Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December

[jpwild]

Long time lurker and I know nothing about weather, but fascinated by model thread and reading everyone's thoughts.

Just a question and though, what would these latest charts show for the Manchester area and the area between Manchester and Buxton which is about elevation of 600-800 feet asl? Obvoiously a lot of worry for various areas, but not to sure about the areas just listed.

[Liam J]

Whilst its always best to be prepared and would urge people to be on the cautious side in terms of making plans and staying tune with forecasts when weather like that is progged its also worthy of a little caution when viewing a model run a week away from a model with an undoubted bias towards these sort of charts, certainly talking of death and widespread distruction is well over the top at this stage.

I couldn't agree more, the GFS is renowned for over doing LP systems in FI.

The 18z GFS control run on the other hand shows nothing like the the OP run with the modelling of this depression, and progs a much more toned down version.

Edited November 28, 2011 by Liam J

[feb1991blizzard]

Mind you i would say that the heavier the rain and the wilder the weather, the more margin you have with thicknesses, and uppers so more chance of it turning wintry.

[feb1991blizzard]

Long time lurker and I know nothing about weather, but fascinated by model thread and reading everyone's thoughts.

Just a question and though, what would these latest charts show for the Manchester area and the area between Manchester and Buxton which is about elevation of 600-800 feet asl? Obvoiously a lot of worry for various areas, but not to sure about the areas just listed.

If your talking about the GFS then either of todays runs would produce some hefty snow showers for that location and my location but at this stage unlikely to veryfy, certainly in its entirety, my guess is what will verify is something inbetween that run and the UKMO which was probably flattening the pattern too much.

[Dale Leigh_6487]

i think this storm could happen. look what happened a few days ago where the low pressure north of scotland bombed, this is what the forcasters refered it as so i think we should take this seriously. the models have shown this a few times now.

[Upgrade]

talking of death and widespread distruction is well over the top at this stage.

sorry if i offended anyone, i thought it a fair analysis of the consequence of that chart verifying. It is only 6 days away, and given all the other signals looks like there may well be cause for concern. appreciate GFS overcooks lows but this looks more likely than not to come off , in my opinion.

[Liam J]

i think this storm could happen. look what happened a few days ago where the low pressure north of scotland bombed, this is what the forcasters refered it as so i think we should take this seriously. the models have shown this a few times now.

The only depression the models are in agreement with in the medium term is the on the which moves over the Atlantic from Newfoundland, the one you are referring to is the first time the GFS has shown such a severe storm system.

One run on the GFS with little support which shows a hurricane force storm a week into the future and people are now say it's going to come off!

Edited November 28, 2011 by Liam J

[I Cumbria Marra I]

What sort of winds we talking? mph

[nick sussex]

Awful GFS 18hrs run with that very deep low, the GFS did the same yesterday and is supported by tonights ECM, if it was just the GFS I wouldn't be so worried.

The UKMO fax chart at 120hrs has followed the UKMO raw output and not the ECM, the UKMO 144hrs wouldn't develop in the same way as the ECM/GFS in terms of that deep low, disappointing perhaps for those wanting that PM flow but probably a relief for those in that storms track.

However although the pattern is expected to flatten out later I'm not convinced that the UKMO has called the upstream pattern correctly within 144hrs, initially that ridge in the east Pacific would lead to more amplification with troughing in the USA.

Anyway let's really hope this low is downgraded or doesn't verify, I may have slept through that October storm of 1987! but I was certainly awake here for storm Klaus in January 2009.

[snowlover2009]

I think the storm potential is still there regardless if it downgrades. It needs watching, the start of next week has been the signal to show something interesting and the weekend This week itself will be interesting.

Edited November 28, 2011 by IanM
tidying up

[Bobby]

Blimey

[jpwild]

I gave up coiunting those ISO bars.

[snowlover2009]

Blimey

It looks more severe when you look at it like this!

[Jhonny Peter Carson]

My days. Something special happening in the models.

[cheshire snow]

Whilst its always best to be prepared and would urge people to be on the cautious side in terms of making plans and staying tune with forecasts when weather like that is progged its also worthy of a little caution when viewing a model run a week away from a model with an undoubted bias towards these sort of charts, certainly talking of death and widespread distruction is well over the top at this stage.

