Cold Spell Discussion

[Cheese Rice]

North Westerly winds are heading our way and with that an increasing risk of snow for many parts of the UK.

Even though theres the regional thread the models seem favorable for Northern England, N.Ireland and Scotland which will make the England thread quite in comparison.

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Anyway...

GFS projects showers to move inland on Monday arriving at the coldest part of the day (6am).

A temporary covering even down to lower levels if the showers penetrate inland.

850s -6/-7

Freezing level doesn't look good, then again I only really use them in frontal scenarios.

Edited November 30, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[A Winter's Tale]

Yup, anywhere north of Manchester might see some snow. I'm actually quite excited about the potential for my first snowfall of the winter and the start to my winter blog (and hopefully a cold winter with plenty of brilliant winter weather in each of the 3 months).

[Cheese Rice]

We could see some back edge snowfall on Sunday night even if it is only temporarily.

Edited November 30, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[kold weather]

This is the sort of set-up that will be good for thos exposed to a NW/WNW wind on higher ground in the north. Of course there is a real shot of some snow/sleet/hail showers as well early next week, even after uppers rise a little if there is enough instablity aloft.

[Cheese Rice]

Perhaps the 18Z is overestimating the snow potential but even on Tuesday when 850s are above -5 all PPN is shown as sleet for the bulk of the UK till the next plume of -5 air comes back,

Edited November 30, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[AderynCoch]

Don't hold much hope for my area - the synoptics scream "marginal", which nearly always means disappointment for me.

Hope to eye some falling sleet/snow though.

[A Winter's Tale]

There could be a few more potential polar maritime "plumes" over the UK beyond Monday (which should be the main event). -6C uppers for Glasgow and much of Central Scotland is marginal but perhaps in heavier showers there could be a few flakes.

[Costa Del Fal]

I wonder if there is potential for the Cheshire gap streamer to set up. Lower winds dont look favourable but upper winds appear to be for a time.

[conor123]

It will probably be a tad to mild for anything to exciting this far south although I expect some wintryness in any showers at least hopefully.

[summer blizzard]

Models were flirting with giving me snow from the secondary low which was going to move through Monday however they have now backed off and it looks like i shall get nothing.

If the westerly flow is strong enough then i may be able to catch a snow shower however i expect sunshine.

At the very least it should be cold with maxima of about 6C for a few days.

[A Winter's Tale]

BBC Forecast for nearest location suggests rain at 0C on Sunday Night. Precipiation at 0c on a December Night - must surely be snow about!

[Mark Neal.]

I know my area stands no chance of the white stuff being down in Southern England, but will be eagerly awaiting news/updates of snow falling for the guys up in Northern England,Scotland and potentially Northern Ireland. It's not the best situation for snow fanatatics but for sure a much better picture than the one we were all looking at only a week or so ago. All the best. Mark.

[ZONE 51]

500hpa upper temps, monday 1200hrs

!!

next 850 hpa upper temps,

-8 up North -5 South cold enough for sleet wet snow in heavier stuff in south(hills)

Edited December 1, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Mark Neal.]

I guess you would be looking at the Chilterns for sleet or at the very best wet snow, but i think that is very unlikely. Won't be too long hopefully before even us Southerner's get our first snowflakes falling

[A Winter's Tale]

500hpa upper temps, monday 1200hrs

!!

next 850 hpa upper temps,

-8 up North -5 South cold enough for sleet wet snow in heavier stuff in south(hills)

Well -7C uppers in Central Scotland isn't bad.

However unexpectedly I've already had my first snowfall of the winter under this front!

[syed2878]

its exciting to heare about snow. Some r saying snow as far as the midlands so i'm hoping to c a flake or 2 in brum.

[Aaron]

Probably will be cold enough for sleet/snow here, but with the wind in the North West, any precipitation probably won't make it here. Well, I can hope as much!

[Isolated Frost]

As many areas seem to have a gap, 'Otley', 'Cheshire', I thought we should have one in the north-east... during nw'ly winds we usually bypass the influence of the pennines (to the west) and of the highlands (to the north), along with anything between SW-S-SE-E-NE-N, NW is another way we can get precipitation. If the wind is WNW/W/WSW we usually will see no precipitation or very isolated showers. Like Aaron, temperatures will be cold enough here, but the precipitation may not.

[Cheese Rice]

Colder air here now, after a very mild 9.c at 2:40am temperatures ahave been at or below 5.c for the most of the day.

[summer blizzard]

Colder air here now, after a very mild 9.c at 2:40am temperatures ahave been at or below 5.c for the most of the day.

No snow forecast for LS1 although we do get almost to 0C at times and there is no double figure maxima forecast during the next seven days.

Given that this is the cold spell discussion thread, will we be using this as the frost monitoring thread during the cold spell?

[Snowmadsam]

what about western wales, could we get a covering out of this?

[A Winter's Tale]

what about western wales, could we get a covering out of this?

If central Scotland is unlikely to get any accumilating snow then I would imagine that a dusting in Western Wales would be very unlikely.

[Snowmadsam]

If central Scotland is unlikely to get any accumilating snow then I would imagine that a dusting in Western Wales would be very unlikely.

oh..ok thanks

[Aaron]

If central Scotland is unlikely to get any accumilating snow then I would imagine that a dusting in Western Wales would be very unlikely.

Depends on elevation. You're more likely to see settling snow in the Wales hills then the Scottish lowlands I'd say, 'specially when you consider urban heat (Central belt of Scotland is very urban)

[A Winter's Tale]

Depends on elevation. You're more likely to see settling snow in the Wales hills then the Scottish lowlands I'd say, 'specially when you consider urban heat (Central belt of Scotland is very urban)

200ft above sea level here but we're considerably cooler than Glasgow and other large towns as the village I live in is amongst the countryside to the north of the city.