern edge of that massive low for northern England, as the cold uppers dig in behind it, if it verified. Just wow.

Whilst its always best to be prepared and would urge people to be on the cautious side in terms of making plans and staying tune with forecasts when weather like that is progged its also worthy of a little caution when viewing a model run a week away from a model with an undoubted bias towards these sort of charts, certainly talking of death and widespread distruction is well over the top at this stage.

Urm no its not. No one is saying it is going to verify, we are just saying a low like that would definitely bring a lot of destruction and death. All storms which are fairly strong, have the potential for death anyway. But if it came off, all the above couldn't be ruled out, particularly destruction.
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