Agree 100% no need to cause alarm and panic at this stage,i am sure if this system still shows as vicious

in acouple of days time alot of people may sit up and notice.....chance of that storm Happening as shown on

the pub run about 10% imo

C.S

[IanM]

Take a deep breath and stick to the models please. If something upsets, offends or just takes a stroll off topic please report it and keep the posts in here on topic. we do read the thread and also respond to reports, so lets keep on track please. There's plenty to discuss in the model run tonight without getting distracted.

Thanks

Ian

[feb1991blizzard]

sorry if i offended anyone, i thought it a fair analysis of the consequence of that chart verifying. It is only 6 days away, and given all the other signals looks like there may well be cause for concern. appreciate GFS overcooks lows but this looks more likely than not to come off , in my opinion.

You havent offended me and it is model output so your entitled to your opinion but i think we would have ample warning from the Met office so i just thought perhaps a little over the top although i definately think there will be some interesting weather around and i love severe weather myself although obviously i wouldnt want death to occur.

[Dale Leigh_6487]

The only depression the models are in agreement with in the medium term is the on the which moves over the Atlantic from Newfoundland, the one you are referring to is the first time the GFS has shown such a severe storm system.

One run on the GFS with little support which shows a hurricane force storm a week into the future and people are now say it's going to come off!

bbc have a video out talking about the stormy weather and saying much colder later on. still think this could happen but like you say it's only one run so may be 50/50 chance.

[Liam J]

I think the storm potential is still there regardless if it downgrades. It needs watching, the start of next week has been the signal to show something interesting and the weekend This week itself will be interesting.

I was merely stating the fact I did not say or or try to imply you were off topic.

Apologies, no offence intended.

Edited November 28, 2011 by Liam J

[Cheese Rice]

Nice eye candy on the 18Z tonight, as that is all it is.

We are too far away for anything like this to come of as projected, perhaps a good thing too.

Although if it did happen we would see storm force winds with a band of torrential rain pushing in, rapidly turning to snow as -5 850's push in behind. It would mean for many a blizzard of epic proportions. Which I'm not going to lie I would love to see, I don't think I've ever seen a true blizzard. Although it would be a good idea if the winds would die down, gusting up to 70/80mph seems about right before a storm gets too severe.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

What sort of winds we talking? mph

[nick sussex]

I'd advise people to look at the archives for 23rd to 25 January 2009 to see how what at first hand looked like a little shortwave developing at the base of that trough turned into absolute carnage here in France.

Nick F is very good at storm development, hopefully he will be on here tomorrow, he was fantastic in giving loads of info for both of the two big storms we've seen down here.

[kold weather]

That is an insane low. It very likely is being overdone BUT the idea of a quickly developing low is certainly NOT out of the question, the pattern is primed for a big storm at some point over the UK, it just depends on location really.

ECM blows up the low as well so whilst early days, I'd take this particular system rather seriously. ECM and GFS both drop this LP's centeral pressure by a solid 30-40mbs in 24hrs which suggests a pretty condusive set-up for a bombing low.Depending on timing a small risk fos now on the back-edge on higher ground but the winds would be the real story here.

[phil nw.]

Awful GFS 18hrs run with that very deep low, the GFS did the same yesterday and is supported by tonights ECM, if it was just the GFS I wouldn't be so worried.

The UKMO fax chart at 120hrs has followed the UKMO raw output and not the ECM, the UKMO 144hrs wouldn't develop in the same way as the ECM/GFS in terms of that deep low, disappointing perhaps for those wanting that PM flow but probably a relief for those in that storms track.

However although the pattern is expected to flatten out later I'm not convinced that the UKMO has called the upstream pattern correctly within 144hrs, initially that ridge in the east Pacific would lead to more amplification with troughing in the USA.

Anyway let's really hope this low is downgraded or doesn't verify, I may have slept through that October storm of 1987! but I was certainly awake here for storm Klaus in January 2009.

Looking at GEFS Nick the Op very much a stormy run against the mean.

http://176.31.229.22...ndres&runpara=0

500hpa much colder and pcpn higher.

A glance at the mean chart at T150 shows a less worrying synopsis.

http://www.meteociel...&ech=150&mode=0 --Op

http://www.meteociel...ode=0&runpara=0 - mean

Quite a dramatic run throughout though and plenty of energy spinning towards us off that Vortex.

Whatever the detail there`s some wild weather about in thenext week or so that`s for sure.

Edited November 28, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[snowlover2009]

The ensembles look fairly cold:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png

No days above 8c according to the mean

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png