So What Is Really Going On?

[phil47uk]

Ok I'm a musician and we were having this debate on the Les Paul forum, except no bugger really knew what they were talking about re weather, ( Including me ) So I'll ask this question in laymans terms. :lol:

So what is actually happening with all this Gore C02 thing and that global warming is all a big scam.

You look at one site and it says we are heading for global warming. You look at another and it says a new ice age is on it's way.. Duhhhhhhhh!

Piers Corbyn, who they say was the only person to get the weather right last year seems under the impression that there is some big scam going on and that we are heading for a new mini ice age.

I haven't a clue, so I'd like to hear what some of you guys have to say about the whole thing. What actually is happening. Are we heating up because of all mans C02 emissions, or are we cooling down as Corbyn suggested, as C02 according to him doesn't cause circulation patterns and solar activity Minimum sunspots etc ) are pointing toward very cold future weather.

I'll pass on your thoughts to the musos of the world..

So what do you guys make of what this guy says?

Edited November 28, 2011 by phil47uk

[Roger J Smith]

More like an overplayed hand than an outright hoax, in my opinion. We are adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and it must be having an effect on global temperatures, but natural variations may be as much as three-quarters of the reason for warmings observed in recent decades. The real controversy in the science at present is to determine that fraction accurately. Most people studying the question will agree that some percentage of warming is natural. The consensus at present may be fairly close to 50-50 (half the warming is natural, half is down to human activity). That sort of range indicates that we are some distance from a full understanding of the problem. At fractions greater than half, natural variability can still produce long-term cooling despite the warming effects of greenhouse gases. At smaller fractions, the warming is likely to continue but perhaps very slowly. There are also unknowns around limiting factors. Computer models that showed runaway warming earlier in the AGW study era might have missed naturally occurring limitations on warming, for example, ice in the arctic melts, but that increases snowfall and dilutes salt content. Or warmer weather produces more cloud and rain in some climates, changing the balance in unforeseen ways. You'll get a different answer from every member of this forum, I'm sure, but the overall theme will be uncertainty if you get a lot of responses. I've always thought "hoax" was a misreading of the situation, I'm sure the science was developed sincerely and not with outright fraud in mind -- the warming hypothesis looked more certain back around 1998 to 2003 with trends then in place, continued to look fairly plausible through 2007, but has since started to look more questionable as colder European winters and other global trends have shaken confidence among AGW proponents and fueled skepticism. Some future warming trend will reverse that, but my belief is that by about 2050, one of two things will happen, either natural limitations on climate change will become fairly obvious, or technological change will remove the human component of the problem.

[Wivenswold]

Ah the great unknown. There's very little doubt in the scientific community that the average temperature of the plant is increasing. What is not known is how that will effect each area. The breakdown of the North Atlantic Drift would certainly plunge the UK into seriously cold winters.

The recent cold glitch appears to have been caused by a reduction in energy being given off by the sun but we are now coming out of the slack spell and this is perhaps evidenced by the warmer Autumn. But I'm not an expert in such things.

One thing I should say is that Piers Corbyn is a character of little credibility in the UK. He makes dramatic claims about forthcoming weather events that mostly don't appear. When he eventually does get it right he goes overboard telling everyone that he's better than the Met Office. There was "even more to come" of the snow and ice in January according to Corbyn. It never came.

[full_frontal_occlusion]

You won't get a definitive answer - sorry. This site is populated by weather professionals, amatuers and lay public and the extremes of views are as evident here as anywhere else in the public domain.

On the one hand you have those who are clear AGW is a clear signal above any natural forcing and have taken the view it is better to try something than nothing even if it is ultimately futile - though that is far from certain.

On the other hand you have those who view any intervention as arrogance and the fallacy of AGW only serves to threaten their way of life. (Ironic that both sides see a threat?)

Then there are those caught in the middle - waiting for more evidence before committing. But what will that evidence look like? Better computer models? Famine and death year upon year? Widespread and cyclical drought in temperate climates with crop failure etc?

Then there is the politicisation of the issue and current global economics. Governments and individuals are only concerned with clear and present danger. Like Maslow's 'hierarchy of needs', AGW sits at the top of the social needs spectrum long after the basic survival needs of food, water, shelter, health etc. priorities.

Sadly, this is an issue which will not be resolved now or even in the next several decades. It will be one for history to recall as either the greatest display of humankinds arrogance or the most outrageous example of ignorance.

ffO.

[phil47uk]

Thanks guys for some really interesting and honest replies..

Well, us musicians are no wiser, so if you lot are in the dark about it, we've no chance. :lol:

I must say that Corbyn talks the talk to the layman , but I wanted to know if he also walked the walk as far as you guys are concerned.

A bit like the music biz.. There is enough stuff on you-tube re guitar tuition to sink a battleship, but most of it is complete crap, stuck on there by amateurs.

My youngest sons fiance is Russian and her dad is sending me over an officers Ushenka to wear, so I can take our two German shepherds out for a walk without my ears falling off from frostbite when Corbyns sub artic temperatures hit in January. :lol:

They laugh over there and say they probably don't go out much in Moscow if it falls below -30.

-30.. :unsure: You've got to be kidding.. I stay in if it drops past -3 here in west Dorset..

Anyway thanks again folks and if any of you ever need any guitar related tips don't hesitate in asking...